2026 NBA Cup preview: Predictions, picks and odds

The 2026 NBA Cup tips off on October 30, and Dimers' NBA predictions make the San Antonio Spurs the team to beat at 16.4%, roughly a 1-in-6 shot, while the books' second-favorite, the Thunder, are dealing with an injury to Jalen Williams that our model says the betting markets haven't caught up to yet.

We simulated every group game and knockout round to see who comes out of each group, identify the best NBA bets where the market is mispricing teams, and which conference is most likely to lift the trophy in Indianapolis on December 11.

Beyond our futures predictions for the tournament, Dimers Pro subscribers get access to every single NBA best bet, player prop, our upgraded NBA player projections and insight for every single game, all season long.

Get 20% off Dimers Pro with an NBA season pass.

What is the NBA Cup?

The NBA Cup is the league's in-season tournament, now in its fourth year. The Knicks are the defending champions after beating the Spurs in last year's final, and no team has won it twice.

• Group stage (Oct 30 to Nov 27): each conference is split into three groups of five. Every team plays four group games, two at home and two on the road.
• Who advances: the three group winners in each conference plus one wild card, the best second-placed team, reach the quarterfinals.
• Quarterfinals (Dec 4-5): played in team markets.
• Semifinals (Dec 8-9): hosted by the higher-seeded team in each conference.
• Championship (Dec 11): at Hinkle Fieldhouse in Indianapolis, the first final held outside Las Vegas.

Every Cup game except the final still counts toward the regular-season standings. The prize pool goes to players on knockout-round teams, with bigger payouts the further they go.

Dimers' 2026 NBA Cup predictions

The Spurs are clear favorites at 16.4%. They are the most likely team to win their group (53.6%) and to reach the final (26.9%), and after losing last year's final, they're the best bet to go one step further.

Our model says the Thunder would be the favorites with a healthy roster. Jalen Williams fractured his left fibula and dislocated his ankle against the Clippers on October 25, and after surgery he is expected to miss most, if not all, of the season. Without him, OKC drops from 17.3% to 11.0%.

The opening games of the NBA Cup starting on October 30, 2026.

With that factored in, the Spurs climbed from 15.1% to our favorite at 16.4%, and the Timberwolves, OKC's main threat in West Group B, rise from 4.4% to 5.4%.

Overall, the Western Conference wins the NBA Cup 54% of the time in our simulations, while the Celtics own the best chance out of the East at 9.3%, with the Pistons (7.3%) and Raptors (7.1%) not too far behind.

Who will win the NBA Cup?

Here's how every team projects within their own five-team group, up against their overall chances to win the whole tournament.

East Group A

This is the tightest group in the tournament among the top contenders. The Pistons and Raptors are almost level in their chances to win, and their group stage meeting could decide the winner. The Magic are in a middle tier of their own, while the Nets and Bucks are longshots.

• Detroit Pistons: 36.6% | Cup 7.3%
• Toronto Raptors: 35.6% | Cup 7.1%
• Orlando Magic: 17.9% | Cup 1.7%
• Brooklyn Nets: 5.3% | Cup 0.2%
• Milwaukee Bucks: 4.6% | Cup 0.2%

East Group B

The defending champion Knicks lead a wider-open group, but every team gets at least an 11% chance to win it, with three of them clearing 20%. The 76ers are the closest challenger, a team our model finds among the most overpriced to win the tournament.

• New York Knicks: 29.6% | Cup 5.3%
• Philadelphia 76ers: 25.2% | Cup 4.4%
• Cleveland Cavaliers: 20.6% | Cup 2.9%
• Miami Heat: 13.1% | Cup 1.2%
• Indiana Pacers: 11.5% | Cup 1.3%

East Group C

The Celtics are the East's strongest group favorite and the conference's best Cup hope. The Hawks are the only team our model treats as a true threat within the group.

• Boston Celtics: 45.3% | Cup 9.3%
• Atlanta Hawks: 27.1% | Cup 3.3%
• Washington Wizards: 11.9% | Cup 0.7%
• Charlotte Hornets: 11.8% | Cup 1.1%
• Chicago Bulls: 3.9% | Cup 0.1%

Our top-projected scorers for the opening night of the NBA Cup.

West Group A

The Rockets are clear favorites, but their 14.6% advantage over the Nuggets is the shortest between the top two teams in any of the three Western Conference groups. The Suns, Mavericks and Jazz have about a 1-in-10 chance each.

• Houston Rockets: 43.0% | Cup 7.4%
• Denver Nuggets: 28.4% | Cup 3.4%
• Phoenix Suns: 10.6% | Cup 0.8%
• Dallas Mavericks: 10.1% | Cup 0.6%
• Utah Jazz: 7.9% | Cup 0.4%

West Group B

Even without Jalen Williams, the Thunder are favorites to win the group at 46.2%. His absence makes the Timberwolves a more serious threat than they would otherwise be, but they are over 16% behind OKC.

• Oklahoma City Thunder: 46.2% | Cup 11.0%
• Minnesota Timberwolves: 29.6% | Cup 5.4%
• Memphis Grizzlies: 12.9% | Cup 0.9%
• New Orleans Pelicans: 7.2% | Cup 0.4%
• LA Clippers: 4.1% | Cup 0.3%

West Group C

The Spurs are the biggest group favorite in the tournament at 53.6%. The Blazers and the Lakers are predicted to battle for second and a possible wild-card spot, while the Kings have the lowest probability out of any team to win their group in either conference.

• San Antonio Spurs: 53.6% | Cup 16.4%
• Portland Trail Blazers: 21.1% | Cup 3.2%
• Los Angeles Lakers: 17.3% | Cup 3.1%
• Golden State Warriors: 6.6% | Cup 0.6%
• Sacramento Kings: 1.4% | Cup 0.1%

Dimers' best value bet to win the NBA Cup

Toronto Raptors: We give the Raptors a 7.1% chance to win the Cup, which works out to about +1300. DraftKings has them at +2000, an implied 4.8%. That is the biggest gap anywhere in the field. Toronto is in a near coin-flip with Detroit for East A (35.6% vs 36.6%), and the market is pricing them as a clear second.

Minnesota Timberwolves: We have the Timberwolves at 5.4%, about +1750. DraftKings has Minnesota at +2500 without Anthony Edwards, an implied 3.8%. Minnesota has a 29.6% chance to win the group and a 10.8% chance to take the wild card.

Houston Rockets: Our 7.4% probability is third-best in the West and fourth overall in the tournament, and puts the Rockets at about +1250. Fanatics Sportsbook has them at +1500, an implied 6.3% for just over a 1% edge. Houston is the 43.0% favorite in West A, and only the Spurs, Thunder and Celtics have a higher chance of reaching the knockout rounds.

Our model's most overpriced teams in the NBA Cup

Oklahoma City Thunder: We have the Thunder at 11.0%, about +800. The books range from +450 to +550 as the tournament's second favorite behind the Spurs, which implies as high as 18.2%. Those prices look closer to our 17.3% for a healthy OKC, so we think the market hasn't fully priced in losing Jalen Williams.

Philadelphia 76ers: Our 4.4% makes the 76ers about +2200. DraftKings has them at +1200, an implied 7.7%. Philadelphia is only the second favorite in East B (25.2% to win the group), and the books are pricing them closer to a group favorite.

Bet on the NBA Cup with a Dimers Pro Season Pass

San Antonio is the team to beat, but the most interesting angles are further down the board.

Toronto, Minnesota and Houston are all priced longer than our model says they should be, while Oklahoma City is still being priced like a team that has Jalen Williams.

Group play begins on October 30, and Dimers Pro gives you unlimited access to every best bet, player prop, projection and data-backed insight from the Dimers model for every single game throughout the tournament and beyond.

Get 20% off for the full season with a Dimers Pro NBA Season Pass.

Responsible Gambling

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-MY-RESET. Please gamble responsibly. Must be 21+ where legal.