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Cavaliers vs. Pelicans prediction: Cleveland to win, Donovan Mitchell projected for big game in Saturday's NBA matchup [3/21/2026]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Jason Bevilacqua, Head of Content and Communities
Get Cleveland Cavaliers vs New Orleans Pelicans predictions for NBA Saturday.
The New Orleans Pelicans will square off with the favored Cleveland Cavaliers in NBA action at Smoothie King Center on Saturday, beginning at 7:00 PM ET.
Based on updated simulations and today’s injury news, Dimers' advanced NBA model predicts the Cavaliers as the most likely winner of the Cavaliers vs. Pelicans game.
This prediction follows the latest NBA Injury Report, which suggests the Pelicans lineup will feature stars like Trey Murphy, Zion Williamson and Saddiq Bey, while the Cavaliers will look to Donovan Mitchell, James Harden and Evan Mobley.
This article offers a closer look at Saturday's matchup, including an expanded look at the predicted score, best bets and player prop picks.
Cavs vs. Pelicans prediction: Who will win and cover?
Using trusted machine learning and data, we have simulated the result of Saturday's NBA game between the Cavaliers and Pelicans 10,000 times as part of our NBA predictions coverage.
Our leading predictive model gives the Cavaliers a 65% chance of defeating the Pelicans. Our predicted final score has the Cavaliers winning 120-116.
According to our model, the Pelicans (+5) have a 53% chance of covering the spread, while the 238.5-point over/under has a 53% chance of staying under.
Cavaliers vs. Pelicans odds
We have sourced the best NBA odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | Cavaliers | Pelicans |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | -5 (-110) | +5 (-110) |
| Moneyline | -205 | +190 |
| Total | o238.5 (-110) | u238.5 (-105) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Cavaliers vs. Pelicans picks and best bet
After matching our predictions against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Pelicans +5 | -110 |
| Moneyline | Pelicans | +190 |
| Total | Under 238.5 | -105 |
According to our best NBA bets for Saturday, the top play to make on this game is Under 238.5 total points.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.
Cavaliers vs. Pelicans player props
Looking for Cleveland vs. New Orleans NBA player props? We have crunched the numbers to project how each team's leading players will perform at Smoothie King Center.
Donovan Mitchell is expected to lead the Cavaliers with 27 points, 5 rebounds and 6 assists, while Trey Murphy is projected to have 23 points, 5 rebounds and 4 assists for the Pelicans.
Check out our NBA player projections for a full range of projected box scores, including points, assists, rebounds and today's NBA first basket picks.
Cavaliers prediction
Our model's projected player stats for the Cavaliers are:
| Player | PTS | REB | AST | 3PM | DFS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D. Mitchell | 27 | 5 | 6 | 3 | 48 |
| James Harden | 23 | 5 | 9 | 3 | 48 |
| Evan Mobley | 19 | 10 | 3 | 1 | 43 |
| Sam Merrill | 12 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 23 |
| Max Strus | 10 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 23 |
Pelicans prediction
Projected points, rebounds, assists and three-pointers made for the Pelicans:
| Player | PTS | REB | AST | 3PM | DFS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trey Murphy | 23 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 42 |
| Zion Williamson | 21 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 37 |
| Saddiq Bey | 19 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 34 |
| Dejounte Murray | 18 | 6 | 7 | 2 | 41 |
| Herbert Jones | 9 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 23 |
Cavs vs. Pelicans game-day updates and essential details
Saturday's action between the Pelicans and Cavaliers at Smoothie King Center is scheduled to start at 7:00 PM ET.
- Who: Cleveland Cavaliers vs. New Orleans Pelicans
- Date: Saturday, March 21, 2026
- Time: 7:00 PM ET/4:00PM PT
- Venue: Smoothie King Center
Conclusion
We predict the Cavaliers, with a 65% win probability, will likely beat the Pelicans on Saturday, with James Harden projected for a game-high 48 fantasy points.
AI and automation have enhanced this article to quickly deliver accurate Cavaliers vs. Pelicans insights, with human oversight ensuring high editorial quality. Our predictions are sourced from the latest data to help you make informed decisions. For additional resources and advice on responsible gambling, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.
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Jason Bevilacqua, an expert in MLB, NHL, NBA, MLS, and NFL, delivers game previews, best bets, and props. Since 2020, as Head of Social and Community at Dimers, he has contributed insightful articles utilizing data-driven models and simulations.
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