Patriots vs. Dolphins prediction: Why New England is favored to win in NFL Week 8 [2026]

Since our Patriots-Dolphins predictions earlier in the week, we have re-simulated the outcome of Sunday's NFL matchup between the Patriots and Dolphins, forming part of our NFL predictions coverage.

Our leading predictive model gives the Patriots a 72.1% chance of beating the Dolphins in Week 8 of the NFL season. Our predicted final score has the Patriots winning 24-18.

Key factors favoring the Patriots:

• Dolphins offense
• Patriots offense
• Patriots team rating

According to our model, the oddsmakers have got it right, and the Patriots and Dolphins each have a 50% chance of covering the spread, while the over/under total of 42.5 points has a 52.1% chance of going over.

The key factors that make the over more likely are:

• Patriots recent performance
• Dolphins defense

To see win probabilities for every matchup this week, check out our expert NFL Week 8 straight up picks.

Latest betting odds

We have researched the best NFL odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

• Spread: Patriots -6.5 (-111) / Dolphins +6.5 (+113)
• Moneyline: Patriots -317, Dolphins +308
• Total: Over/Under 42.5 (+100/-104)

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Model picks and best bet

After matching our predictions against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets in this matchup. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

• Spread: Dolphins +6.5 @ 47¢ via Novig
• Moneyline: Dolphins @ 25¢ via Novig
• Total: Over 42.5 @ 50¢ via Novig

According to our best NFL bets, the top play to make on this game is Dolphins to win.

These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the current available odds.

Patriots vs. Dolphins TD scorers

Who will score a touchdown in Patriots vs. Dolphins?

According to our list of touchdown scorer predictions for today, Rhamondre Stevenson is most likely to score an anytime TD in Patriots vs. Dolphins.

Our projections give Stevenson a 50.8% chance of scoring a TD at Hard Rock Stadium, while the running back is a 12.9% chance of scoring the first touchdown the game.

Anytime touchdown scorer predictions

New England Patriots

• Rhamondre Stevenson (RB): 50.8% probability
• Hunter Henry (TE): 32.3%
• DeMario Douglas (WR): 25.1%
• Corey Kiner (RB): 23.4%
• Drake Maye (QB): 22.1%

Miami Dolphins

• Ollie Gordon (RB): 45.3% prob.
• Malik Willis (QB): 26.4%
• Malik Washington (WR): 17.7%
• Jaylen Wright (RB): 15.2%
• Caleb Douglas (WR): 15.0%

First touchdown scorer predictions

New England Patriots

• Rhamondre Stevenson (RB): 12.9% prob.
• Hunter Henry (TE): 7.1%
• DeMario Douglas (WR): 5.2%
• Corey Kiner (RB): 4.8%
• Drake Maye (QB): 4.5%

Miami Dolphins

• Ollie Gordon (RB): 12.5% prob.
• Malik Willis (QB): 6.3%
• Malik Washington (WR): 4.0%
• Jaylen Wright (RB): 3.4%
• Caleb Douglas (WR): 3.3%

Top player props

Discover our predictions for the players likely to lead in passing, rushing and receiving yards for both the Patriots and Dolphins. Head to our NFL player projections page now to access a full list of player prop projections for every offensive player in this matchup and all other Week 8 games.

Quarterbacks

Of the starting quarterbacks, the Patriots' Drake Maye is projected for 239 passing yards. The Dolphins' Malik Willis is expected to throw for 191 yards.

Patriots rushing

• Rhamondre Stevenson: 64 yds
• Corey Kiner: 36 yds
• Drake Maye: 28 yds

Dolphins rushing

• Ollie Gordon: 61 yds
• Malik Willis: 36 yds
• Jaylen Wright: 18 yds

Patriots receiving

• Hunter Henry: 47 yds
• DeMario Douglas: 46 yds
• Efton Chism: 35 yds
• Kyle Williams: 31 yds
• Eli Raridon: 30 yds

Dolphins receiving

• Malik Washington: 47 yds
• Caleb Douglas: 43 yds
• Greg Dulcich: 33 yds
• Chris Bell: 25 yds
• Kevin Coleman: 12 yds

Game info & kickoff details

The NFL Week 8 game between the Dolphins and Patriots at Hard Rock Stadium is scheduled to start at 4:25 PM ET.

• Who: New England Patriots vs. Miami Dolphins
• Date: Sunday, November 1, 2026
• Time: 4:25 PM ET/1:25 PM PT
• Venue: Hard Rock Stadium

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Conclusion

We predict the Patriots, with a 72.1% win probability, will likely beat the Dolphins in Week 8 of the NFL season.

Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.

This article's predictions and probabilities are generated by Dimers' proprietary NFL prediction model. Our editorial team reviews the resulting content for accuracy and presentation before publication.