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NFL Week 6: Best Player Prop Bet for Bills vs. Falcons in Prime Time
Updated: | First published:
Written by Nick Slade, Chief Content Officer
Reviewed by Dave Garofolo
In what's projected to be a close win for the Bills, we're targeting a player prop to get us back into the win column on Monday Night Football.
The Buffalo Bills head to Mercedes-Benz Stadium to take on the Atlanta Falcons for Week 6 Monday Night Football. In what's projected to be a close win for the Bills (26-23), we are targeting a low-number player prop to get us back into the win column after a slight two-game slump.
We are looking to reignite our hot streak, which recently saw us cash three straight bets with Jahmyr Gibbs, Kyler Murray, and Jordan Love.
Our top pick tonight is Bills wide receiver Joshua Palmer Over 19.5 Receiving Yards.
When identifying this NFL player prop bet, our process began with the Dimers NFL Trends page, which shows a significant historical success rate against this very low line. Looking at the broader data, while Palmer has had some down games recently, he has historically demonstrated the ability to clear this low threshold.
More importantly, when the line is set this low (19.5 yards), it provides a tremendous floor for a capable receiver in a high-powered offense.
In four of his five games this season, Palmer has cleared this number, including:
- Week 1 vs. Ravens: 61 Receiving Yards
- Week 2 at Jets: 47 Receiving Yards
- Week 4 vs. Saints: 25 Receiving Yards
- Week 5 vs. Patriots: 36 Receiving Yards
Next, we consulted the Dimers NFL Player Projections page, which confirms the numerical edge. Palmer is projected to finish with 24.7 Receiving Yards, a substantial margin above the 19.5-yard prop line. This projection is backed by insights that suggest the Bills will utilize Palmer's ability to stretch the field, especially against man coverage, which the Falcons employ at a high rate.
With fellow pass-catchers like Dalton Kincaid and Curtis Samuel dealing with injuries, Palmer's snap share and downfield usage could see a clear boost.
Combining his strong historical trend of hitting the Over on low lines and a compelling statistical projection, the Joshua Palmer Over 19.5 Receiving Yards (-114) is the Prime Time Prop Bet to ride tonight as we aim to secure our fourth win.
To give you the most accurate and helpful information, this article has been reviewed and edited by Dave Garofolo through our fact-checking process.
Nick Slade, with nearly two decades of experience, is the Chief Content Officer at Cipher Sports Technology Group, overseeing content for Dimers. He specializes in soccer, NBA, and NHL betting, leveraging predictive analytics and machine learning to provide accurate betting insights.
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