Lightning vs. Avalanche prediction, odds and best bet for Oct. 23, 2026

The Colorado Avalanche are favored to beat the Tampa Bay Lightning on Friday, according to Dimers' NHL pregame model.

Our Lightning vs. Avalanche prediction gives Colorado a 53.9% chance of winning at Ball Arena, with the latest odds also suggesting value in betting on the Avalanche to win.

Lightning vs. Avalanche: Key predictions

• Avalanche win probability: 53.9%
• Lightning win probability: 46.0%
• Lightning +1.5 puck line: 67.3% cover probability
• Under 6.5 goals: 54.6% probability

Dimers' NHL pregame model estimates how many goals each team is likely to score, accounting for factors such as recent form, shooting and save percentages, home-ice advantage, and rest.

These projections power our NHL predictions, which show the probability of each team winning, covering the puck line, and the total goals going over or under the betting line.

Lightning vs. Avalanche odds

Here are the best available odds across the moneyline, puck line, and total goals markets monitored by Dimers.

• Lightning moneyline: 48¢ (Novig)
• Avalanche moneyline: 53¢ (Novig)
• Lightning +1.5: 69¢ (Novig)
• Avalanche -1.5: 32¢ (Novig)
• Over 6.5 goals: +102 (DraftKings)
• Under 6.5 goals: -120 (bet365)

Odds are subject to change and may vary by location.

Best value bet: Avalanche moneyline (53¢)

With Colorado favored to beat Tampa Bay, Dimers' top value bet is the Avalanche moneyline at 53¢, available at Novig.

Those odds imply the Avalanche have a 53.0% chance of winning, while our model puts that probability at 53.9%.

That's a 0.9% edge in the Avalanche's favor, the largest across the moneyline, puck line, and total goals markets based on Dimers' probabilities and the best available odds.

Lightning vs. Avalanche goal-scorer predictions

Unlike our NHL pregame model, Dimers' NHL player props model simulates each matchup 10,000 times to estimate goal-scoring probabilities, factoring in expected player usage, lineup changes, the opposing team, and projected team goals.

Nathan MacKinnon of the Avalanche leads Friday's anytime goal-scorer projections at 42.2%, followed by Tampa Bay's Nikita Kucherov (37.3%). MacKinnon also leads the first goal-scorer projections at 9.2%.

Most likely anytime goal-scorers

• Nathan MacKinnon (Avalanche): 42.2%
• Nikita Kucherov (Lightning): 37.3%
• Brandon Hagel (Lightning): 36.9%
• Martin Necas (Avalanche): 34.1%
• Jake Guentzel (Lightning): 32.6%

First goal-scorer predictions

• Nathan MacKinnon (Avalanche): 9.2%
• Brandon Hagel (Lightning): 7.6%
• Nikita Kucherov (Lightning): 7.0%
• Martin Necas (Avalanche): 6.6%
• Jake Guentzel (Lightning): 6.3%

These are model probabilities, not betting recommendations. Compare projections with available odds to assess potential value.

Unlock all Lightning vs. Avalanche predictions with Dimers Pro

Get the complete picture for Friday's matchup with Dimers Pro, including:

• Best bets for the moneyline, puck line, and total goals markets.
• Full anytime and first goal-scorer probabilities for players on both teams.
• High-value player props across anytime goal-scorer, first goal-scorer, shots on goal, points, and assists markets.

See our full range of Lightning vs. Avalanche predictions.

Lightning vs. Avalanche game details

• Matchup: Tampa Bay Lightning vs. Colorado Avalanche
• Date: Friday, October 23, 2026
• Puck drop: 9:00 PM ET/6:00 PM PT
• Venue: Ball Arena

About this prediction

This preview uses predictions from Dimers' proprietary NHL models, presented through a human-written template. Matchup-specific information is populated automatically.

Predictions are estimates, not guarantees, and may change as new information becomes available. Learn more about how Dimers predictions work.

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