NBA picks today: Sunday's best bets include Heat vs. Thunder play [1/11/2026]

Heat +13.5 (-102)

• Edge: 6.1%
• Probability: 56.6%
• Matchup: Heat vs. Thunder (7:00PM ET, Sunday)

Our model has identified value on Heat +13.5 at -102 odds. A 56.6% probability produces an edge of 6.1%, making this the strongest play for today's NBA slate.

Wizards +14.5 (-108)

• Edge: 5.3%
• Probability: 57.3%
• Matchup: Wizards vs. Suns (8:00PM ET, Sunday)

Wizards +14.5 carries a 5.3% edge and a probability of 57.3% at -108 odds, according to our model.

Kings +12.5 (-110)

• Edge: 4.0%
• Probability: 56.3%
• Matchup: Rockets vs. Kings (9:00PM ET, Sunday)

Kings +12.5 vs. Rockets at -110 odds shows a 4.0% edge, supported by a 56.3% probability in simulations.

Bucks ML (-132)

• Edge: 3.0%
• Probability: 59.9%
• Matchup: Bucks vs. Nuggets (8:00PM ET, Sunday)

A 3.0% edge and 59.9% probability make Bucks at the moneyline at a value play in the Bucks vs. Nuggets matchup, per our model.

Spurs vs. Timberwolves under 234.5 points (-105)

• Edge: 2.4%
• Probability: 53.6%
• Matchup: Spurs vs. Timberwolves (7:00PM ET, Sunday)

Spurs vs. Timberwolves under 234.5 points at -105 odds presents a 2.4% edge, with simulations resulting in a probability of 53.6%.

Warriors ML (-215)

• Edge: 2.4%
• Probability: 70.6%
• Matchup: Hawks vs. Warriors (8:30PM ET, Sunday)

Our model finds value on Warriors to win at -215 odds, supported by an edge of 2.4%.

76ers ML (-178)

• Edge: 2.4%
• Probability: 66.4%
• Matchup: 76ers vs. Raptors (6:00PM ET, Sunday)

Our model has uncovered value on 76ers ML at -178 odds. A 66.4% probability produces a 2.4% edge, making this a strong play for today's NBA action.

Knicks ML (-184)

• Edge: 2.2%
• Probability: 67%
• Matchup: Knicks vs. Trail Blazers (6:00PM ET, Sunday)

A 2.2% edge on a 67% probability makes Knicks to win at -184 odds a solid value play in today's Knicks vs. Trail Blazers matchup.

NBA best bets summary: Sunday, 1/11/2026

As of 9:33AM ET, here are our top NBA bets by edge recommended by our model:

Matchup	Bet	Odds	Edge	Probability
Heat vs. Thunder	Heat +13.5	-102 @ DraftKings	6.1%	56.6%
Wizards vs. Suns	Wizards +14.5	-108 @ FanDuel	5.3%	57.3%
Rockets vs. Kings	Kings +12.5	-110 @ BetMGM	4.0%	56.3%
Bucks vs. Nuggets	Bucks ML	-132 @ FanDuel	3.0%	59.9%
Spurs vs. Timberwolves	Under 234.5 Points	-105 @ BetMGM	2.4%	53.6%
Hawks vs. Warriors	Warriors ML	-215 @ FanDuel	2.4%	70.6%
76ers vs. Raptors	76ers ML	-178 @ FanDuel	2.4%	66.4%
Knicks vs. Trail Blazers	Knicks ML	-184 @ FanDuel	2.2%	67%

List of upcoming NBA games to bet on [1/11/2026]

• Pelicans vs. Magic (3:00PM ET, Sunday)
• Nets vs. Grizzlies (3:30PM ET, Sunday)
• Knicks vs. Trail Blazers (6:00PM ET, Sunday)
• 76ers vs. Raptors (6:00PM ET, Sunday)
• Heat vs. Thunder (7:00PM ET, Sunday)
• Spurs vs. Timberwolves (7:00PM ET, Sunday)
• Wizards vs. Suns (8:00PM ET, Sunday)
• Bucks vs. Nuggets (8:00PM ET, Sunday)
• Hawks vs. Warriors (8:30PM ET, Sunday)
• Rockets vs. Kings (9:00PM ET, Sunday)

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Conclusion

Our NBA best bets are locked and loaded for January 11, 2026, featuring plays such as Heat +13.5 and Wizards +14.5. Powered by advanced simulations, these picks are here to boost your betting game.

This article, enhanced by AI and automation, aims to deliver accurate NBA insights quickly, with human oversight ensuring high editorial quality. Our predictions are rooted in current data to help you make informed decisions. For additional resources and advice on responsible gambling, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.

All odds and probabilities in this article are correct and accurate at the time of publication.

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