...
...
Read Article
- More Betting
NBA first basket picks and predictions for Saturday, March 21, 2026
Updated: | First published:
Written by Nick Slade, Chief Content Officer
Get first basket predictions today driven by expert analysis of NBA slate on 3/21.
Our NBA first basket picks and predictions for today—Saturday, March 21, 2026—are live with the Jazz' Ace Bailey projected as the most likely player to score first.
These projections make use of key first basket stats, including player efficiency, shot frequency, and expected starting lineups, forming part of our daily NBA player projections.
Bailey, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Luka Doncic lead Saturday’s most likely first basket scorers, while we also highlight tonight's best first basket value picks by comparing real-time odds to model-generated probabilities.
NBA first basket predictions tonight (March 21, 2026)
| Player | Team | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Ace Bailey | Jazz | 16.9% |
| Shai Gilgeous-Alexander | Thunder | 16.6% |
| Luka Doncic | Lakers | 15.9% |
| Devin Booker | Suns | 15.4% |
| Kawhi Leonard | Clippers | 15.2% |
| De'Anthony Melton | Warriors | 15.1% |
| Victor Wembanyama | Spurs | 15.0% |
| Cooper Flagg | Mavericks | 14.9% |
| Evan Mobley | Cavaliers | 14.7% |
| LaMelo Ball | Hornets | 14.2% |
| Jalen Green | Suns | 13.7% |
| Dejounte Murray | Pelicans | 13.0% |
| Bam Adebayo | Heat | 13.0% |
| De'Aaron Fox | Spurs | 13.0% |
| Alperen Sengun | Rockets | 12.7% |
NBA first basket picks today (March 21, 2026)
| Player | Team | Edge | Odds | Probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| De'Anthony Melton | Warriors | 5.5% | +950 | 15.1% |
| Naji Marshall | Mavericks | 4.7% | +1400 | 11.4% |
| Cooper Flagg | Mavericks | 3.2% | +750 | 14.9% |
| Amen Thompson | Rockets | 2.7% | +1100 | 11.0% |
| Alex Sarr | Wizards | 2.5% | +900 | 12.5% |
| Kyle Kuzma | Bucks | 2.4% | +1000 | 11.5% |
| Justin Edwards | 76ers | 1.6% | +850 | 12.2% |
| LeBron James | Lakers | 1.5% | +950 | 11.0% |
| Ace Bailey | Jazz | 1.5% | +550 | 16.9% |
| Kevin Durant | Rockets | 1.0% | +800 | 12.1% |
| VJ Edgecombe | 76ers | 0.4% | +750 | 12.1% |
Edges represent the difference between model probability and implied odds.
For more insights on prop markets and value plays across the league, explore our full list of NBA prop bets for 3/21.
Conclusion: Betting on today's NBA first basket
For Saturday, March 21, 2026, Ace Bailey, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Luka Doncic lead our first basket projections, while De'Anthony Melton shapes as the strongest value play at +950. All picks and predictions are derived from Dimers’ NBA first basket model.
For tips and resources on responsible wagering, visit our Responsible Gambling section.
Nick Slade, with nearly two decades of experience, is the Chief Content Officer at Cipher Sports Technology Group, overseeing content for Dimers. He specializes in soccer, NBA, and NHL betting, leveraging predictive analytics and machine learning to provide accurate betting insights.
Advertiser disclosure