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Golf parlay picks: Akshay Bhatia favored in head-to-head matchup at RBC Heritage
Updated: | First published:
Written by Dave Garofolo, Content Producer
Reviewed by Nick Slade
After cashing last week's head-to-head golf parlay, we're back with three golfers our model favors to win their matchup at the RBC Heritage, with a parlay at +600 odds.
As we prepare for the latest golf betting action to tee off on Thursday, April 16 for the RBC Heritage at Harbour Town Golf Links, Dimers has you covered with our best golf bets, full golf predictions and outright picks for who will win the latest PGA YOUR event.
Outright winners and Top-5, Top-10 and Top-20 markets typically draw the most attention, but head-to-head matchups can be just as profitable as you are narrowing down the field of competition to just a handful of golfers.
To make this market easier, Dimers uses an in-house head-to-head golf simulation tool that pits any two golfers directly against each other and projects who will finish higher, whether for Round 1 or across the full 72 holes for every tournament on the PGA TOUR.
RBC Heritage golf parlay picks at +600 odds
To make this parlay, we'll be using the Head-to-Head matchups available at DraftKings Sportsbook. We'll enter both golfers into our H2H Predictor, select the Tournament-long option, and see which golfer gets the advantage for the weekend.
With a handy "Fair Odds" to "Percentages" toggle, you can always check to see if there's value in any given matchup, and with a Dimers Pro subscription, you can simulate unlimited matchups for every tournament.
Leg 1: Akshay Bhatia to beat Alex Noren (-108)
In our first matchup, we're looking at two golfers in a matchup our model outright says the wrong one is favored, and a deeper look at the data backs it up.
Akshay Bhatia is coming off a missed cut at the Masters while Alex Noren put together a respectable T30. However, our model gives Bhatia 52.4% probability to win this matchup, despite Noren being priced as the favorite at -122. Even factoring in the probability for a tie, Noren doesn't come close to his fair odds of +110.
Bhatia's results this year also paint the picture of a disrespected golfer - in between his season-opening pair of cuts and the Masters cut, he never finished worse than T16, with three Top 10s and a win. Noren has one finish inside the Top 20
Except for a slight advantage around the green, Bhatia also edges out Noren in every statistical metric, especially on approach, which is paramount at Harbour Town, with all signs pointing to a bounce back for the lefty.
Dimers' predictions for Akshay Bhatia vs. Alex Noren.
Leg 2: Jake Knapp to beat Maverick McNealy (-114)
Our second matchup is one that the books have effectively dead even, as Jake Knapp gets the probability advantage over Maverick McNealy at Harbour Town.
Knapp's 52.1% probability to win puts him right around fair odds by our model, but McNealy should be plus money based on his sub-50% chance, despite sitting at almost an identical price of -116.
Knapp is having an elite year, with just three finishes outside the Top 10 through 8 events. Two of those are 11th place finishes, with the other an uncharacteristic missed cut at THE PLAYERS. McNealy has cracked the Top 10 once, back in January. He's not been bad, but has more finishes outside the Top 20 than within and his best four-round finish is one place better than Knapp's worst.
Their analytical comparison is fairly even, but Knapp's got an edge in key categories like Approach and most of all, scoring.
McNealy has the course history advantage - five appearances with a T3 and T4, also with a T58 and a missed cut, while Knapp made one appearance in 2024, finishing with a T62.
But golf tournaments aren't played out form past results, and with a Top 10 probability to win the tournament, Knapp is the clear pick according to the data this week.
Jake Knapp vs. Maverick McNealy at the RBC Heritage
Leg 3: Ryo Hisatsune to beat J.T. Poston (-110)
We round out the picks with our highest probability of the three, also the matchup between two golfers in a lower tier.
Both Rya Hisatsune and J.T. Poston project outside our Top 30 win probabilities for the tournament, with similar projections at 0.7% and 0.6% respectively.
But, a closer look at their full projections reveal a wider gap. As you move up the placement markets, Hisatsune's advantage becomes clearer, with a 6% chance greater to finish inside the Top 20, and a 53.1% probability to win the matchup outright.
The 23-year old has four Top 10s in 10 events this year, missing the cut in his first outing and then never finishing outside the Top 45, six times inside the Top 30. Poston has one such finish this year - not inside the Top 10, but inside the Top 30, a T21 at the Valero Texas Open.
Since The American Express in January, Hisatsune has won six straight H2H matchups with Poston.
One thing to note is Poston's history at Harbour Town. He's been greatm with four Top 10s and a T11 in 7 tries. He does have two missed cuts though, so he's not immune to errors. Hisatsune debuted with a T18 here in 2025.
Statistically, Hisatsune dwarfs Poston, who ranks below field average in nearly every metric. Alongside recent results and the Dimers data, we're backing the golfer in breakout form.
Outlook for Ryo Hisatsune vs. J.T. Poston this week.
+600 RBC Heritage golf parlay picks
To round up our parlay, we have these three matchups below, with our selected golfer predicted to win over the course of 72 holes, at odds of +600 on DraftKings Sportsbook:
| Tournament Matchup | Win % | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Akshay Bhatia to beat Alex Noren | 52.4% | -108 |
| Jake Knapp to beat Maverick McNealy | 52.1% | -114 |
| Ryo Hisatsune to beat J.T. Poston | 53.1% | -110 |
Dimers' Expert Golf Picks and Predictions for 2026 PGA TOUR
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- PGA Predictions: Our data-backed predictions for every tournament, including The Open and every major.
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To give you the most accurate and helpful information, this article has been reviewed and edited by Nick Slade through our fact-checking process.
Dave Garofolo uses sophisticated AI-driven analytics to make predictions and evaluate player performances in the NBA, MLB, NFL, NHL, NCAAM, and PGA TOUR tournaments, crafting insightful game and prop previews.
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