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Timberwolves vs. Nuggets prediction: Denver favored to win Game 1 [2026 NBA Playoffs]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Dave Garofolo, Content Producer
Get Minnesota Timberwolves vs Denver Nuggets predictions for NBA Playoffs Saturday.
The Denver Nuggets and Minnesota Timberwolves will meet in Game 1 of their NBA Playoffs series at Ball Arena on Saturday, with tipoff at 3:30 PM ET.
Based on the latest simulations and today’s injury news, Dimers' proven NBA model predicts the Nuggets as the most likely winner of the Timberwolves vs. Nuggets Game 1 matchup.
This prediction follows the latest NBA Injury Report, which suggests the Nuggets lineup will feature players like Nikola Jokic, Jamal Murray and Aaron Gordon, while the Timberwolves will rely on Anthony Edwards, Julius Randle and Jaden McDaniels.
This article offers a closer look at Saturday's matchup, including an expanded look at the predicted score, best bets and player prop picks.
Wolves vs. Nuggets prediction: Who will win Game 1?
Using innovative machine learning and data, we have simulated the result of Saturday's NBA Playoffs game between the Timberwolves and Nuggets, forming part of our NBA predictions coverage.
Our independent predictive model currently gives the Nuggets a 72% chance of beating the Timberwolves in Game 1 of the series. Our predicted final score has the Nuggets winning 119-112.
According to our model, the bookmakers have got it right, and the Timberwolves and Nuggets each have a 50% chance of covering the spread, while the over/under total of 231 points has a 51% chance of going over.
Timberwolves vs. Nuggets Game 1 odds
We have researched the best NBA odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | Timberwolves | Nuggets |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | +6.5 (-105) | -6.5 (-110) |
| Moneyline | +220 | -258 |
| Total | o231 (-110) | u231 (-110) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Timberwolves vs. Nuggets picks and best bet for Game 1
After matching our probabilities against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Timberwolves +6.5 | -105 |
| Moneyline | Nuggets | -258 |
| Total | Over 231 | -110 |
According to our NBA best bets, the top play to make on this game is Nuggets to win.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.
Timberwolves vs. Nuggets Game 1 player props
Betting on Minnesota vs. Denver NBA player props? We have crunched the numbers to project how each team's leading players will perform at Ball Arena.
Anthony Edwards is expected to lead the Timberwolves with 27 points, 5 rebounds and 4 assists, while Nikola Jokic is projected to have 29 points, 13 rebounds and 12 assists for the Nuggets.
Check out our NBA player projections for a full range of projected box scores, including points, assists, rebounds and today's NBA first basket picks.
Timberwolves prediction
Our model's projected player stats for the Timberwolves are:
| Player | PTS | REB | AST | 3PM | DFS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anthony Edwards | 27 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 47 |
| Julius Randle | 20 | 6 | 5 | 1 | 40 |
| Jaden McDaniels | 15 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 31 |
| Naz Reid | 13 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 28 |
| Ayo Dosunmu | 12 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 26 |
Nuggets prediction
Projected points, rebounds, assists and three-pointers made for the Nuggets:
| Player | PTS | REB | AST | 3PM | DFS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nikola Jokic | 29 | 13 | 12 | 2 | 71 |
| Jamal Murray | 27 | 5 | 7 | 3 | 49 |
| Aaron Gordon | 16 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 31 |
| Cameron Johnson | 12 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 25 |
| Tim Hardaway | 11 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 20 |
Wolves vs. Nuggets Game 1 updates and essential details
Saturday's Game 1 between the Nuggets and Timberwolves in the NBA Playoffs is scheduled to begin at 3:30 PM ET.
- Who: Minnesota Timberwolves vs. Denver Nuggets
- Date: Saturday, April 18, 2026
- Time: 3:30 PM ET/12:30PM PT
- Venue: Ball Arena
- NBA Playoffs bracket: Updated NBA Playoffs bracket and schedule
The NBA Playoffs is an annual elimination tournament held to determine the league's champion.
A total of 16 teams, including the Timberwolves and Nuggets, made the 2026 NBA Playoffs, which spans four rounds: the First Round, Conference Semifinals, Conference Finals, and NBA Finals.
Each round is contested as a best-of-seven series, with the first team to four wins advancing to the next round until a champion is crowned.
Conclusion
We predict the Nuggets, with a 72% win probability, will likely beat the Timberwolves in Saturday's NBA playoffs matchup.
Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.
Dave Garofolo uses sophisticated AI-driven analytics to make predictions and evaluate player performances in the NBA, MLB, NFL, NHL, NCAAM, and PGA TOUR tournaments, crafting insightful game and prop previews.
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