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Fremantle Dockers vs. Hawthorn Hawks prediction: Dockers favored to win Thursday's AFL Round 9 matchup [5/7/2026]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Jason Bevilacqua, Head of Content and Communities
Get Fremantle Dockers vs Hawthorn Hawks predictions for AFL Thursday.
The Fremantle Dockers and Hawthorn Hawks are scheduled to meet in the Australian Football League (AFL) at Optus Stadium on Thursday, starting at 6:10 AM ET.
Based on updated simulation results, Dimers' proven AFL model predicts the Dockers as the most likely winner of the Hawks vs. Dockers game.
This article offers a closer look at Thursday's matchup, including best bets and picks.
Dockers vs. Hawks prediction: Who will win Round 9 game?
Using trusted machine learning and data, we have simulated the outcome of Thursday's AFL matchup between the Hawks and Dockers, forming part of our AFL predictions coverage.
Our independent predictive model currently gives the Dockers a 57% chance of beating the Hawks.
According to our model, the Dockers (-4.5) have a 51% chance of covering the spread, while the over/under total of 183.5 points has a 52% chance of staying under.
Hawthorn vs. Fremantle odds
We have sourced the best AFL odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | Hawks | Dockers |
|---|---|---|
| H2H (Moneyline) | +105 | -130 |
| Line (Spread) | +4.5 (-115) | -4.5 (-115) |
| Total | o183.5 (-115) | u183.5 (-115) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Hawks vs. Dockers picks and best bet
After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Dockers -4.5 | -115 |
| Moneyline | Dockers | -130 |
| Total | Under 183.5 | -115 |
According to our AFL best bets, the top play to make on this game is Dockers to win.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.
Dockers vs. Hawks game-day updates and essential details
Thursday's Australian rules football action between the Dockers and Hawks at Optus Stadium is scheduled to start at 6:10 AM ET.
- Who: Hawthorn Hawks vs. Fremantle Dockers
- Date: Thursday, May 7, 2026
- Time: 6:10 AM ET/3:10AM PT
- Venue: Optus Stadium
The AFL is available to bet on in the US through all major sportsbooks, with fans highlighting the high-octane 360-degree nature of the sport as a top reason to follow it.
Conclusion
We predict the Dockers, with a 57% win probability, will likely beat the Hawks in Thursday's AFL matchup.
Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.
Jason Bevilacqua, an expert in MLB, NHL, NBA, MLS, and NFL, delivers game previews, best bets, and props. Since 2020, as Head of Social and Community at Dimers, he has contributed insightful articles utilizing data-driven models and simulations.
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