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NFL betting model insights report: Analyzing the Week 12 data
Updated: | First published:
Written by Nick Slade, Chief Content Officer
Reviewed by Jason Bevilacqua
This NFL Week 12 report pulled data from our backend resulting dashboard to highlight where our NFL betting model excels with a positive ROI.
Another week of NFL football is here, and we’re looking ahead to where the model is performing best to help guide our Week 12 NFL bets.
Last week offered fewer attack spots on the NFL Best Bets page, with no Totals plays hitting the 5%+ edge threshold we highlighted. And while our Best Bet of the week didn’t land (Chargers ML vs. the Jags), we did see some consistent patterns among Closing Line Moneyline bets with a 2% edge or greater.
Of the five bets that met that trigger for Sunday's games, as well as MNF, returns were encouraging:
✅ Cowboys ML -125
✅ Eagles ML -108
✅ Panthers ML +190
❌ Cardinals ML
❌ Chargers ML
It’s a good reminder of why you should always be scanning the Dimers site before kick.
Now, let’s get into this week’s report.
NFL 2025 season analysis
Each week, this report surfaces the most meaningful signals from our internal results dashboard — showing where the Dimers NFL Model has historically delivered a positive ROI — and outlining how you can apply those same profitable patterns when you visit the NFL Best Bets page this week.
| SPOT | SAMPLE SIZE | ROI |
| Moneyline favorite bets (min. 2% edge) | 45+ | POSITIVE ✅ |
| Moneyline bets (2-10% edge) | 80+ | POSITIVE ✅ |
| Points Total bets (2-10% edge) | 95+ | POSITIVE ✅ |
INSIGHT: NHL model insights are reporting positive ROI
What does all of that mean?
Moneyline bets remain one of the model’s strongest performers within the 2–10% edge range, but ML favorites continue to stand out as a true sweet spot, delivering significant positive returns for Dimers Pro users this season.
As of publication, no plays currently fall within this range on the Best Bets page, but—as always—it’s something to watch as the week progresses and we get closer to Sunday’s slate.
Last week we highlighted Totals Bets with an edge above 5%, and recent weeks have shown steady positive returns even for Totals in the 2–10% range, indicating the model holds up well even without a massive edge.
Things to watch in NFL Week 12:
For Week 12, there are currently four Totals bets in the above-mentioned strike zone on the NFL Best Bets page - with one matchup in particular showing a 55.6% probability and a sizeable 3.6% edge!
• Browns/Raiders
• Vikings/Packers
• Giants/Lions
• Jets/Ravens
RELATED: NBA betting model insights report
NFL Week 12 best bet:
With a 55.6% probability, our NFL model has also unearthed a 3.6% edge at the best current odds available across all of the online betting sites. As such, this play fits squarely within the profitable 2–10% edge range for Totals bets outlined above.
Jets vs. Ravens Under 44.5 (-108)
Our NFL Best Bet for Week 12 comes in the early Sunday window, with the model liking Under 44.5 in Jets vs. Ravens. As mentioned, with a 55.6% probability and a 3.6% edge at -108 odds, this play checks all the boxes within our profitable 2–10% edge range for Totals bets ✅
Responsible gambling
Remember to please gamble responsibly. If you sense that you're taking your luck too far, know when to call it quits and don't be afraid to seek assistance. Keep in mind that gambling is all about having a fantastic experience! If you or someone you know is grappling with gambling issues, reach out to 1-800-GAMBLER for crisis counseling and support ✅
To give you the most accurate and helpful information, this article has been reviewed and edited by Jason Bevilacqua through our fact-checking process.
Nick Slade, with nearly two decades of experience, is the Chief Content Officer at Cipher Sports Technology Group, overseeing content for Dimers. He specializes in soccer, NBA, and NHL betting, leveraging predictive analytics and machine learning to provide accurate betting insights.
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