Patriots vs. Bears prediction: Why Chicago is favored to win TNF Week 7 [2026]

Since our Patriots-Bears predictions earlier in the week, we have re-simulated the result of Thursday's NFL game between the Patriots and Bears, forming part of our NFL predictions coverage.

Our independent predictive model currently gives the Bears a 61.9% chance of beating the Patriots in Week 7 of the NFL season. Our predicted final score has the Bears winning 26-23.

Key factors favoring the Bears:

• Bears offense
• Patriots QB situation
• Bears team rating

According to our model, the Bears (-2.5) have a 59.3% chance of covering the spread, while the 50.5-point over/under has a 51.4% chance of staying under.

Here's what's driving the under's higher probability::

• Playing conditions
• Patriots pace

To see win probabilities for every matchup this week, check out our expert NFL Week 7 straight up picks.

Latest betting odds

We have sourced the best NFL odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

• Spread: Patriots +2.5 (+117) / Bears -2.5 (-120)
• Moneyline: Patriots +147, Bears -148
• Total: Over/Under 50.5 (-104/+102)

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Model picks and best bet

After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets in this matchup. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

• Spread: Bears -2.5 @ 55¢ via Novig
• Moneyline: Bears @ -148 via DraftKings
• Total: Under 50.5 @ 50¢ via Novig

According to our NFL best bets, the top play to make on this game is Bears -2.5 at the spread.

These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the current available odds.

Patriots vs. Bears TD scorers

Who will score a touchdown in Patriots vs. Bears?

According to our list of touchdown scorer predictions for TNF, D'Andre Swift is most likely to score an anytime TD in Patriots vs. Bears.

Our projections give Swift a 58.0% chance of getting in for six at Soldier Field, while the running back is a 14.4% chance of scoring the first touchdown the game.

Anytime touchdown scorer predictions

New England Patriots

• Rhamondre Stevenson (RB): 42.1% probability
• A.J. Brown (WR): 34.5%
• Hunter Henry (TE): 26.4%
• TreVeyon Henderson (RB): 22.0%
• Drake Maye (QB): 20.6%

Chicago Bears

• D'Andre Swift (RB): 58.0% prob.
• Roschon Johnson (RB): 33.0%
• Colston Loveland (TE): 28.9%
• Luther Burden (WR): 28.1%
• Rome Odunze (WR): 26.6%

First touchdown scorer predictions

New England Patriots

• Rhamondre Stevenson (RB): 8.7% prob.
• A.J. Brown (WR): 6.7%
• Hunter Henry (TE): 4.9%
• TreVeyon Henderson (RB): 3.9%
• Drake Maye (QB): 3.7%

Chicago Bears

• D'Andre Swift (RB): 14.4% prob.
• Roschon Johnson (RB): 6.6%
• Colston Loveland (TE): 5.7%
• Luther Burden (WR): 5.5%
• Rome Odunze (WR): 5.1%

Top player props

Discover our predictions for the players likely to lead in passing, rushing and receiving yards for both the Patriots and Bears. Head to our NFL player projections page now to access a full list of player prop projections for every offensive player in this matchup and all other Week 7 games.

Quarterbacks

Of the starting quarterbacks, the Patriots' Drake Maye is projected for 250 passing yards, while the Bears' Caleb Williams is expected to throw for 242 yards.

Patriots rushing

• Rhamondre Stevenson: 46 yds
• Drake Maye: 31 yds
• TreVeyon Henderson: 27 yds

Bears rushing

• D'Andre Swift: 65 yds
• Roschon Johnson: 30 yds
• Caleb Williams: 24 yds

Patriots receiving

• A.J. Brown: 73 yds
• DeMario Douglas: 45 yds
• Hunter Henry: 37 yds
• Kyle Williams: 25 yds
• Efton Chism: 24 yds

Bears receiving

• Luther Burden: 61 yds
• Rome Odunze: 49 yds
• Colston Loveland: 45 yds
• Kalif Raymond: 31 yds
• D'Andre Swift: 22 yds

Game info & kickoff details

The NFL Week 7 matchup between the Bears and Patriots at Soldier Field is scheduled to commence at 8:15 PM ET.

• Who: New England Patriots vs. Chicago Bears
• Date: Thursday, October 22, 2026
• Time: 8:15 PM ET/5:15 PM PT
• Venue: Soldier Field

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Conclusion

We predict the Bears, with a 61.9% win probability, will likely beat the Patriots in Week 7 of the NFL season.

Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.

This article's predictions and probabilities are generated by Dimers' proprietary NFL prediction model. Our editorial team reviews the resulting content for accuracy and presentation before publication.