NFL Week 1 betting guide: Model backed picks, top player props and sharp Pick 'Ems

It's a brand-new NFL season, kicking off with a Super Bowl rematch between the Patriots vs. Seahawks on Wednesday September 9 and Rams vs. 49ers on Thursday Night Football from Melbourne, Australia, before the first NFL Sunday on September 13.

Alongside the rise of prediction markets opening a new way of sports trading, NFL betting will be at an all-time high this season and we are here to make sure you don't miss a beat.

That's where Dimers Pro comes in. Whether you're betting game lines with our best NFL bets, hunting a touchdown edge in our NFL player props, digging into our NFL player projections hub, or tracking Super Bowl futures, the Dimers model does the heavy lifting so you can bet based on data, not guesswork.

Find the narrative, check the data and let the numbers inside our NFL predictions do the rest while you sit back and take in every game this season.

Below, we break down the week's biggest storylines, our model's top spread and moneyline picks, and the players, markets and scenarios most worth your attention.

Three storylines to watch in Week 1 

1. The rookie showcase

Dozens of rookies take the field in Week 1, from Day 1 starters to role players looking to carve out a bigger piece of the pie.

Three first-round picks headline the group Dimers' model expects to make an early impact: Cardinals running back Jeremiyah Love, who signed a rookie deal with $53 million guaranteed after Arizona took him in the first round; Titans wideout Carnell Tate, the No. 4 overall pick out of Ohio State; and Eagles receiver Makai Lemon, the USC product Philadelphia traded up to grab at pick No. 20.

Love projects as the most impactful of the trio out of the gate, with Dimers giving him better than a one-in-three chance to find the end zone in his NFL debut.

Tate and Lemon are further down the pecking order in their respective offenses for Week 1, but both landed in situations where their roles should only grow as the season goes on.

You can find projections for every player in Dimers' NFL player projections hub.

2. Ravens' new era

Baltimore opens the season under a new head coach for the first time since 2008.

John Harbaugh is off to New York to take over the Giants, and the Ravens have promoted Jesse Minter, formerly the defensive coordinator for the Chargers, to replace him.

The transition hasn't dented outside expectations. Baltimore opens as Dimers' fourth-most likely winner in our Super Bowl predictions at 5.5%, the model's top pick to win the AFC Championship at 13.2%, and the favorite in the AFC North at 44.8% (the Bengals are next at 33.8%).

In Week 1, the Ravens are a 61.2% favorite over the Colts, though Dimers only gives them a 45.1% probability to cover the spread.

Lamar Jackson's Week 1 projections as seen in the Dimers App.

Via Dimers' NFL player projections, QB Lamar Jackson projects as the third-most productive quarterback in Week 1, with 219.5 passing yards, 42.4 rushing yards and a 25.0% anytime touchdown probability to open Minter's tenure.

3. Chiefs' redemption season begins

Kansas City is looking to erase the memory of last season's 6-11 finish, its first losing record since 2012, as Patrick Mahomes returns from the ruptured ACL and LCL that ended his 2025 season in December.

Dimers gives the Chiefs a 5.3% probability to win the Super Bowl and puts them in a tight three-way race for the AFC West at 38.9%, just ahead of Denver (30.0%) and the Chargers (26.5%).

Kansas City closes out Week 1 on Monday Night Football against the Broncos, projected as a 58.6% favorite. New Chiefs running back Kenneth Walker III, the reigning Super Bowl LX MVP signed away from Seattle in free agency, projects for a 48.4% touchdown probability in his Kansas City debut.

Top picks against the spread in Week 1

These are the teams with the highest probability to cover the spread in their respective game this week.

They may not hold value, which is why you'll want to cross-reference with our NFL best bets - any spread picks with a betting edge will be identified there.

However, if you're looking to build NFL parlays with spreads, or make your choices in an NFL Pick 'ems league, these five teams are a good place to start.

• Dolphins (+3.5) @ Raiders (60%)
• Bears (-2.5) @ Panthers (55%)
• Colts (+3.5) vs. Ravens (55%)
• Cowboys (-2.5) @ Giants (55%)
• Bengals (-2.5) vs. Buccaneers (53%)

Three of these teams not only land in our Top 5 probabilities, but also get an edge to cover the spread at their best available odds - see every NFL bet with a Dimers edge here.

Who will win in NFL Week 1?

Here you'll find the five most likely outright winners this week. No spreads, no covering, and little betting value, just the five highest probabilities identified in our NFL predictions.

These are good teams to look at for weekly Survivor picks throughout the season, provided you haven't used one of them previously.

• Jaguars 78% vs. Browns
• Chargers 77% vs. Cardinals 
• Lions 72% vs. Saints
• Bengals 66% vs. Buccaneers
• Eagles 66% vs. Commanders

Editor's Survivor pick: Keep things simple in Week 1 and ride with our top overall probability of the Jaguars, who draw a tough schedule this year, and save the Chargers for their games vs. the Raiders or Jets.

Dimers' Sweet Spots to look for in Week 1

The "Sweet Spot" is a Dimers Pro feature that identifies the specific betting markets and edge ranges where our model is returning a positive profit over the course of the season.

These signals are the first to look for when researching a weekly NFL slate, as it shows where our model has proven to be most accurate .

Due to the launch of our brand-new NFL model, only props have Sweet Spots that have carried over from last season. Once we have enough bets in the bank, you'll find game lines here as well.

Our NFL "Sweet Spots" from the Dimers App.

Players to watch in Week 1

1. DJ Moore (Bills)

The Bills traded for WR DJ Moore this offseason to give Josh Allen another dependable target, and Buffalo's new receiver gets the best quarterback he's ever played with

Dimers gives Buffalo an edge to both win and cover -1.5 against the Texans in Buffalo's Week 1 opener, while Allen also carries an edge for over 1.5 passing touchdowns, a projection that lines up well with a good game for Moore.

Dimers has Moore projected for 51 receiving yards and a 27.5% touchdown probability in his Bills debut.

2. Malik Nabers (Giants)

WR Malik Nabers ruptured his ACL and tore his meniscus in Week 4 last season and missed the rest of the year, but he looks on track to go for the Giants' Week 1 opener, hosting the Cowboys on Sunday Night Football.

His status hasn't been formally confirmed as of this writing, but recent reports have him trending toward availability.

Dimers projects him for 65.8 receiving yards, the 15th-highest total among all wide receivers in Week 1, and a 34.8% touchdown probability against a Dallas defense that was one of the league's worst last season, though they spent the offseason looking to improve in that regard.

3. Tua Tagovailoa (Falcons)

Tua Tagovailoa gets a fresh start in Atlanta after his Miami tenure ended following years marked by recurring concussions and declining play.

He now throws to a stacked group of Drake London, Kyle Pitts and Bijan Robinson out of the backfield.

Dimers projects Tua for 214 passing yards, with London projected for 69 receiving yards and a 32.7% touchdown probability.

There's no value on the Falcons to win or cover in Week 1, but Tua gets a slight edge in multiple passing-game props.

Bet on NFL in 2026 with Dimers Pro

Every single player, team and betting insight in this article comes straight from Dimers Pro, your go-to resource for the NFL season, already off to a successful start in college football.

You can find picks, props and predictions for every single NFL game this season via Dimers' NFL predictions.

Dimers Pro subscribers can also access recommended bets, edge ratings, Signals, and the best available prices throughout the season with a Dimers Pro football season pass, giving complete access to both NFL and college football, as well as all in-season sports during that time.