Heat vs. Rockets Prediction, Picks and Odds
Our detailed prediction and analysis for the Heat vs. Rockets NBA game on March 21, 2026 is featured below. Drawing from 10,000 game simulations, we provide expert picks, betting odds, and insights.
FINAL
NBA
FINAL
NBA
Heat
122
123
Toyota Center
Rockets
Toyota Center
| TEAM | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Heat | 29 | 34 | 59 | 0 | 122 |
Rockets | 32 | 32 | 59 | 0 | 123 |
Live Probabilities
Spread
Over / Under
Moneyline
- Heat
- Rockets
Win Probability
| TEAM | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Heat | 29 | 34 | 59 | 0 | 122 |
Rockets | 32 | 32 | 59 | 0 | 123 |
Q4 00:00 Amen Thompson makes two point jump shot
Q4 00:02 Kevin Durant misses two point pullup jump shot
Q4 00:04 Heat makes two point jump shot
Q4 00:12 Rockets makes two point jump shot
Q4 00:46 Pelle Larsson makes two point jump shot
Q4 1:14 Simone Fontecchio makes three point jump shot (Davion Mitchell assists)
Q4 1:23 Reed Sheppard misses three point jump shot
Q4 1:39 Bam Adebayo misses two point pullup jump shot
Q4 1:45 Tyler Herro misses two point jump shot
Q4 2:20 Heat misses three point jump shot
Play by Play
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
ALL
- Amen Thompson offensive rebound
- Instant replay (Request: Ruling Upheld)
- +2Amen Thompson makes two point jump shot122-123
- End of 4th Quarter.
- Kevin Durant misses two point pullup jump shot
- +2Heat makes two point jump shot119-121
- Jabari Smith Jr. defensive goaltending violation
- Instant replay (Request: Ruling Upheld)
- Heat lineup change (Pelle Larsson, Bam Adebayo, Tyler Herro, Simone Fontecchio, Kel'el Ware)
- Rockets 60 second timeout
- Rockets lineup change (Kevin Durant, Amen Thompson, Alperen Sengun, Reed Sheppard, Jabari Smith Jr.)
- Tari Eason turnover (bad pass) (Davion Mitchell steals)
- Rockets lineup change (Kevin Durant, Amen Thompson, Alperen Sengun, Jabari Smith Jr., Tari Eason)
- Rockets lineup change (Kevin Durant, Amen Thompson, Reed Sheppard, Jabari Smith Jr., Tari Eason)
- Rockets lineup change (Kevin Durant, Amen Thompson, Reed Sheppard, Jabari Smith Jr., Tari Eason)
- +1Bam Adebayo makes regular free throw 2 of 2122-123
- Rockets personal foul
- +1Bam Adebayo makes regular free throw 1 of 2122-123
- Stoppage (Out of bounds)
- Rockets lineup change (Kevin Durant, Amen Thompson, Reed Sheppard, Jabari Smith Jr., Tari Eason)
- Rockets lineup change (Kevin Durant, Amen Thompson, Josh Okogie, Jabari Smith Jr., Aaron Holiday)
- +2Rockets makes two point jump shot122-123
- Heat 60 second timeout
- Bam Adebayo kicked ball violation
- +2Pelle Larsson makes two point jump shot118-119
- Amen Thompson turnover
- +3Simone Fontecchio makes three point jump shot (Davion Mitchell assists)118-119
- Pelle Larsson defensive rebound
- Reed Sheppard misses three point jump shot
- Jabari Smith Jr. defensive rebound
- Bam Adebayo misses two point pullup jump shot
- Heat offensive rebound
- Stoppage (Out of bounds)
- Tyler Herro misses two point jump shot
- Reed Sheppard personal foul (Davion Mitchell draws the foul)
- Rockets turnover
- Reed Sheppard defensive rebound
- Heat misses three point jump shot
- Tyler Herro defensive rebound
- Amen Thompson misses two point tip layup
- Amen Thompson offensive rebound
- Alperen Sengun misses two point jump shot
- Amen Thompson defensive rebound
- Reed Sheppard personal foul (Bam Adebayo draws the foul)
- Bam Adebayo misses regular free throw 2 of 2
- +1Bam Adebayo makes regular free throw 1 of 2122-123
- Rockets lineup change (Kevin Durant, Amen Thompson, Alperen Sengun, Reed Sheppard, Jabari Smith Jr.)
- +2Alperen Sengun makes two point turnaround hook shot (Aaron Holiday assists)118-119
- +3Davion Mitchell makes three point jump shot (Tyler Herro assists)113-119
- +3Kevin Durant makes three point jump shot (Reed Sheppard assists)113-119
- Rockets defensive rebound
- Stoppage (Out of bounds)
- Reed Sheppard blocks Tyler Herro's three point pullup jump shot
- Pelle Larsson turnover (out of bounds lost ball)
- Tyler Herro defensive rebound
- Rockets misses three point jump shot
- Davion Mitchell turnover (Kevin Durant steals)
- Alperen Sengun offensive foul (Bam Adebayo draws the foul)
- Alperen Sengun turnover (offensive foul)
- Pelle Larsson personal foul (Alperen Sengun draws the foul)
- Alperen Sengun blocks Pelle Larsson's two point jump shot
- Pelle Larsson turnover (offensive foul)
- Instant replay (Request)
- Rockets lineup change (Kevin Durant, Alperen Sengun, Reed Sheppard, Jabari Smith Jr., Aaron Holiday)
- +3Rockets makes three point jump shot113-119
- +2Heat makes two point jump shot118-119
- Rockets violation
- +2Aaron Holiday makes two point jump shot113-119
- Amen Thompson defensive rebound
- +2Bam Adebayo makes two point jump shot (Davion Mitchell assists)113-119
- Rockets personal foul
- Bam Adebayo misses regular free throw 1 of 1
- Alperen Sengun turnover
- Alperen Sengun defensive rebound
- Heat misses three point jump shot
- Heat 60 second timeout
- Rockets lineup change (Kevin Durant, Amen Thompson, Alperen Sengun, Reed Sheppard, Aaron Holiday)
- +3Rockets makes three point jump shot118-119
- +3Simone Fontecchio makes three point jump shot105-106
- +3Aaron Holiday makes three point jump shot (Reed Sheppard assists)102-106
- Amen Thompson offensive rebound
- Jabari Smith Jr. misses three point jump shot
- Myron Gardner personal foul (Alperen Sengun draws the foul)
- Rockets defensive rebound
- Heat lineup change (Pelle Larsson, Davion Mitchell, Bam Adebayo, Tyler Herro, Simone Fontecchio)
- Davion Mitchell misses three point jump shot
- +2Rockets makes two point jump shot105-106
- Alperen Sengun defensive rebound
- Davion Mitchell misses two point jump shot
- Davion Mitchell defensive rebound
- Jabari Smith Jr. misses two point jump shot
- Alperen Sengun defensive rebound
- Tyler Herro misses three point pullup jump shot
- +3Reed Sheppard makes three point jump shot (Jabari Smith Jr. assists)105-106
- Amen Thompson defensive rebound
- Heat misses two point jump shot
- +3Jabari Smith Jr. makes three point running jump shot (Aaron Holiday assists)105-106
- Heat 60 second timeout
- Heat lineup change (Myron Gardner, Pelle Larsson, Davion Mitchell, Bam Adebayo, Tyler Herro)
- Myron Gardner turnover
- +3Jabari Smith Jr. makes three point jump shot (Reed Sheppard assists)102-95
- Heat violation
- Rockets lineup change (Amen Thompson, Alperen Sengun, Reed Sheppard, Jabari Smith Jr., Aaron Holiday)
- Amen Thompson defensive rebound
- Heat misses two point jump shot
- Heat personal foul
- Josh Okogie misses regular free throw 1 of 2
- Rockets offensive rebound
- +1Josh Okogie makes regular free throw 2 of 2122-123
- +2Heat makes two point jump shot102-91
- +2Amen Thompson makes two point driving layup (Alperen Sengun assists)105-106
- +2Bam Adebayo makes two point jump shot105-106
- +2Rockets makes two point jump shot105-106
- Rockets personal foul (Bam Adebayo draws the foul)
- +1Bam Adebayo makes regular free throw 1 of 2122-123
- +1Bam Adebayo makes regular free throw 2 of 2122-123
- Heat misses three point jump shot
- Heat offensive rebound
- End of 3rd Quarter.
- Bam Adebayo defensive rebound
- Rockets lineup change (Amen Thompson, Alperen Sengun, Josh Okogie, Jabari Smith Jr., Aaron Holiday)
- Heat lineup change (Myron Gardner, Pelle Larsson, Davion Mitchell, Bam Adebayo, Kasparas Jakucionis)
- Kevin Durant misses two point jump shot
- Amen Thompson offensive rebound
- Jabari Smith Jr. misses two point jump shot
- +2Tyler Herro makes two point jump shot (Kasparas Jakucionis assists)113-119
- Stoppage (Out of bounds)
- Rockets lineup change (Kevin Durant, Dorian Finney-Smith, Amen Thompson, Jabari Smith Jr., Tari Eason)
- Amen Thompson misses two point jump shot
- Bam Adebayo defensive rebound
- +3Heat makes three point jump shot122-123
- Bam Adebayo defensive rebound
- Rockets misses three point jump shot
- +3Tyler Herro makes three point jump shot105-106
- +2Amen Thompson makes two point jump shot105-106
- Amen Thompson offensive rebound
- Kevin Durant misses three point jump shot
- Heat personal foul
- Dorian Finney-Smith offensive rebound
- Amen Thompson misses two point jump shot
- Myron Gardner misses three point jump shot
- Kevin Durant defensive rebound
- Rockets lineup change (Kevin Durant, Dorian Finney-Smith, Jae'Sean Tate, Amen Thompson, Tari Eason)
- Heat 60 second timeout
- Heat lineup change (Myron Gardner, Bam Adebayo, Tyler Herro, Kasparas Jakucionis, Simone Fontecchio)
- Stoppage (Out of bounds)
- Kevin Durant turnover
- Tari Eason offensive rebound
- Rockets misses three point jump shot
- +3Myron Gardner makes three point jump shot88-85
- Tyler Herro defensive rebound
- Rockets misses three point jump shot
- Reed Sheppard defensive rebound
- Bam Adebayo misses two point tip layup
- Bam Adebayo offensive rebound
- Davion Mitchell misses three point jump shot
- Myron Gardner defensive rebound
- Rockets misses three point jump shot
- +2Tyler Herro makes two point floating jump shot (Myron Gardner assists)105-106
- Jae'Sean Tate personal foul
- Rockets personal foul
- Bam Adebayo offensive rebound
- Davion Mitchell misses three point jump shot
- Rockets personal foul
- Myron Gardner offensive rebound
- Heat misses two point jump shot
- Bam Adebayo defensive rebound
- Kevin Durant misses two point pullup jump shot
- Simone Fontecchio turnover
- +2Tari Eason makes two point jump shot (Jabari Smith Jr. assists)83-85
- Jabari Smith Jr. defensive rebound
- Davion Mitchell misses three point jump shot
- +3Rockets makes three point jump shot118-119
- Pelle Larsson personal foul (Jabari Smith Jr. draws the foul)
- Heat lineup change (Myron Gardner, Davion Mitchell, Bam Adebayo, Tyler Herro, Simone Fontecchio)
- Kevin Durant defensive rebound
- Heat misses two point jump shot
- Tari Eason misses two point jump shot
- Bam Adebayo defensive rebound
- Rockets lineup change (Kevin Durant, Jae'Sean Tate, Reed Sheppard, Jabari Smith Jr., Tari Eason)
- Heat lineup change (Myron Gardner, Pelle Larsson, Bam Adebayo, Tyler Herro, Simone Fontecchio)
- Rockets 60 second timeout
- +3Simone Fontecchio makes three point jump shot (Tyler Herro assists)105-106
- +2Alperen Sengun makes two point putback layup83-80
- Kevin Durant misses three point fadeaway jump shot
- Alperen Sengun offensive rebound
- +2Heat makes two point jump shot105-106
- Stoppage (Equipment malfunction)
- +2Rockets makes two point jump shot118-119
- +3Tyler Herro makes three point jump shot118-119
- Alperen Sengun turnover
- +2Heat makes two point jump shot70-74
- Reed Sheppard shooting foul (Pelle Larsson draws the foul)
- +1Pelle Larsson makes regular free throw 1 of 1118-119
- +2Alperen Sengun makes two point jump shot (Reed Sheppard assists)105-106
- +2Tyler Herro makes two point jump shot105-106
- +2Rockets makes two point jump shot70-74
- Alperen Sengun defensive rebound
- Heat misses two point jump shot
- Bam Adebayo defensive rebound
- Kevin Durant misses three point jump shot
- Bam Adebayo personal foul (Alperen Sengun draws the foul)
- Jabari Smith Jr. defensive rebound
- Bam Adebayo misses two point driving hook shot
- +3Rockets makes three point jump shot88-85
- +2Davion Mitchell makes two point driving finger roll layup70-69
- +2Alperen Sengun makes two point cutting layup (Reed Sheppard assists)70-74
- +3Bam Adebayo makes three point jump shot (Pelle Larsson assists)88-85
- Rockets turnover
- Amen Thompson defensive rebound
- Heat misses three point jump shot
- +3Kevin Durant makes three point jump shot (Reed Sheppard assists)70-74
- +2Tyler Herro makes two point jump shot65-64
- Tyler Herro defensive rebound
- Rockets misses two point jump shot
- Stoppage (Out of bounds)
- Stoppage (Out of bounds)
- End of 1st Half.
- Rockets lineup change (Kevin Durant, Dorian Finney-Smith, Amen Thompson, Reed Sheppard, Jabari Smith Jr.)
- Rockets lineup change (Kevin Durant, Amen Thompson, Alperen Sengun, Reed Sheppard, Jabari Smith Jr.)
- Heat lineup change (Pelle Larsson, Davion Mitchell, Bam Adebayo, Tyler Herro, Simone Fontecchio)
- +2Rockets makes two point jump shot63-64
- +3Heat makes three point jump shot63-64
- Davion Mitchell offensive rebound
- Heat misses three point jump shot
- Bam Adebayo defensive rebound
- Rockets misses two point jump shot
- +3Heat makes three point jump shot63-64
- +2Jabari Smith Jr. makes two point jump shot63-64
- +2Tyler Herro makes two point jump shot63-64
- +2Alperen Sengun makes two point turnaround hook shot (Reed Sheppard assists)63-64
- Jabari Smith Jr. offensive rebound
- Reed Sheppard misses three point jump shot
- Heat personal foul
- Rockets offensive rebound
- +1Alperen Sengun makes regular free throw 1 of 263-64
- Alperen Sengun misses regular free throw 2 of 2
- Heat lineup change (Davion Mitchell, Bam Adebayo, Tyler Herro, Kasparas Jakucionis, Simone Fontecchio)
- +2Heat makes two point jump shot63-64
- +2Rockets makes two point jump shot63-64
- +2Heat makes two point jump shot63-64
- Bam Adebayo offensive rebound
- Tyler Herro misses three point jump shot
- Rockets turnover
- Rockets lineup change (Kevin Durant, Amen Thompson, Alperen Sengun, Reed Sheppard, Jabari Smith Jr.)
- +2Heat makes two point jump shot63-64
- Rockets personal foul
- +1Bam Adebayo makes regular free throw 1 of 163-64
- Stoppage (Out of bounds)
- Heat 60 second timeout
- +3Rockets makes three point jump shot63-64
- Amen Thompson defensive rebound
- Heat misses three point jump shot
- +2Reed Sheppard makes two point jump shot55-58
- +2Heat makes two point jump shot63-64
- Stoppage (Out of bounds)
- Pelle Larsson personal foul
- +1Kevin Durant makes regular free throw 1 of 263-64
- +1Kevin Durant makes regular free throw 2 of 263-64
- Heat lineup change (Myron Gardner, Davion Mitchell, Bam Adebayo, Tyler Herro, Simone Fontecchio)
- Tari Eason defensive rebound
- Amen Thompson personal foul
- +1Pelle Larsson makes regular free throw 1 of 245-46
- Pelle Larsson misses regular free throw 2 of 2
- Heat offensive rebound
- Pelle Larsson misses two point driving layup
- Rockets lineup change (Kevin Durant, Dorian Finney-Smith, Amen Thompson, Reed Sheppard, Tari Eason)
- Stoppage (Out of bounds)
- +2Kevin Durant makes two point jump shot45-46
- +2Davion Mitchell makes two point driving layup45-46
- Bam Adebayo defensive rebound
- Myron Gardner personal foul (Dorian Finney-Smith draws the foul)
- +1Dorian Finney-Smith makes regular free throw 1 of 245-46
- Dorian Finney-Smith misses regular free throw 2 of 2
- Heat lineup change (Pelle Larsson, Davion Mitchell, Bam Adebayo, Tyler Herro, Simone Fontecchio)
- +2Heat makes two point jump shot45-46
- Bam Adebayo offensive rebound
- Tyler Herro misses two point pullup jump shot
- Myron Gardner personal foul (Reed Sheppard draws the foul)
- +1Reed Sheppard makes regular free throw 2 of 241-43
- Rockets lineup change (Kevin Durant, Dorian Finney-Smith, Reed Sheppard, Jabari Smith Jr., Tari Eason)
- +1Reed Sheppard makes regular free throw 1 of 245-46
- Alperen Sengun defensive rebound
- Tyler Herro misses two point driving floating jump shot
- Tyler Herro defensive rebound
- Rockets misses two point jump shot
- Heat personal foul
- Rockets 60 second timeout
- Rockets lineup change (Kevin Durant, Alperen Sengun, Reed Sheppard, Jabari Smith Jr., Tari Eason)
- Alperen Sengun defensive rebound
- Heat misses two point jump shot
- +2Alperen Sengun makes two point driving floating bank jump shot41-43
- Rockets personal foul
- +1Tyler Herro makes regular free throw 1 of 240-41
- +1Tyler Herro makes regular free throw 2 of 241-43
- Heat lineup change (Myron Gardner, Davion Mitchell, Bam Adebayo, Tyler Herro, Simone Fontecchio)
- Rockets misses two point jump shot
- Bam Adebayo defensive rebound
- Heat violation
- Rockets lineup change (Amen Thompson, Alperen Sengun, Reed Sheppard, Jabari Smith Jr., Tari Eason)
- Heat lineup change (Pelle Larsson, Davion Mitchell, Bam Adebayo, Tyler Herro, Simone Fontecchio)
- +2Pelle Larsson makes two point jump shot39-41
- Bam Adebayo defensive rebound
- Nikola Jovic personal foul
- +1Jabari Smith Jr. makes regular free throw 1 of 237-41
- Jabari Smith Jr. misses regular free throw 2 of 2
- Heat lineup change (Pelle Larsson, Davion Mitchell, Bam Adebayo, Kasparas Jakucionis, Simone Fontecchio)
- +2Heat makes two point jump shot37-40
- +2Alperen Sengun makes two point driving layup37-40
- Tari Eason defensive rebound
- Heat misses two point jump shot
- Heat offensive rebound
- Rockets personal foul
- Rockets lineup change (Amen Thompson, Alperen Sengun, Jabari Smith Jr., Aaron Holiday, Tari Eason)
- Heat lineup change (Nikola Jovic, Pelle Larsson, Davion Mitchell, Bam Adebayo, Kasparas Jakucionis)
- Heat misses three point jump shot
- Bam Adebayo defensive rebound
- Rockets misses three point jump shot
- Stoppage (Other)
- +3Heat makes three point jump shot35-38
- Bam Adebayo defensive rebound
- Rockets misses two point jump shot
- Alperen Sengun defensive rebound
- Heat misses two point jump shot
- +2Rockets makes two point jump shot32-37
- Heat personal foul
- +1Amen Thompson makes regular free throw 1 of 132-38
- Alperen Sengun defensive rebound
- Heat misses three point jump shot
- +3Rockets makes three point jump shot32-35
- Alperen Sengun defensive rebound
- Heat misses two point jump shot
- Bam Adebayo defensive rebound
- Rockets misses three point jump shot
- +3Heat makes three point jump shot32-32
- Bam Adebayo defensive rebound
- Rockets misses two point jump shot
- Heat violation
- Dorian Finney-Smith offensive rebound
- Rockets misses three point jump shot
- Reed Sheppard offensive rebound
- +2Rockets makes two point jump shot29-32
- Instant replay
- End of 1st Quarter.
- Heat lineup change (Nikola Jovic, Pelle Larsson, Bam Adebayo, Kasparas Jakucionis, Dru Smith)
- Rockets lineup change (Dorian Finney-Smith, Amen Thompson, Alperen Sengun, Jabari Smith Jr., Aaron Holiday)
- Rockets misses two point jump shot
- Amen Thompson defensive rebound
- Heat misses three point jump shot
- Stoppage (Out of bounds)
- Heat offensive rebound
- Jump ball. (Dru Smith gains possession)
- Jabari Smith Jr. shooting foul (Pelle Larsson draws the foul)
- Rockets 60 second timeout
- Instant replay
- Heat misses two point jump shot
- Rockets challenge timeout
- Heat personal foul
- +1Jabari Smith Jr. makes regular free throw 1 of 229-29
- +1Jabari Smith Jr. makes regular free throw 2 of 229-30
- Heat lineup change (Pelle Larsson, Bam Adebayo, Kasparas Jakucionis, Simone Fontecchio, Dru Smith)
- Jabari Smith Jr. defensive rebound
- Heat misses three point jump shot
- Heat personal foul
- +1Kevin Durant makes regular free throw 1 of 229-27
- +1Kevin Durant makes regular free throw 2 of 229-28
- Amen Thompson defensive rebound
- Heat misses two point jump shot
- Heat 60 second timeout
- Heat lineup change (Pelle Larsson, Bam Adebayo, Kasparas Jakucionis, Kel'el Ware, Dru Smith)
- Rockets lineup change (Kevin Durant, Dorian Finney-Smith, Amen Thompson, Reed Sheppard, Jabari Smith Jr.)
- +3Rockets makes three point jump shot29-26
- Heat turnover
- Rockets turnover
- Heat violation
- Heat lineup change (Myron Gardner, Bam Adebayo, Kasparas Jakucionis, Kel'el Ware, Dru Smith)
- +2Heat makes two point jump shot29-23
- +3Rockets makes three point jump shot27-23
- +2Heat makes two point jump shot27-20
- +3Rockets makes three point jump shot25-20
- +2Heat makes two point jump shot25-17
- +2Rockets makes two point jump shot23-17
- Amen Thompson defensive rebound
- Heat misses three point jump shot
- Stoppage (Out of bounds)
- +2Rockets makes two point jump shot23-15
- Amen Thompson defensive rebound
- Heat misses three point jump shot
- Rockets misses two point jump shot
- Heat personal foul
- +1Tari Eason makes regular free throw 1 of 223-12
- Rockets lineup change (Kevin Durant, Dorian Finney-Smith, Amen Thompson, Reed Sheppard, Tari Eason)
- Heat lineup change (Myron Gardner, Tyler Herro, Simone Fontecchio, Kel'el Ware, Dru Smith)
- +1Tari Eason makes regular free throw 2 of 223-13
- Reed Sheppard defensive rebound
- Heat misses three point jump shot
- Tyler Herro defensive rebound
- Rockets misses three point jump shot
- Heat turnover
- Kel'el Ware defensive rebound
- Rockets misses two point jump shot
- Stoppage (Out of bounds)
- +2Heat makes two point jump shot23-11
- Rockets 60 second timeout
- Heat lineup change (Myron Gardner, Davion Mitchell, Tyler Herro, Simone Fontecchio, Kel'el Ware)
- Rockets lineup change (Kevin Durant, Dorian Finney-Smith, Reed Sheppard, Jabari Smith Jr., Tari Eason)
- Rockets turnover
- +3Heat makes three point jump shot21-11
- Pelle Larsson offensive rebound
- Heat misses three point jump shot
- Bam Adebayo defensive rebound
- Rockets misses three point jump shot
- Alperen Sengun offensive rebound
- Rockets misses three point jump shot
- Rockets defensive rebound
- Rockets 60 second timeout
- Rockets lineup change (Kevin Durant, Alperen Sengun, Reed Sheppard, Jabari Smith Jr., Tari Eason)
- Heat misses three point jump shot
- Rockets turnover
- Amen Thompson offensive rebound
- Rockets misses two point jump shot
- +3Heat makes three point jump shot18-11
- Bam Adebayo defensive rebound
- Rockets misses two point jump shot
- +2Heat makes two point jump shot15-11
- Bam Adebayo defensive rebound
- Rockets misses three point jump shot
- Rockets personal foul
- Pelle Larsson misses regular free throw 1 of 2
- Heat offensive rebound
- +1Pelle Larsson makes regular free throw 2 of 213-11
- +2Rockets makes two point jump shot12-10
- Heat personal foul
- +1Amen Thompson makes regular free throw 1 of 112-11
- Rockets lineup change (Kevin Durant, Amen Thompson, Alperen Sengun, Jabari Smith Jr., Tari Eason)
- +2Heat makes two point jump shot12-8
- Pelle Larsson offensive rebound
- Heat misses three point jump shot
- Pelle Larsson offensive rebound
- Heat misses three point jump shot
- Simone Fontecchio defensive rebound
- Rockets misses three point jump shot
- +2Heat makes two point jump shot9-8
- Rockets personal foul
- +1Tyler Herro makes regular free throw 1 of 110-8
- Rockets turnover
- +2Heat makes two point jump shot7-8
- Bam Adebayo offensive rebound
- Heat misses three point jump shot
- Pelle Larsson defensive rebound
- Rockets misses two point jump shot
- Heat personal foul
- +2Simone Fontecchio makes two point jump shot (Davion Mitchell assists)5-8
Box Score
Player Stats
Team Stats
| Pos | Player | Pts | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pos | Player | Pts | |
|---|---|---|---|
Heat vs. Rockets: Detailed Breakdown
Matchup Overview
- Teams: Heat vs. Rockets
- Date: Saturday, March 21, 2026
- Time: 8:00 PM ET
- Venue: Toyota Center
Current Betting Odds
- Spread: Rockets favored at -2.5
- Total (Over/Under): 241.5
- Moneyline Odds: Heat 44¢, Rockets 56¢
Dimers' Win Probabilities
- Heat: 40%
- Rockets: 60%
Dimers' predictive model, renowned for its accuracy, assesses each team's chances by simulating the outcome of the game 10,000 times. This method provides a precise and unbiased view.
Projected Final Score
Our predicted final score for this NBA matchup is Heat 113-116 Rockets.
This prediction is based on each team's average score following 10,000 game simulations.
Our Prediction: Who Wins?
After extensive simulations, our model gives the Heat a win probability of 40%, while the Rockets have a win probability of 60%. Discover the best spread, over/under, and moneyline odds for the game on this page.
Summary
According to our analysis, the Rockets are more likely to beat the Heat in the NBA game at Toyota Center on Sunday. Discover the best spread, over/under and moneyline odds, picks and probabilities for the game on this page.
Our Heat vs. Rockets predictions, based on sophisticated simulations and current data, guide you in making informed decisions. Remember to bet responsibly and within your financial limits.
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