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NBA first basket picks and predictions for Playoffs today, Saturday, April 18, 2026
Updated: | First published:
Written by Nick Slade, Chief Content Officer
Get first basket predictions today driven by expert analysis of NBA slate on 4/18.
Our NBA first basket picks and predictions for today—Saturday, April 18, 2026—are live with the Knicks' Jalen Brunson projected as the most likely player to score first.
These projections draw on detailed first basket stats, including player efficiency, shot frequency, and expected starting lineups, forming part of our daily NBA player projections.
Brunson, Nikola Jokic and Karl-Anthony Towns lead Saturday’s most likely first basket scorers, while we also showcase tonight's top first basket value picks by comparing real-time odds to model-generated probabilities.
NBA Playoffs first basket predictions tonight (April 18, 2026)
| Player | Team | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Jalen Brunson | Knicks | 13.7% |
| Nikola Jokic | Nuggets | 13.0% |
| Karl-Anthony Towns | Knicks | 13.0% |
| LeBron James | Lakers | 12.9% |
| Anthony Edwards | Timberwolves | 12.7% |
| Deandre Ayton | Lakers | 12.5% |
| Donovan Mitchell | Cavaliers | 12.4% |
| Jarrett Allen | Cavaliers | 12.4% |
| Jamal Murray | Nuggets | 12.0% |
| CJ McCollum | Hawks | 12.0% |
| Evan Mobley | Cavaliers | 11.9% |
| Nickeil Alexander-Walker | Hawks | 11.6% |
| Kevin Durant | Rockets | 11.5% |
| Alperen Sengun | Rockets | 11.5% |
| Jakob Poeltl | Raptors | 11.4% |
NBA first basket picks today (April 18, 2026)
| Player | Team | Edge | Odds | Probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| RJ Barrett | Raptors | 1.8% | +1000 | 10.9% |
| Jakob Poeltl | Raptors | 1.4% | +900 | 11.4% |
| Christian Braun | Nuggets | 1.1% | +1300 | 8.3% |
| Scottie Barnes | Raptors | 0.8% | +1000 | 9.9% |
| Jalen Johnson | Hawks | 0.5% | +900 | 10.5% |
| Reed Sheppard | Rockets | 0.4% | +1000 | 9.5% |
| Jaden McDaniels | Timberwolves | 0.3% | +850 | 10.8% |
| CJ McCollum | Hawks | 0.2% | +750 | 12.0% |
| Amen Thompson | Rockets | 0.2% | +1000 | 9.3% |
Edges represent the difference between model probability and implied odds.
For more insights on prop markets and value plays across the league, explore our full list of NBA prop bets for 4/18.
Conclusion: Betting on today's NBA first basket
For the Playoffs action onSaturday, April 18, 2026, Jalen Brunson, Nikola Jokic and Karl-Anthony Towns lead our first basket projections, while RJ Barrett shapes as the strongest value play at +1000. All picks and predictions are derived from Dimers’ NBA first basket model.
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Nick Slade, with nearly two decades of experience, is the Chief Content Officer at Cipher Sports Technology Group, overseeing content for Dimers. He specializes in soccer, NBA, and NHL betting, leveraging predictive analytics and machine learning to provide accurate betting insights.
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