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Heat vs. Thunder Prediction, Picks and Odds
Our detailed prediction and analysis for the Heat vs. Thunder NBA game on January 11, 2026 is featured below. Drawing from 10,000 game simulations, we provide expert picks, betting odds, and insights.
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FINAL
NBA
FINAL
NBA
112
124
Jan 12, 12AM Paycom Center
Jan 12, 12AM Paycom Center
In-Play ProbabilitiesIn-Play
Game PredictionsPre-Game
Best Bets | TEAM | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Heat | 34 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 112 |
Thunder | 32 | 22 | 39 | 31 | 124 |
Live Probabilities
Spread
Over / Under
Moneyline
Win %
<1%
>99%
Win Probability
| TEAM | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Heat | 34 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 112 |
Thunder | 32 | 22 | 39 | 31 | 124 |
Q4 1:05 Simone Fontecchio makes three point jump shot (Kasparas Jakucionis assists)
Q4 4:57 Bam Adebayo misses two point jump shot
Q4 5:20 Jalen Williams misses two point pullup jump shot
Q4 6:37 Tyler Herro misses three point jump shot
Q4 11:06 Kel'el Ware makes two point alley-oop dunk (Nikola Jovic assists)
Q3 1:29 Ajay Mitchell misses three point jump shot
Q3 1:52 Andrew Wiggins makes three point jump shot (Dru Smith assists)
Q3 3:19 Kel'el Ware misses three point jump shot
Q3 3:32 Isaiah Joe makes three point jump shot (Shai Gilgeous-Alexander assists)
Q3 7:11 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander makes two point driving floating bank jump shot
Play by Play
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
ALL
+3
Simone Fontecchio makes three point jump shot (Kasparas Jakucionis assists)
112-124
Thunder 60 second timeout
+1
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander makes regular free throw 1 of 2
107-123
Bam Adebayo turnover (lost ball) (Aaron Wiggins steals)
Instant replay (Challenge: Stands)
Cason Wallace shooting foul (Pelle Larsson draws the foul)
Bam Adebayo misses two point jump shot
Chet Holmgren offensive rebound
Jalen Williams misses two point pullup jump shot
Davion Mitchell offensive rebound
Tyler Herro misses three point jump shot
Chet Holmgren offensive rebound
Heat lineup change (Bam Adebayo, Davion Mitchell, Tyler Herro, Nikola Jovic, Andrew Wiggins)
+1
Isaiah Joe makes regular free throw 2 of 3
90-105
Aaron Wiggins defensive rebound
Isaiah Joe offensive rebound
+2
Kel'el Ware makes two point alley-oop dunk (Nikola Jovic assists)
87-95
Nikola Jovic personal foul (Aaron Wiggins draws the foul)
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander misses regular free throw 1 of 2
+1
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander makes regular free throw 2 of 2
82-91
Ajay Mitchell misses three point jump shot
+3
Andrew Wiggins makes three point jump shot (Dru Smith assists)
79-90
Kel'el Ware misses three point jump shot
+3
Isaiah Joe makes three point jump shot (Shai Gilgeous-Alexander assists)
74-84
Isaiah Joe misses regular free throw 2 of 2
Thunder lineup change (Jaylin Williams, Alex Caruso, Isaiah Joe, Ajay Mitchell, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander)
Heat 60 second timeout
Jalen Williams personal foul (Andrew Wiggins draws the foul)
+2
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander makes two point driving floating bank jump shot
68-69
+2
Chet Holmgren makes two point cutting layup
66-67
+1
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander makes regular free throw 1 of 1
66-63
+2
Cason Wallace makes two point cutting layup (Shai Gilgeous-Alexander assists)
66-60
Stoppage (Out of bounds)
Jalen Williams misses two point pullup jump shot
Andrew Wiggins personal foul (Shai Gilgeous-Alexander draws the foul)
+2
Nikola Jovic makes two point cutting layup (Davion Mitchell assists)
59-54
+2
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander makes two point driving layup
55-54
Stoppage (Out of bounds)
Dru Smith misses regular free throw 1 of 2
Jaylin Williams misses two point driving layup
+1
Jaylin Williams makes regular free throw 2 of 2
49-46
Nikola Jovic defensive rebound
Jaime Jaquez Jr. misses three point jump shot
Jalen Williams turnover (offensive foul)
Thunder lineup change (Cason Wallace, Jaylin Williams, Alex Caruso, Luguentz Dort, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander)
Bam Adebayo defensive rebound
Heat lineup change (Bam Adebayo, Davion Mitchell, Nikola Jovic, Jaime Jaquez Jr., Pelle Larsson)
Jalen Williams misses regular free throw 1 of 2
Thunder offensive rebound
Nikola Jovic misses three point jump shot
Ajay Mitchell misses two point cutting layup
Chet Holmgren blocks Tyler Herro's two point driving layup
Pelle Larsson misses three point jump shot
Heat 60 second timeout
Aaron Wiggins misses three point running jump shot
Davion Mitchell misses two point driving layup
Tyler Herro personal foul (Jalen Williams draws the foul)
Thunder lineup change (Luguentz Dort, Chet Holmgren, Ajay Mitchell, Jalen Williams, Aaron Wiggins)
Heat offensive rebound
Bam Adebayo misses two point tip layup
Pelle Larsson defensive rebound
Nikola Jovic personal foul (Chet Holmgren draws the foul)
Pelle Larsson turnover (out of bounds bad pass)
Heat lineup change (Kel'el Ware, Nikola Jovic, Dru Smith, Pelle Larsson, Andrew Wiggins)
+2
Aaron Wiggins makes two point driving dunk (Jalen Williams assists)
41-38
Jaime Jaquez Jr. offensive foul (Jalen Williams draws the foul)
+2
Jalen Williams makes two point pullup jump shot
41-36
Chet Holmgren misses three point jump shot
+2
Jalen Williams makes two point running alley-oop dunk (Aaron Wiggins assists)
38-34
Jalen Williams turnover (lost ball) (Kel'el Ware steals)
Ajay Mitchell defensive rebound
Nikola Jovic defensive rebound
Thunder 60 second timeout
Dru Smith defensive rebound
+2
Kel'el Ware makes two point hook shot (Dru Smith assists)
36-32
Dru Smith personal foul (Kenrich Williams draws the foul)
Kel'el Ware misses two point driving dunk
Jump ball. Nikola Jovic vs. Ajay Mitchell (Andrew Wiggins gains possession)
Start of 2nd Quarter
+3
Andrew Wiggins makes three point jump shot
34-32
+2
Dru Smith makes two point floating jump shot (Jaime Jaquez Jr. assists)
31-32
Dru Smith turnover (out of bounds bad pass)
Thunder lineup change (Jaylin Williams, Alex Caruso, Isaiah Joe, Ajay Mitchell, Jalen Williams)
Andrew Wiggins defensive rebound
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander misses regular free throw 2 of 2
Ajay Mitchell defensive rebound
+1
Jaylin Williams makes regular free throw 1 of 2
29-28
+2
Kel'el Ware makes two point cutting dunk (Dru Smith assists)
29-27
Jaylin Williams defensive rebound
+2
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander makes two point stepback jump shot
27-25
Andrew Wiggins misses two point pullup jump shot
+1
Jaylin Williams makes regular free throw 2 of 2
27-23
Kel'el Ware shooting foul (Jaylin Williams draws the foul)
+3
Jaylin Williams makes three point jump shot (Alex Caruso assists)
27-21
Stoppage (Out of bounds)
Heat lineup change (Kel'el Ware, Nikola Jovic, Dru Smith, Jaime Jaquez Jr., Andrew Wiggins)
Jaylin Williams misses three point jump shot
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander turnover (bad pass) (Pelle Larsson steals)
Stoppage (Out of bounds)
Heat lineup change (Tyler Herro, Kel'el Ware, Dru Smith, Jaime Jaquez Jr., Pelle Larsson)
+2
Davion Mitchell makes two point driving floating bank jump shot
23-18
Thunder lineup change (Cason Wallace, Jaylin Williams, Alex Caruso, Isaiah Joe, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander)
+2
Tyler Herro makes two point driving floating jump shot (Davion Mitchell assists)
21-16
Chet Holmgren misses three point running jump shot
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander turnover (bad pass) (Jaime Jaquez Jr. steals)
Chet Holmgren blocks Pelle Larsson's two point driving layup
+2
Tyler Herro makes two point driving layup (Jaime Jaquez Jr. assists)
19-14
Bam Adebayo turnover (out of bounds lost ball)
+3
Chet Holmgren makes three point jump shot (Shai Gilgeous-Alexander assists)
17-12
Luguentz Dort offensive foul (Pelle Larsson draws the foul)
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander shooting foul (Pelle Larsson draws the foul)
+1
Pelle Larsson makes regular free throw 1 of 1
17-9
Chet Holmgren offensive rebound
Cason Wallace defensive rebound
+2
Jalen Williams makes two point pullup jump shot (Shai Gilgeous-Alexander assists)
14-7
Bam Adebayo misses three point jump shot
Luguentz Dort misses two point turnaround fadeaway jump shot
Thunder offensive rebound
Bam Adebayo shooting foul (Cason Wallace draws the foul)
Davion Mitchell turnover (bad pass) (Jalen Williams steals)
Pelle Larsson blocks Cason Wallace's two point driving floating bank jump shot
Jalen Williams turnover (out of bounds bad pass)
Tyler Herro misses two point fadeaway jump shot
Chet Holmgren offensive rebound
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander misses three point jump shot
Bam Adebayo defensive rebound
Tyler Herro personal foul (Cason Wallace draws the foul)
Bam Adebayo misses two point driving floating jump shot
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander misses two point pullup jump shot
Andrew Wiggins defensive rebound
+3
Andrew Wiggins makes three point jump shot (Davion Mitchell assists)
3-2
Luguentz Dort defensive rebound
Start of 1st Quarter
Bam Adebayo vs. Chet Holmgren (Tyler Herro gains possession)
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Heat vs. Thunder: Detailed Breakdown
Matchup Overview
- Teams: Heat vs. Thunder
- Date: Sunday, January 11, 2026
- Time: 7:00 PM ET
- Venue: Paycom Center
Current Betting Odds
- Spread: Thunder favored at -14.5
- Total (Over/Under): 234
- Moneyline Odds: Heat +625, Thunder -800
Dimers' Win Probabilities
- Heat: 14%
- Thunder: 86%
Dimers' predictive model, renowned for its accuracy, assesses each team's chances by simulating the outcome of the game 10,000 times. This method provides a precise and unbiased view.
Projected Final Score
Our predicted final score for this NBA matchup is Heat 109-122 Thunder.
This prediction is based on each team's average score following 10,000 game simulations.
Our Prediction: Who Wins?
After extensive simulations, our model gives the Heat a win probability of 14%, while the Thunder have a win probability of 86%. Discover the best spread, over/under, and moneyline odds for the game on this page.
Summary
According to our analysis, the Thunder are more likely to beat the Heat in the NBA game at Paycom Center on Monday. Discover the best spread, over/under and moneyline odds, picks and probabilities for the game on this page.
Our Heat vs. Thunder predictions, based on sophisticated simulations and current data, guide you in making informed decisions. Remember to bet responsibly and within your financial limits.
For additional resources and advice on responsible gambling, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.
When you click or tap on a link on Dimers that goes to a third-party website that we have a commercial relationship with (such as a sportsbook), we may receive a referral fee.
For further insights, explore our expert NBA predictions and the best NBA bets today, while our in-depth analysis includes NBA props, NBA futures, NBA odds, and the latest NBA news.
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