Panthers vs. Penguins prediction, odds and best bet for Oct. 22, 2026

The Pittsburgh Penguins are favored to beat the Florida Panthers on Thursday, according to Dimers' NHL pregame model.

Our Panthers vs. Penguins prediction gives Pittsburgh a 51.7% chance of winning at PPG Paints Arena, while the latest odds suggest the best betting value lies in under 6.5 goals.

Panthers vs. Penguins: Key predictions

• Penguins win probability: 51.7%
• Panthers win probability: 48.3%
• Panthers +1.5 puck line: 68.8% cover probability
• Over 6.5 goals: 50.7% probability

Dimers' NHL pregame model estimates how many goals each team is likely to score, accounting for factors such as recent form, shooting and save percentages, home-ice advantage, and rest.

These projections power our NHL predictions, which show the probability of each team winning, covering the puck line, and the total goals going over or under the betting line.

Panthers vs. Penguins odds

Here are the best available odds across the moneyline, puck line, and total goals markets monitored by Dimers.

• Panthers moneyline: 49¢ (Novig)
• Penguins moneyline: 51¢ (Novig)
• Panthers +1.5: 69¢ (Novig)
• Penguins -1.5: 32¢ (Novig)
• Over 6.5 goals: 54¢ (Novig)
• Under 6.5 goals: 46¢ (Novig)

Odds are subject to change and may vary by location.

Best value bet: Under 6.5 (46¢)

The Penguins may be more likely to win, but Dimers' top value bet is under 6.5 total goals at 46¢, available at Novig.

Those odds imply a 46.5% chance of the game finishing under 6.5 goals, while our model puts that probability at 49.3%.

That's a 2.8% edge on the under, the largest across the moneyline, puck line, and total goals markets based on Dimers' probabilities and the best available odds.

Panthers vs. Penguins goal-scorer predictions

Unlike our NHL pregame model, Dimers' NHL player props model simulates each matchup 10,000 times to estimate goal-scoring probabilities, factoring in expected player usage, lineup changes, the opposing team, and projected team goals.

Sam Reinhart of the Panthers leads Thursday's anytime goal-scorer projections at 38.2%, followed by Pittsburgh's Sidney Crosby (37.6%). Reinhart also leads the first goal-scorer projections at 7.7%.

Most likely anytime goal-scorers

• Sam Reinhart (Panthers): 38.2%
• Sidney Crosby (Penguins): 37.6%
• Brady Tkachuk (Panthers): 36.0%
• Rickard Rakell (Penguins): 33.6%
• Carter Verhaeghe (Panthers): 33.6%

First goal-scorer predictions

• Sam Reinhart (Panthers): 7.7%
• Rickard Rakell (Penguins): 6.9%
• Sidney Crosby (Penguins): 6.9%
• Brady Tkachuk (Panthers): 6.6%
• Carter Verhaeghe (Panthers): 6.4%

These are model probabilities, not betting recommendations. Compare projections with available odds to assess potential value.

Unlock all Panthers vs. Penguins predictions with Dimers Pro

Get the complete picture for Thursday's matchup with Dimers Pro, including:

• Best bets for the moneyline, puck line, and total goals markets.
• Full anytime and first goal-scorer probabilities for players on both teams.
• High-value player props across anytime goal-scorer, first goal-scorer, shots on goal, points, and assists markets.

See our full range of Panthers vs. Penguins predictions.

Panthers vs. Penguins game details

• Matchup: Florida Panthers vs. Pittsburgh Penguins
• Date: Thursday, October 22, 2026
• Puck drop: 7:00 PM ET/4:00 PM PT
• Venue: PPG Paints Arena

About this prediction

This preview uses predictions from Dimers' proprietary NHL models, presented through a human-written template. Matchup-specific information is populated automatically.

Predictions are estimates, not guarantees, and may change as new information becomes available. Learn more about how Dimers predictions work.

Dimers encourages responsible gambling.