Heat vs. Thunder prediction: Oklahoma City favored to win Sunday's NBA matchup [1/11/2026]

The Oklahoma City Thunder and Miami Heat are scheduled to meet in NBA action at Paycom Center on Sunday, starting at 7:00 PM ET.

Based on updated simulation results and today’s injury reports, Dimers' proven NBA model predicts the Thunder as the most likely winner of the Heat vs. Thunder game.

This prediction follows the latest NBA Injury Report, which suggests the Thunder lineup will feature stars like Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Jalen Williams and Chet Holmgren, while the Heat will be led by Tyler Herro, Norman Powell and Bam Adebayo.

This article offers a closer look at Sunday's matchup, including an expanded look at the predicted score, best bets and player prop picks.

Heat vs. Thunder prediction: Who will win and cover?

Using trusted machine learning and data analysis, we have simulated the result of Sunday's NBA game between the Heat and Thunder 10,000 times as part of our NBA predictions coverage.

Our independent predictive model currently gives the Thunder an 86% chance of beating the Heat. Our predicted final score has the Thunder winning 121-109.

According to our model, the Heat (+14.5) have a 57% chance of covering the spread, while the 233.5-point over/under has a 51% chance of staying under.

Heat vs. Thunder odds

We have sourced the best NBA odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

Bet Type	Heat	Thunder
Spread	+14.5 (-102)	-14.5 (-118)
Moneyline	+625	-800
Total	o233.5 (-114)	u233.5 (-106)

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Heat vs. Thunder picks and best bet

After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

Bet Type	Pick	Bet Now
Spread	Heat +14.5	-102
Moneyline	Heat	+625
Total	Under 233.5	-106

According to our best NBA bets for Sunday, the top play to make on this game is Heat +14.5 at the spread.

Heat vs. Thunder player props

Betting on Miami vs. Oklahoma City NBA prop bets? We have crunched the numbers to project how each team's leading players will perform at Paycom Center.

Tyler Herro is expected to lead the Heat with 21 points, 5 rebounds and 4 assists, while Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is projected to have 31 points, 5 rebounds and 7 assists for the Thunder.

Check out our NBA player projections for a full range of projected box scores, including points, assists, rebounds and today's NBA first basket picks.

Heat prediction

Our model's projected player stats for the Heat are:

Player	PTS	REB	AST	3PM	DFS
Tyler Herro	21	5	4	2	38
Norman Powell	20	4	3	3	33
Bam Adebayo	14	8	3	2	34
Andrew Wiggins	14	4	2	2	29
Jaime Jaquez	14	5	3	1	29

Thunder prediction

Projected points, rebounds, assists and three-pointers made for the Thunder:

Player	PTS	REB	AST	3PM	DFS
S. Gilgeous-Alexander	31	5	7	2	54
Jalen Williams	19	6	6	1	40
Chet Holmgren	18	9	1	1	38
Ajay Mitchell	12	4	4	1	27
Aaron Wiggins	10	4	2	2	21

Heat vs. Thunder game-day updates and essential details

Sunday's game between the Thunder and Heat at Paycom Center is scheduled to begin at 7:00 PM ET.

• Who: Miami Heat vs. Oklahoma City Thunder
• Date: Sunday, January 11, 2026
• Time: 7:00 PM ET/4:00PM PT
• Venue: Paycom Center

Conclusion

We predict the Thunder, with an 86% win probability, will likely beat the Heat on Sunday, with Shai Gilgeous-Alexander projected for a game-high 54 fantasy points.

AI and automation have enhanced this article to quickly deliver accurate Heat vs. Thunder insights, with human oversight ensuring high editorial quality. Our predictions are sourced from up-to-date data to help you make informed decisions. For additional resources and advice on responsible gambling, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.

Note: Clicking links to our partners may earn us a referral fee. Learn about how we review products and services.