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NBA first basket picks and predictions for Friday, March 20, 2026
Updated: | First published:
Written by Damien Souness, Chief Innovation Officer
Get first basket predictions today guided by expert analysis of NBA slate on 3/20.
Our NBA first basket picks and predictions for today—Friday, March 20, 2026—are live with the Pistons' Jalen Duren projected as the most likely player to score first.
Dimers’ first basket projections draw on detailed first basket stats, including player efficiency, shot frequency, and expected starting lineups, forming part of our daily NBA player projections.
Duren, Nikola Jokic and Karl-Anthony Towns lead Friday’s most likely first basket scorers, while we also highlight tonight's best first basket value picks by comparing real-time odds to model-generated probabilities.
NBA first basket predictions tonight (March 20, 2026)
| Player | Team | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Jalen Duren | Pistons | 17.7% |
| Nikola Jokic | Nuggets | 14.1% |
| Karl-Anthony Towns | Knicks | 13.6% |
| Ty Jerome | Grizzlies | 13.4% |
| De'Anthony Melton | Warriors | 13.3% |
| Jaylen Brown | Celtics | 13.1% |
| Julius Randle | Timberwolves | 13.0% |
| Ayo Dosunmu | Timberwolves | 12.9% |
| RJ Barrett | Raptors | 12.8% |
| Alperen Sengun | Rockets | 12.7% |
| Jayson Tatum | Celtics | 12.6% |
| Jrue Holiday | Trail Blazers | 12.5% |
| Nolan Traore | Nets | 12.3% |
| Jalen Brunson | Knicks | 12.1% |
| Kevin Durant | Rockets | 11.9% |
NBA first basket picks today (March 20, 2026)
| Player | Team | Edge | Odds | Probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jalen Duren | Pistons | 3.4% | +600 | 17.7% |
| RJ Barrett | Raptors | 3.3% | +950 | 12.8% |
| De'Anthony Melton | Warriors | 2.2% | +800 | 13.3% |
| Ayo Dosunmu | Timberwolves | 1.8% | +800 | 12.9% |
| Amen Thompson | Rockets | 1.3% | +950 | 10.8% |
| Jayson Tatum | Celtics | 0.9% | +750 | 12.6% |
| Jrue Holiday | Trail Blazers | 0.7% | +750 | 12.5% |
| Jaylen Wells | Grizzlies | 0.7% | +1000 | 9.7% |
| Jalen Johnson | Hawks | 0.5% | +800 | 11.6% |
| Ty Jerome | Grizzlies | 0.1% | +650 | 13.4% |
Edges represent the difference between model probability and implied odds.
For more insights on prop markets and value plays across the league, explore our full list of NBA prop bets for 3/20.
Conclusion: Betting on today's NBA first basket
For Friday, March 20, 2026, Jalen Duren, Nikola Jokic and Karl-Anthony Towns lead our first basket projections, with Duren shaping as the strongest value play at +600. All picks and predictions are derived from Dimers’ NBA first basket model.
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Damien Souness leverages over 15 years of experience to create engaging content focused on sports, online gaming and wagering. As Chief Innovation Officer at Cipher Sports Technology Group, the parent company of Dimers, he offers strategic insights and innovative solutions to enhance the player experience.
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