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NBA first basket picks and predictions for Sunday, January 11, 2026
Updated: | First published:
Written by Jason Bevilacqua, Head of Content and Communities
Get first basket predictions today driven by expert analysis of NBA slate on 1/11.
Our NBA first basket picks and predictions for today—Sunday, January 11, 2026—are live with the Bucks' Giannis Antetokounmpo projected as the most likely player to score first.
Dimers’ first basket projections make use of detailed first basket stats, including player efficiency, shot frequency, and expected starting lineups, forming part of our daily NBA player projections.
Antetokounmpo, Jamal Murray and Jalen Brunson lead Sunday’s most likely first basket scorers, while we also identify tonight's top first basket value picks by comparing real-time odds to model-generated probabilities.
NBA first basket predictions tonight (January 11, 2026)
| Player | Team | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Giannis Antetokounmpo | Bucks | 20.6% |
| Jamal Murray | Nuggets | 16.9% |
| Jalen Brunson | Knicks | 15.8% |
| Zion Williamson | Pelicans | 15.7% |
| Anthony Edwards | Timberwolves | 15.5% |
| Shai Gilgeous-Alexander | Thunder | 15.5% |
| Kevin Durant | Rockets | 14.6% |
| Stephen Curry | Warriors | 14.5% |
| Norman Powell | Heat | 14.0% |
| Brandon Ingram | Raptors | 13.8% |
| Jalen Johnson | Hawks | 13.8% |
| Joel Embiid | 76ers | 13.7% |
| Nic Claxton | Nets | 13.4% |
| Devin Booker | Suns | 13.0% |
| Tyrese Maxey | 76ers | 12.7% |
NBA first basket picks today (January 11, 2026)
| Player | Team | Edge | Odds | Probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Giannis Antetokounmpo | Bucks | 2.4% | +450 | 20.6% |
| Tre Johnson | Wizards | 2.2% | +1000 | 11.3% |
| Norman Powell | Heat | 2.2% | +750 | 14.0% |
| Russell Westbrook | Kings | 2.0% | +1000 | 11.1% |
| Andrew Wiggins | Heat | 1.7% | +1000 | 10.8% |
| Scottie Barnes | Raptors | 1.7% | +1000 | 10.8% |
| Nickeil Alexander-Walker | Hawks | 1.0% | +850 | 11.5% |
| Peyton Watson | Nuggets | 0.8% | +750 | 12.5% |
| Brandon Ingram | Raptors | 0.5% | +650 | 13.9% |
| Jalen Johnson | Hawks | 0.4% | +650 | 13.8% |
| Alex Sarr | Wizards | 0.2% | +750 | 12.0% |
| Zach LaVine | Kings | 0.0% | +750 | 11.8% |
Edges represent the difference between model probability and implied odds.
For more insights on prop markets and value plays across the league, explore our full list of NBA prop bets for 1/11.
Conclusion: Betting on today's NBA first basket
For Sunday, January 11, 2026, Giannis Antetokounmpo, Jamal Murray and Jalen Brunson lead our first basket projections, with Antetokounmpo shaping as the strongest value play at +450. All picks and predictions are derived from Dimers’ NBA first basket model.
For tips and resources on responsible wagering, visit our Responsible Gambling section.
Jason Bevilacqua, an expert in MLB, NHL, NBA, MLS, and NFL, delivers game previews, best bets, and props. Since 2020, as Head of Social and Community at Dimers, he has contributed insightful articles utilizing data-driven models and simulations.
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