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Heat vs. Thunder prediction: Oklahoma City favored to win Sunday's NBA matchup [1/11/2026]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Dave Garofolo, Content Producer
Get Miami Heat vs Oklahoma City Thunder predictions for NBA Sunday.
The Oklahoma City Thunder will take on the Miami Heat in NBA action at Paycom Center on Sunday, beginning at 7:00 PM ET.
Based on the latest simulations and today’s injury reports, Dimers' advanced NBA model predicts the Thunder as the most likely winner of the Heat vs. Thunder game.
This prediction follows the latest NBA Injury Report, which suggests the Thunder lineup will feature stars like Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Jalen Williams and Chet Holmgren, while the Heat will be led by Norman Powell, Tyler Herro and Bam Adebayo.
This article offers a closer look at Sunday's matchup, including an expanded look at the predicted score, best bets and player prop picks.
Heat vs. Thunder prediction: Who will win and cover?
Using trusted machine learning and data, we have simulated the outcome of Sunday's NBA matchup between the Heat and Thunder 10,000 times as part of our NBA predictions coverage.
Our independent predictive model currently gives the Thunder an 85% chance of beating the Heat. Our predicted final score has the Thunder winning 122-109.
According to our model, the Heat (+14.5) have a 57% chance of covering the spread, while the over/under total of 235.5 points has a 55% chance of staying under.
Heat vs. Thunder odds
We have sourced the best NBA odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | Heat | Thunder |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | +14.5 (-110) | -14.5 (-106) |
| Moneyline | +610 | -850 |
| Total | o235.5 (-110) | u235.5 (-110) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Heat vs. Thunder picks and best bet
After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Heat +14.5 | -110 |
| Moneyline | Heat | +610 |
| Total | Under 235.5 | -110 |
According to our best NBA bets for Sunday, the top play to make on this game is Heat +14.5 at the spread.
Heat vs. Thunder player props
Looking for Miami vs. Oklahoma City NBA prop bets? We have crunched the numbers to project how each team's leading players will perform at Paycom Center.
Norman Powell is expected to lead the Heat with 21 points, 4 rebounds and 2 assists, while Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is projected to have 30 points, 5 rebounds and 7 assists for the Thunder.
Check out our NBA player projections for a full range of projected box scores, including points, assists, rebounds and today's NBA first basket picks.
Heat prediction
Our model's projected player stats for the Heat are:
| Player | PTS | REB | AST | 3PM | DFS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Norman Powell | 21 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 34 |
| Tyler Herro | 20 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 38 |
| Bam Adebayo | 14 | 8 | 3 | 2 | 33 |
| Jaime Jaquez | 14 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 29 |
| Andrew Wiggins | 14 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 28 |
Thunder prediction
Projected points, rebounds, assists and three-pointers made for the Thunder:
| Player | PTS | REB | AST | 3PM | DFS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S. Gilgeous-Alexander | 30 | 5 | 7 | 2 | 53 |
| Jalen Williams | 19 | 6 | 6 | 1 | 40 |
| Chet Holmgren | 18 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 38 |
| Ajay Mitchell | 12 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 27 |
| Aaron Wiggins | 10 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 21 |
Heat vs. Thunder game-day updates and essential details
Sunday's action between the Thunder and Heat at Paycom Center is scheduled to commence at 7:00 PM ET.
- Who: Miami Heat vs. Oklahoma City Thunder
- Date: Sunday, January 11, 2026
- Time: 7:00 PM ET/4:00PM PT
- Venue: Paycom Center
Conclusion
We predict the Thunder, with an 85% win probability, will likely beat the Heat on Sunday, with Shai Gilgeous-Alexander projected for a game-high 53 fantasy points.
AI and automation have enhanced this article to quickly deliver accurate Heat vs. Thunder insights, with human oversight ensuring high editorial quality. Our predictions are based on up-to-date data to help you make informed decisions. For additional resources and advice on responsible gambling, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.
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Dave Garofolo uses sophisticated AI-driven analytics to make predictions and evaluate player performances in the NBA, MLB, NFL, NHL, NCAAM, and PGA TOUR tournaments, crafting insightful game and prop previews.
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