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2026 RBC Heritage predictions: Golf picks and best bets at Harbour Town Golf Links
Updated: | First published:
Written by Dave Garofolo, Content Producer
Reviewed by Nick Slade
The 2026 PGA TOUR heads to Hilton Head, SC for the RBC Heritage, the latest Signature Event, and we break down the best value from the Dimers model.
The Dimers golf predictions and best golf bets are back for the RBC Heritage, teeing off on Thursday, April 16, through Sunday, April 19 at Harbour Town Golf Links in Hilton Head, SC.
In recent weeks, our predictions have identified Cameron Young to win THE PLAYERS, Matt Fitzpatrick to win the Valspar Championship, and cashing our reduced odds H2H parlay at the Masters.
This week, we've got a Signature Event with a massive $20,000,000 purse and no cut, with an 82-player field. Harbour Town has hosted this event since the 1960's so golfers returning to this tournament will be plenty familiar with the course.
The start of three Signature Events across four weeks, Harbour Town is one of the most distinctive venues on the PGA TOUR calendar, a tight, demanding layout defined by narrow fairways, numerous doglegs, sharp angles, and small putting surfaces that average just 3,700 square feet, making them some of the smallest green targets players will face all season.
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What makes Harbour Town truly unique is the skill set it demands. Unlike many stops on TOUR where bombers off the tee hold a significant advantage, driving distance and accuracy off the tee are among the least important statistics at this event.
Top finishes have consistently gained more strokes on Approach than Off the Tee and we'll see many golfers use less than driver to prioritize placement over power.
Ball-strikers who can thread precise approach shots into these tiny, tricky greens are the ones who tend to contend come Sunday, while the big hitters will need to rely on their short games and wedge play to stay relevant. Mid-tier putters can mask some of their deficiencies with the small greens.
Defending champion Justin Thomas returns to Hilton Head looking to recapture the magic of his 2025 triumph, when he defeated Andrew Novak on the first hole of a sudden-death playoff, ending a nearly three-year victory drought for Thomas dating back to the 2022 PGA Championship.
With no cut in play, expect plenty in the talented field to be in contention deep into the weekend on a course that rewards patience and accuracy.
2026 RBC Heritage preview
- Date: April 16-19, 2026
- Location: Hilton Head, SC
- Course: Harbour Town Golf Links
- Par: 71 / 7,213 yards
- Purse: $20,000,000
- 2025 winner: Justin Thomas (-17, playoff)
Based on data from the Dimers golf model, below are the five most likely winners of this week's RBC Heritage tournament.
Who will win the 2026 RBC Heritage?
Our win predictions are the result of simulating the tournament over 10,000 times via our AI models, as well as each golfer's odds to finish Top 5, 10 and 20:
| Golfer | Win% | Top 5% | Top 10% | Top 20 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1. Scottie Scheffler | 20.1% | 50.6% | 66.4% | 82.5% |
| 2. Cameron Young | 6.6% | 26.2% | 42.7% | 63.6% |
| 3. Xander Schauffele | 5.6% | 22.8% | 37.8% | 58.9% |
| 4. Tommy Fleetwood | 5.5% | 21.7% | 37.1% | 56.9% |
| 5. Matt Fitzpatrick | 4.9% | 20.9% | 35.2% | 56.1% |
For each tournament, we look at the golfers our model has identified with a higher probability to win than what is implied by the sportsbook odds.
We'll also highlight any standout prop and placement bets for other golfers if we find any appealing value hidden in the Dimers golf predictions.
To get the most out of this week's PGA TOUR event, check out Dimers' full tournament predictions and compare with course history and other analytics to find an edge.
Dimers' boosted pick: Victor Hovland to win (boosted to +4000 on bet365)
Win probability: 2.4%
Dimers' fair odds: +4060 and above
Victor Hovland's profile fits Harbour Town well, and these boosted odds makes him well worth a look this week, with a 2.4% Dimers win probability putting him right on the Top 10 bubble.
His ball-striking has always been sound, but the knock on Hovland has historically been his short game, a weakness that appears largely corrected in 2026, giving him a much more complete arsenal. He's been poor off thee this year, but largely due to distance, which matters little here.
He's posted three top-20 finishes in his last four starts, and his course history is trending the right direction with a T13 last year serving as his best result to date at Harbour Town.
His main blemish is a below-average performance on par 4s and 5s, but if he can utilize his sharp approach play and solid scrambling on those holes, he'll find himself in the mix come Sunday.
Our boosted odds on Viktor Hovland at bet365, odds subject to change.
RBC Heritage best bets and longshot picks
Cameron Young to win (+1800 at DraftKings)
Win probability: 6.6%
Dimers' fair odds: +1415 and above
Cameron Young arrives at Harbour Town as perhaps the hottest golfer in the field and one of the most well-rounded players in the world right now.
His 6.6% win probability is second in the whole field, behind only Scottie Scheffler.
After a slowish start to 2026, he's been nearly unstoppable, winning THE PLAYERS Championship and posting nothing worse than a T7 in four starts, including a share of the 54-hole lead at the Masters before settling for T3.
His course history is a bit of a mixed bag after a promising T3 debut in 2022, with three finishes outside the top 50 since, but his current form is so overwhelming it's difficult to hold that against him. With metrics that check nearly every box, Young enters the week as one of the most legitimate win candidates in the field and Dimers' top overall value play.
Akshay Bhatia (+6000 at DraftKings)
Win probability: 3.3%
Dimers' fair odds: +2930 and above
Akshay Bhatia is a boom-or-bust dart throw at a price that makes the risk worthwhile according to the Dimers model.
The lefty secured win at the last Signature Event, the Arnold Palmer Invitational, and followed it with a T13 at THE PLAYERS, but back-to-back missed cuts overseas and at the Masters muddy his form heading into Hilton Head.
His best showing at Harbour Town is a T18 in 2024, and he'll need to unlock the explosive scoring version of himself that also produced a T3 at the WM Phoenix Open this season, and led after three rounds at Pebble Beach before settling for a T6.
Encouragingly, his analytics profile is strong across the board: top 10 in SG: Total, approach, and putting, with a top-20 scrambling ranking.
With no cut to survive, he's guaranteed all four rounds and at a 3.3% win probability, you can get him more than double his fair odds.
RBC Heritage longshot bets
Beyond the Dimers model favorites, several golfers have an outright edge at odds of more than 50/1, setting up longshot bets for winners or Top 20 placements at good plus-money value.
Nicolai Hojgaard to win (+10000 at FanDuel)
Win probability: 1.8%
Dimers' fair odds: +5455 and above
At 100/1 odds, Nicolai Hojgaard represents the most glaring value discrepancy on the board this week according to Dimers' model.
Despite some up and down results, his 2026 season includes a solo 2nd, a T3, a T6, and two other top-25 finishes across just eight events, a track record that is putting a spotlight on an impending breakout.
He ranks inside the top 10 in SG: Total and 12th in approach, which is precisely the skill set that separates contenders from the rest at Harbour Town.
Hojgaard's primary weakness is tee-to-fairway accuracy, a stat that carries far less weight here than virtually anywhere else on TOUR.
The only unknown is a lack of course history, as this marks his Harbour Town debut, but with a massive edge in implied probability versus the posted number, he's worth a sprinkle.
Last week, Dimers had Sam Burns at a similar probability and 100/1 odds, ultimately finishing T7 at the Masters.
Dimers' golf resources for 2026 PGA TOUR
As well as being your best source for PGA golf predictions, Dimers Pros also have access to the latest golf news, golf predictions for every game, weekly golf rankings, and golf matchup H2H tool.
- PGA Predictions: Our data-backed predictions for every tournament, including every major.
- Head-to-Head Predictor: Simulate any H2H tournament matchup between golfers
- Dimers' PGA Rankings: Our in-house approach to ranking the World's best golfers
- PGA Betting News: The latest promos, storylines and more around the PGA TOUR
The Dimers Pro golf predictions ended last season on an elite run, headlined by Tommy Fleetwood's first win at the TOUR Championship.
This season, we've accurately identified the live value on Justin Rose to win the Farmers Insurance Open at +500 and big edges on Tommy Fleetwood at Pebble Beach and our boosted pick of Cameron Young to win THE PLAYERS as standout winners of the year.
Dimers and responsible gambling
Please remember to enjoy gambling responsibly. Responsible gambling means setting limits, staying in control, and understanding that luck is just part of the game. Make informed choices, set a budget, and know when to take a break. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, crisis counseling and referral services can be accessed by calling 1-800-GAMBLER.
To give you the most accurate and helpful information, this article has been reviewed and edited by Nick Slade through our fact-checking process.
Dave Garofolo uses sophisticated AI-driven analytics to make predictions and evaluate player performances in the NBA, MLB, NFL, NHL, NCAAM, and PGA TOUR tournaments, crafting insightful game and prop previews.
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