Commanders vs. 49ers prediction favors San Francisco to win MNF Week 6 [2026]

Since our Commanders-49ers predictions earlier in the week, we have re-simulated the outcome of Monday's NFL game between the Commanders and 49ers, forming part of our NFL predictions coverage.

Our leading predictive model currently gives the 49ers a 75.9% chance of beating the Commanders in Week 6 of the NFL season. Our predicted final score has the 49ers winning 29-21.

Key factors favoring the 49ers:

• 49ers offense
• 49ers team rating
• 49ers QB situation

According to our model, the 49ers (-7.5) have a 53.2% chance of covering the spread, while the 51.5-point over/under has a 52.4% chance of staying under.

The key factors that make the under more likely are:

• Playing conditions
• Commanders recent performance

To see win probabilities for every matchup this week, check out our expert NFL Week 6 straight up picks.

Latest betting odds

We have researched the best NFL odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

• Spread: Commanders +7.5 (-104) / 49ers -7.5 (+102)
• Moneyline: Commanders +355, 49ers -365
• Total: Over/Under 51.5 (-104/+100)

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Model picks and best bet

After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets in this matchup. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

• Spread: 49ers -7.5 @ 50¢ via Novig
• Moneyline: Commanders @ 22¢ via Novig
• Total: Under 51.5 @ 50¢ via Novig

According to our NFL best bets, the top play to make on this game is 49ers -7.5 at the spread.

These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the current available odds.

Commanders vs. 49ers TD scorers

Who will score a touchdown in Commanders vs. 49ers?

According to our list of touchdown scorer predictions for MNF, Christian McCaffrey is most likely to score an anytime touchdown in Commanders vs. 49ers.

Our projections give McCaffrey a 65.4% chance of scoring a TD at Levi's Stadium, while the running back is a 16.3% chance of scoring the first touchdown the game.

Anytime touchdown scorer predictions

Washington Commanders

• Rachaad White (RB): 38.7% probability
• Stefon Diggs (WR): 29.7%
• Terry McLaurin (WR): 28.7%
• Jayden Daniels (QB): 27.7%
• Austin Ekeler (RB): 25.0%

San Francisco 49ers

• Christian McCaffrey (RB): 65.4% prob.
• Mike Evans (WR): 48.5%
• George Kittle (TE): 43.6%
• Brandin Cooks (WR): 22.6%
• Brock Purdy (QB): 19.8%

First touchdown scorer predictions

Washington Commanders

• Rachaad White (RB): 7.2% prob.
• Stefon Diggs (WR): 5.2%
• Terry McLaurin (WR): 5.0%
• Jayden Daniels (QB): 4.8%
• Austin Ekeler (RB): 4.3%

San Francisco 49ers

• Christian McCaffrey (RB): 16.3% prob.
• Mike Evans (WR): 10.1%
• George Kittle (TE): 8.8%
• Brandin Cooks (WR): 3.9%
• Brock Purdy (QB): 3.4%

Top player props

Discover our predictions for the players likely to lead in passing, rushing and receiving yards for both the Commanders and 49ers. Head to our NFL player projections page now to access a full list of player prop projections for every offensive player in this matchup and all other Week 6 games.

Quarterbacks

Of the starting quarterbacks, the Commanders' Jayden Daniels is projected for 212 passing yards, while the 49ers' Brock Purdy is expected to throw for 249 yards.

Commanders rushing

• Rachaad White: 50 yds
• Jayden Daniels: 43 yds
• Austin Ekeler: 23 yds

49ers rushing

• Christian McCaffrey: 66 yds
• Kaelon Black: 30 yds
• Brock Purdy: 20 yds

Commanders receiving

• Terry McLaurin: 52 yds
• Stefon Diggs: 46 yds
• Chig Okonkwo: 30 yds
• Antonio Williams: 29 yds
• Rachaad White: 16 yds

49ers receiving

• Mike Evans: 71 yds
• George Kittle: 64 yds
• Christian McCaffrey: 40 yds
• Brandin Cooks: 27 yds
• Jacob Cowing: 25 yds

Game info & kickoff details

The NFL Week 6 action between the 49ers and Commanders at Levi's Stadium is scheduled to start at 8:15 PM ET.

• Who: Washington Commanders vs. San Francisco 49ers
• Date: Monday, October 19, 2026
• Time: 8:15 PM ET/5:15 PM PT
• Venue: Levi's Stadium

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Conclusion

We predict the 49ers, with a 75.9% win probability, will likely beat the Commanders in Week 6 of the NFL season.

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This article's predictions and probabilities are generated by Dimers' proprietary NFL prediction model. Our editorial team reviews the resulting content for accuracy and presentation before publication.