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Hawks vs. Rockets prediction: Houston to win, Kevin Durant projected for big game in Friday's NBA matchup [3/20/2026]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Jason Bevilacqua, Head of Content and Communities
Get Atlanta Hawks vs Houston Rockets predictions for NBA Friday.
The Houston Rockets will take on the Atlanta Hawks in NBA action at Toyota Center on Friday, commencing at 8:00 PM ET.
Based on updated simulation results and today’s injury news, Dimers' advanced NBA model predicts the Rockets as the most likely winner of the Hawks vs. Rockets game.
This prediction follows the latest NBA Injury Report, which suggests the Rockets lineup will feature players like Kevin Durant, Amen Thompson and Alperen Sengun, while the Hawks will rely on Jalen Johnson, Nickeil Alexander-Walker and CJ McCollum.
This article offers a closer look at Friday's matchup, including an expanded look at the predicted score, best bets and player prop picks.
Hawks vs. Rockets prediction: Who will win and cover?
Using trusted machine learning and data, we have simulated the outcome of Friday's NBA game between the Hawks and Rockets 10,000 times as part of our NBA predictions coverage.
Our leading predictive model currently gives the Rockets a 64% chance of defeating the Hawks. Our predicted final score has the Rockets winning 115-111.
According to our model, the Rockets (-3.5) have a 52% chance of covering the spread, while the 227.5-point over/under has an equal 50-50 chance of hitting.
Hawks vs. Rockets odds
We have sourced the best NBA odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | Hawks | Rockets |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | +3.5 (-125) | -3.5 (-105) |
| Moneyline | +125 | -144 |
| Total | o227.5 (-105) | u227.5 (-108) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Hawks vs. Rockets picks and best bet
After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Rockets -3.5 | -105 |
| Moneyline | Rockets | -144 |
| Total | Over 227.5 | -105 |
According to our best NBA bets for Friday, the top play to make on this game is Rockets to win.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.
Hawks vs. Rockets player props
NBA prop bets are an enjoyable way to wager on the Hawks vs. Rockets game without necessarily betting on the outcome. We use the best information available to project how each team's leading players will perform at Toyota Center.
Jalen Johnson is expected to lead the Hawks with 24 points, 10 rebounds and 8 assists, while Kevin Durant is projected to have 27 points, 6 rebounds and 5 assists for the Rockets.
Check out our NBA player projections for a full range of projected box scores, including points, assists, rebounds and today's NBA first basket picks.
Hawks prediction
Our model's projected player stats for the Hawks are:
| Player | PTS | REB | AST | 3PM | DFS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jalen Johnson | 24 | 10 | 8 | 1 | 54 |
| N. Alexander-Walker | 19 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 35 |
| CJ McCollum | 18 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 32 |
| Onyeka Okongwu | 14 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 34 |
| Dyson Daniels | 12 | 6 | 5 | 0 | 33 |
Rockets prediction
Projected points, rebounds, assists and three-pointers made for the Rockets:
| Player | PTS | REB | AST | 3PM | DFS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevin Durant | 27 | 6 | 5 | 2 | 49 |
| Amen Thompson | 20 | 9 | 6 | 0 | 45 |
| Alperen Sengun | 20 | 9 | 6 | 0 | 46 |
| Jabari Smith | 15 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 32 |
| Reed Sheppard | 15 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 30 |
Hawks vs. Rockets game-day updates and essential details
Friday's matchup between the Rockets and Hawks at Toyota Center is scheduled to commence at 8:00 PM ET.
- Who: Atlanta Hawks vs. Houston Rockets
- Date: Friday, March 20, 2026
- Time: 8:00 PM ET/5:00PM PT
- Venue: Toyota Center
Conclusion
We predict the Rockets, with a 64% win probability, will likely beat the Hawks on Friday, with Jalen Johnson projected for a game-high 54 fantasy points.
AI and automation have enhanced this article to quickly deliver accurate Hawks vs. Rockets insights, with human oversight ensuring high editorial quality. Our predictions are drawn from up-to-date data to help you make informed decisions. For additional resources and advice on responsible gambling, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.
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Jason Bevilacqua, an expert in MLB, NHL, NBA, MLS, and NFL, delivers game previews, best bets, and props. Since 2020, as Head of Social and Community at Dimers, he has contributed insightful articles utilizing data-driven models and simulations.
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