Thunder vs. Warriors Prediction, Picks and Odds

Our detailed prediction and analysis for the Thunder vs. Warriors NBA game on January 2, 2026 is featured below. Drawing from 10,000 game simulations, we provide expert picks, betting odds, and insights.
Hoops season sale: $30 off Dimers Pro passes. Limited time only.
FINAL
NBA
FINAL
NBA sport icon
NBA
Thunder
131
94
Chase Center
Warriors
Chase Center
TEAM1234T
Thunder
34 30 31 36 131
Warriors
23 22 20 29 94
Live Probabilities
Win %
  • Thunder
    100%
  • Warriors
    0%
Win Probability
TEAM1234T
Thunder
34 30 31 36 131
Warriors
23 22 20 29 94
Q4 00:26 Warriors makes two point jump shot
Q4 00:44 Chris Youngblood misses three point jump shot
Q4 00:51 Buddy Hield misses three point jump shot
Q4 1:00 Aaron Wiggins misses three point stepback jump shot
Q4 1:23 Chris Youngblood misses three point jump shot
Q4 1:35 Quinten Post makes two point jump shot (Trayce Jackson-Davis assists)
Q4 1:44 Chris Youngblood makes three point jump shot
Q4 1:55 Buddy Hield makes three point jump shot
Q4 2:06 Thunder makes two point jump shot
Q4 2:25 Warriors misses three point jump shot
Play by Play
  1. Q4 00:00
    End of 4th Quarter.
  2. Q4 00:00
    Instant replay (Request: Ruling Upheld)
  3. Q4 00:00
    Instant replay (Request: Ruling Upheld)
  4. Q4 00:02
    Thunder turnover
  5. Q4 00:26
    +2
    Warriors makes two point jump shot
    131-94
  6. Q4 00:41
    Gui Santos defensive rebound
  7. Q4 00:44
    Chris Youngblood misses three point jump shot
  8. Q4 00:47
    Branden Carlson defensive rebound
  9. Q4 00:51
    Buddy Hield misses three point jump shot
  10. Q4 00:57
    Quinten Post defensive rebound
  11. Q4 1:00
    Aaron Wiggins misses three point stepback jump shot
  12. Q4 1:13
    Warriors turnover
  13. Q4 1:21
    Gui Santos defensive rebound
  14. Q4 1:23
    Chris Youngblood misses three point jump shot
  15. Q4 1:35
    +2
    Quinten Post makes two point jump shot (Trayce Jackson-Davis assists)
    131-92
  16. Q4 1:44
    +3
    Chris Youngblood makes three point jump shot
    131-94
  17. Q4 1:55
    +3
    Buddy Hield makes three point jump shot
    131-94
  18. Q4 2:06
    +2
    Thunder makes two point jump shot
    131-94
  19. Q4 2:22
    Kenrich Williams defensive rebound
  20. Q4 2:25
    Warriors misses three point jump shot
  21. Q4 2:38
    +1
    Aaron Wiggins makes regular free throw 2 of 2
    124-87
  22. Q4 2:38
    Quinten Post shooting foul (Aaron Wiggins draws the foul)
  23. Q4 2:38
    +1
    Aaron Wiggins makes regular free throw 1 of 2
    131-94
  24. Q4 2:38
    Thunder 60 second timeout
  25. Q4 2:45
    Gui Santos turnover
  26. Q4 3:03
    +3
    Thunder makes three point jump shot
    131-94
  27. Q4 3:05
    Chris Youngblood offensive rebound
  28. Q4 3:07
    Thunder misses three point jump shot
  29. Q4 3:21
    +3
    Quinten Post makes three point jump shot (Pat Spencer assists)
    121-87
  30. Q4 3:36
    +3
    Thunder makes three point jump shot
    131-94
  31. Q4 3:50
    Gui Santos turnover (out of bounds bad pass)
  32. Q4 3:55
    Gui Santos defensive rebound
  33. Q4 3:57
    Thunder misses two point jump shot
  34. Q4 4:07
    +1
    Trayce Jackson-Davis makes regular free throw 1 of 2
    116-82
  35. Q4 4:07
    Aaron Wiggins personal foul
  36. Q4 4:07
    +1
    Trayce Jackson-Davis makes regular free throw 2 of 2
    131-94
  37. Q4 4:20
    Warriors lineup change (Quinten Post, Gui Santos, Pat Spencer, Buddy Hield, Trayce Jackson-Davis)
  38. Q4 4:20
    Thunder defensive rebound
  39. Q4 4:20
    Stoppage (Out of bounds)
  40. Q4 4:23
    Gary Payton II misses three point jump shot
  41. Q4 4:37
    +2
    Thunder makes two point jump shot
    121-87
  42. Q4 4:55
    +3
    Pat Spencer makes three point jump shot
    116-82
  43. Q4 5:14
    +3
    Chris Youngblood makes three point jump shot
    131-94
  44. Q4 5:19
    Branden Carlson defensive rebound
  45. Q4 5:22
    Warriors misses three point jump shot
  46. Q4 5:35
    Buddy Hield defensive rebound
  47. Q4 5:38
    Thunder misses three point jump shot
  48. Q4 5:51
    Moses Moody personal foul (Ajay Mitchell draws the foul)
  49. Q4 5:51
    Warriors lineup change (Quinten Post, Pat Spencer, Buddy Hield, Gary Payton II, Trayce Jackson-Davis)
  50. Q4 5:51
    Thunder lineup change (Kenrich Williams, Aaron Wiggins, Isaiah Joe, Chris Youngblood, Branden Carlson)
  51. Q4 5:51
    Warriors lineup change (Moses Moody, Quinten Post, Pat Spencer, Buddy Hield, Gary Payton II)
  52. Q4 6:03
    +3
    Warriors makes three point jump shot
    131-94
  53. Q4 6:18
    +3
    Chris Youngblood makes three point jump shot
    113-76
  54. Q4 6:27
    Kenrich Williams defensive rebound
  55. Q4 6:30
    Pat Spencer misses three point jump shot
  56. Q4 6:37
    Al Horford defensive rebound
  57. Q4 6:41
    Chris Youngblood misses three point jump shot
  58. Q4 6:50
    Branden Carlson defensive rebound
  59. Q4 6:53
    Warriors misses two point jump shot
  60. Q4 6:58
    Pat Spencer offensive rebound
  61. Q4 7:02
    Warriors misses three point jump shot
  62. Q4 7:19
    Pat Spencer defensive rebound
  63. Q4 7:22
    Thunder misses three point jump shot
  64. Q4 7:40
    +3
    Buddy Hield makes three point jump shot (Pat Spencer assists)
    131-94
  65. Q4 7:45
    Thunder turnover
  66. Q4 7:58
    Warriors turnover
  67. Q4 8:23
    +2
    Branden Carlson makes two point jump shot
    131-94
  68. Q4 8:23
    Warriors 60 second timeout
  69. Q4 8:23
    Thunder lineup change (Kenrich Williams, Ajay Mitchell, Isaiah Joe, Chris Youngblood, Branden Carlson)
  70. Q4 8:23
    Warriors lineup change (Moses Moody, Pat Spencer, Buddy Hield, Gary Payton II, Al Horford)
  71. Q4 8:27
    Moses Moody turnover (lost ball) (Branden Carlson steals)
  72. Q4 8:45
    +2
    Thunder makes two point jump shot
    108-73
  73. Q4 8:55
    Kenrich Williams defensive rebound
  74. Q4 8:59
    Thunder personal foul
  75. Q4 8:59
    Warriors lineup change (Moses Moody, Pat Spencer, Will Richard, Gary Payton II, Al Horford)
  76. Q4 8:59
    Moses Moody misses regular free throw 1 of 1
  77. Q4 8:59
    +2
    Moses Moody makes two point driving layup (Pat Spencer assists)
    131-94
  78. Q4 9:17
    Warriors violation
  79. Q4 9:17
    +2
    Ajay Mitchell makes two point layup (Kenrich Williams assists)
    106-71
  80. Q4 9:34
    +2
    Moses Moody makes two point jump shot
    104-71
  81. Q4 9:46
    Pat Spencer offensive rebound
  82. Q4 9:49
    Gui Santos misses three point jump shot
  83. Q4 10:03
    +2
    Thunder makes two point jump shot
    104-69
  84. Q4 10:14
    Branden Carlson personal foul
  85. Q4 10:14
    +1
    Trayce Jackson-Davis makes regular free throw 2 of 2
    104-69
  86. Q4 10:14
    Instant replay
  87. Q4 10:14
    Trayce Jackson-Davis misses regular free throw 1 of 2
  88. Q4 10:14
    Warriors offensive rebound
  89. Q4 10:15
    Trayce Jackson-Davis offensive rebound
  90. Q4 10:18
    Warriors misses three point jump shot
  91. Q4 10:28
    Warriors personal foul
  92. Q4 10:28
    +1
    Branden Carlson makes regular free throw 1 of 2
    131-94
  93. Q4 10:28
    +1
    Branden Carlson makes regular free throw 2 of 2
    131-94
  94. Q4 10:32
    Isaiah Joe defensive rebound
  95. Q4 10:35
    Warriors misses three point jump shot
  96. Q4 10:49
    Branden Carlson offensive rebound
  97. Q4 10:49
    +2
    Thunder makes two point jump shot
    131-94
  98. Q4 10:53
    Thunder misses three point jump shot
  99. Q4 11:14
    +2
    Moses Moody makes two point jump shot (Pat Spencer assists)
    131-94
  100. Q4 11:23
    +3
    Thunder makes three point jump shot
    131-94
  101. Q4 11:31
    Warriors personal foul
  102. Q4 11:31
    Moses Moody turnover (offensive foul)
  103. Q4 11:39
    Moses Moody defensive rebound
  104. Q4 11:41
    Aaron Wiggins misses two point layup
  105. Q3 00:00
    Warriors offensive rebound
  106. Q3 00:00
    Thunder personal foul
  107. Q3 00:00
    Brandin Podziemski misses regular free throw 1 of 2
  108. Q3 00:00
    +1
    Brandin Podziemski makes regular free throw 2 of 2
    95-66
  109. Q3 00:00
    End of 3rd Quarter.
  110. Q4 12:00
    Warriors lineup change (Moses Moody, Gui Santos, Pat Spencer, Will Richard, Trayce Jackson-Davis)
  111. Q4 12:00
    Thunder lineup change (Kenrich Williams, Ajay Mitchell, Aaron Wiggins, Isaiah Joe, Branden Carlson)
  112. Q3 00:05
    Al Horford offensive rebound
  113. Q3 00:08
    Warriors misses two point jump shot
  114. Q3 00:27
    +2
    Thunder makes two point jump shot
    95-65
  115. Q3 00:42
    +3
    Warriors makes three point jump shot (Pat Spencer assists)
    93-65
  116. Q3 00:48
    Ajay Mitchell turnover
  117. Q3 00:58
    Thunder defensive rebound
  118. Q3 00:58
    Stoppage (Out of bounds)
  119. Q3 1:00
    Al Horford misses three point jump shot
  120. Q3 1:07
    Al Horford defensive rebound
  121. Q3 1:09
    Thunder misses three point jump shot
  122. Q3 1:20
    Luguentz Dort defensive rebound
  123. Q3 1:23
    Buddy Hield misses three point jump shot
  124. Q3 1:44
    +1
    Shai Gilgeous-Alexander makes regular free throw 1 of 2
    92-62
  125. Q3 1:44
    Buddy Hield shooting foul (Shai Gilgeous-Alexander draws the foul)
  126. Q3 1:44
    +1
    Shai Gilgeous-Alexander makes regular free throw 2 of 2
    131-94
  127. Q3 1:44
    Warriors lineup change (Gui Santos, Pat Spencer, Brandin Podziemski, Buddy Hield, Al Horford)
  128. Q3 1:57
    Buddy Hield turnover (out of bounds lost ball)
  129. Q3 1:57
    Thunder lineup change (Luguentz Dort, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Ajay Mitchell, Isaiah Joe, Branden Carlson)
  130. Q3 1:59
    Shai Gilgeous-Alexander turnover (Trayce Jackson-Davis steals)
  131. Q3 2:17
    +3
    Warriors makes three point jump shot
    131-94
  132. Q3 2:25
    +2
    Chet Holmgren makes two point jump shot
    93-62
  133. Q3 2:37
    +3
    Warriors makes three point jump shot
    91-62
  134. Q3 2:37
    Warriors turnover
  135. Q3 2:52
    +3
    Shai Gilgeous-Alexander makes three point pullup jump shot (Chet Holmgren assists)
    93-62
  136. Q3 3:00
    Stoppage (Out of bounds)
  137. Q3 3:00
    Thunder offensive rebound
  138. Q3 3:01
    Trayce Jackson-Davis blocks Shai Gilgeous-Alexander's two point jump shot
  139. Q3 3:13
    Chet Holmgren defensive rebound
  140. Q3 3:16
    Warriors misses two point jump shot
  141. Q3 3:30
    +2
    Shai Gilgeous-Alexander makes two point jump shot
    131-94
  142. Q3 3:39
    +2
    Warriors makes two point jump shot
    131-94
  143. Q3 3:57
    +3
    Aaron Wiggins makes three point jump shot
    131-94
  144. Q3 4:10
    Trayce Jackson-Davis offensive foul (Luguentz Dort draws the foul)
  145. Q3 4:10
    Trayce Jackson-Davis turnover (offensive foul)
  146. Q3 4:18
    Instant replay (Challenge)
  147. Q3 4:18
    Stoppage (Out of bounds)
  148. Q3 4:18
    Warriors 60 second timeout
  149. Q3 4:18
    Chet Holmgren turnover (out of bounds lost ball)
  150. Q3 4:18
    Warriors lineup change (Pat Spencer, Brandin Podziemski, Buddy Hield, Trayce Jackson-Davis, Al Horford)
  151. Q3 4:21
    Chet Holmgren defensive rebound
  152. Q3 4:23
    Warriors misses two point jump shot
  153. Q3 4:49
    +2
    Ajay Mitchell makes two point finger roll layup
    131-94
  154. Q3 5:00
    Pat Spencer personal foul (Chet Holmgren draws the foul)
  155. Q3 5:00
    Chet Holmgren defensive rebound
  156. Q3 5:01
    Chet Holmgren blocks Trayce Jackson-Davis's two point jump shot
  157. Q3 5:15
    Warriors lineup change (Pat Spencer, Will Richard, Buddy Hield, Gary Payton II, Trayce Jackson-Davis)
  158. Q3 5:15
    Aaron Wiggins turnover
  159. Q3 5:16
    Aaron Wiggins defensive rebound
  160. Q3 5:19
    Warriors misses two point jump shot
  161. Q3 5:20
    Will Richard offensive rebound
  162. Q3 5:23
    Warriors misses three point jump shot
  163. Q3 5:40
    +3
    Thunder makes three point jump shot
    131-94
  164. Q3 5:45
    Luguentz Dort defensive rebound
  165. Q3 5:49
    Will Richard misses three point jump shot
  166. Q3 6:02
    +2
    Thunder makes two point jump shot
    131-94
  167. Q3 6:07
    Warriors turnover
  168. Q3 6:20
    Trayce Jackson-Davis defensive rebound
  169. Q3 6:24
    Thunder misses three point jump shot
  170. Q3 6:39
    Thunder personal foul
  171. Q3 6:39
    Trayce Jackson-Davis offensive rebound
  172. Q3 6:39
    +1
    Trayce Jackson-Davis makes regular free throw 1 of 2
    131-94
  173. Q3 6:39
    +1
    Trayce Jackson-Davis makes regular free throw 2 of 2
    131-94
  174. Q3 6:39
    Thunder lineup change (Luguentz Dort, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Ajay Mitchell, Aaron Wiggins, Chet Holmgren)
  175. Q3 6:39
    Warriors 60 second timeout
  176. Q3 6:41
    Gary Payton II misses two point driving floating jump shot
  177. Q3 7:03
    Moses Moody personal foul (Shai Gilgeous-Alexander draws the foul)
  178. Q3 7:03
    Warriors lineup change (Moses Moody, Pat Spencer, Will Richard, Gary Payton II, Trayce Jackson-Davis)
  179. Q3 7:03
    +1
    Shai Gilgeous-Alexander makes regular free throw 2 of 2
    95-65
  180. Q3 7:03
    +1
    Shai Gilgeous-Alexander makes regular free throw 1 of 2
    131-94
  181. Q3 7:06
    Jalen Williams defensive rebound
  182. Q3 7:08
    Will Richard misses two point turnaround jump shot
  183. Q3 7:09
    Will Richard offensive rebound
  184. Q3 7:13
    Aaron Wiggins blocks Will Richard's two point jump shot
  185. Q3 7:21
    Gui Santos defensive rebound
  186. Q3 7:24
    Thunder misses three point jump shot
  187. Q3 7:37
    Aaron Wiggins defensive rebound
  188. Q3 7:39
    Warriors misses three point jump shot
  189. Q3 8:01
    +2
    Thunder makes two point jump shot
    72-52
  190. Q3 8:10
    +2
    Warriors makes two point jump shot
    131-94
  191. Q3 8:21
    Thunder personal foul
  192. Q3 8:29
    Luguentz Dort personal foul (Gui Santos draws the foul)
  193. Q3 8:38
    Gui Santos defensive rebound
  194. Q3 8:41
    Thunder misses two point jump shot
  195. Q3 8:50
    Chet Holmgren defensive rebound
  196. Q3 8:52
    Brandin Podziemski misses two point jump shot
  197. Q3 9:02
    +2
    Thunder makes two point jump shot
    131-94
  198. Q3 9:09
    Chet Holmgren defensive rebound
  199. Q3 9:11
    Will Richard misses two point floating jump shot
  200. Q3 9:19
    Will Richard defensive rebound
  201. Q3 9:20
    Thunder misses two point jump shot
  202. Q3 9:34
    Chet Holmgren defensive rebound
  203. Q3 9:37
    Quinten Post misses three point jump shot
  204. Q3 9:46
    Thunder turnover
  205. Q3 9:57
    Quinten Post offensive rebound
  206. Q3 9:57
    +2
    Quinten Post makes two point jump shot
    131-94
  207. Q3 10:00
    Quinten Post misses two point layup
  208. Q3 10:05
    Aaron Wiggins turnover (Brandin Podziemski steals)
  209. Q3 10:11
    Warriors personal foul
  210. Q3 10:11
    Quinten Post turnover (offensive foul)
  211. Q3 10:25
    Instant replay
  212. Q3 10:25
    +1
    Chet Holmgren makes regular free throw 1 of 2
    93-62
  213. Q3 10:25
    Quinten Post personal foul (Chet Holmgren draws the foul)
  214. Q3 10:25
    +1
    Chet Holmgren makes regular free throw 2 of 2
    131-94
  215. Q3 10:39
    +2
    Moses Moody makes two point jump shot (Quinten Post assists)
    66-48
  216. Q3 10:48
    Gui Santos defensive rebound
  217. Q3 10:52
    Thunder misses three point jump shot
  218. Q3 11:04
    Brandin Podziemski turnover
  219. Q3 11:18
    +2
    Thunder makes two point jump shot
    131-94
  220. Q3 11:32
    Quinten Post personal foul
  221. Q3 11:40
    Thunder personal foul
  222. Q3 11:40
    Gui Santos misses regular free throw 1 of 2
  223. Q3 11:40
    Warriors offensive rebound
  224. Q3 11:40
    +1
    Gui Santos makes regular free throw 2 of 2
    131-94
  225. Q2 00:00
    Instant replay (Request: Ruling Upheld)
  226. Q2 00:00
    End of 1st Half.
  227. Q3 12:00
    Warriors lineup change (Moses Moody, Quinten Post, Gui Santos, Brandin Podziemski, Will Richard)
  228. Q3 12:00
    Thunder lineup change (Jalen Williams, Luguentz Dort, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Aaron Wiggins, Chet Holmgren)
  229. Q2 00:01
    +3
    Luguentz Dort makes three point jump shot (Ajay Mitchell assists)
    64-45
  230. Q2 00:08
    Warriors lineup change (Moses Moody, Gui Santos, Will Richard, Gary Payton II, Trayce Jackson-Davis)
  231. Q2 00:08
    Brandin Podziemski personal foul (Shai Gilgeous-Alexander draws the foul)
  232. Q2 00:08
    Thunder lineup change (Luguentz Dort, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Ajay Mitchell, Aaron Wiggins, Alex Caruso)
  233. Q2 00:15
    Branden Carlson defensive rebound
  234. Q2 00:19
    Brandin Podziemski misses three point jump shot
  235. Q2 00:39
    Jalen Williams turnover (offensive foul)
  236. Q2 00:39
    Jalen Williams offensive foul (Charge) (Brandin Podziemski draws the foul)
  237. Q2 00:39
    Thunder lineup change (Luguentz Dort, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Ajay Mitchell, Alex Caruso, Branden Carlson)
  238. Q2 00:57
    +3
    Moses Moody makes three point jump shot (Brandin Podziemski assists)
    61-45
  239. Q2 00:58
    Stoppage (Out of bounds)
  240. Q2 1:16
    +2
    Shai Gilgeous-Alexander makes two point jump shot (Branden Carlson assists)
    61-42
  241. Q2 1:18
    Branden Carlson offensive rebound
  242. Q2 1:22
    Shai Gilgeous-Alexander misses two point jump shot
  243. Q2 1:22
    +2
    Thunder makes two point jump shot
    131-94
  244. Q2 1:31
    Thunder lineup change (Jalen Williams, Luguentz Dort, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Cason Wallace, Branden Carlson)
  245. Q2 1:31
    +1
    Will Richard makes regular free throw 1 of 1
    59-42
  246. Q2 1:31
    Shai Gilgeous-Alexander shooting foul (Will Richard draws the foul)
  247. Q2 1:31
    Warriors lineup change (Moses Moody, Quinten Post, Gui Santos, Brandin Podziemski, Will Richard)
  248. Q2 1:31
    +2
    Will Richard makes two point floating jump shot
    59-41
  249. Q2 1:42
    Al Horford defensive rebound
  250. Q2 1:44
    Shai Gilgeous-Alexander misses two point jump shot
  251. Q2 2:02
    +2
    Will Richard makes two point cutting layup (Brandin Podziemski assists)
    59-39
  252. Q2 2:23
    +2
    Cason Wallace makes two point driving layup (Shai Gilgeous-Alexander assists)
    59-37
  253. Q2 2:35
    Branden Carlson defensive rebound
  254. Q2 2:37
    Alex Caruso shooting foul (Gui Santos draws the foul)
  255. Q2 2:37
    Gui Santos misses regular free throw 2 of 2
  256. Q2 2:37
    +1
    Gui Santos makes regular free throw 1 of 2
    57-37
  257. Q2 10:16
    Chet Holmgren defensive rebound
  258. Q2 10:23
    Warriors misses two point jump shot
  259. Q2 10:23
    Warriors turnover
  260. Q1 9:42
    Warriors turnover
Box Score
Thunder
PosPlayerPts
Warriors
PosPlayerPts

Thunder vs. Warriors: Detailed Breakdown

Matchup Overview

  • Teams: Thunder vs. Warriors
  • Date: Friday, January 2, 2026
  • Time: 10:00 PM ET
  • Venue: Chase Center

Current Betting Odds

  • Spread: Thunder favored at -13.5
  • Total (Over/Under): 225.5
  • Moneyline Odds: Thunder -700, Warriors +560

Dimers' Win Probabilities

  • Thunder: 84%
  • Warriors: 16%

Dimers' predictive model, renowned for its accuracy, assesses each team's chances by simulating the outcome of the game 10,000 times. This method provides a precise and unbiased view.

Projected Final Score

Our predicted final score for this NBA matchup is Thunder 119-107 Warriors.

This prediction is based on each team's average score following 10,000 game simulations.

Our Prediction: Who Wins?

After extensive simulations, our model gives the Thunder a win probability of 84%, while the Warriors have a win probability of 16%. Discover the best spread, over/under, and moneyline odds for the game on this page.

Summary

According to our analysis, the Thunder are more likely to beat the Warriors in the NBA game at Chase Center on Saturday. Discover the best spread, over/under and moneyline odds, picks and probabilities for the game on this page.

Our Thunder vs. Warriors predictions, based on sophisticated simulations and current data, guide you in making informed decisions. Remember to bet responsibly and within your financial limits.

For additional resources and advice on responsible gambling, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.

When you click or tap on a link on Dimers that goes to a third-party website that we have a commercial relationship with (such as a sportsbook), we may receive a referral fee.

For further insights, explore our expert NBA predictions and the best NBA bets today, while our in-depth analysis includes NBA props, NBA futures, NBA odds, and the latest NBA news.