NBA first basket predictions and picks for Saturday, November 14, 2026

Giannis Antetokounmpo leads Dimers' NBA first basket predictions for Saturday, November 14, 2026, with a 16.6% chance of scoring the opening basket when his Heat host the Pistons.

But the player most likely to score first isn't always the best bet. We compare our projections with available sportsbook and prediction market odds to identify where Saturday's first basket betting value lies.

NBA first basket predictions today: Top 10 players

Here are Saturday's 10 most likely first basket scorers, based on our NBA player projections.

• Giannis Antetokounmpo (Heat vs. Pistons): 16.6% probability
• Kyrie Irving (Mavericks @ Cavaliers): 14.2%
• Cade Cunningham (Pistons @ Heat): 14.2%
• Donovan Mitchell (Cavaliers vs. Mavericks): 13.7%
• Cooper Flagg (Mavericks @ Cavaliers): 13.7%
• Norman Powell (Bulls @ Timberwolves): 12.9%
• LaMelo Ball (Timberwolves vs. Bulls): 12.8%
• Jalen Smith (Bulls @ Timberwolves): 12.3%
• Ayo Dosunmu (Timberwolves vs. Bulls): 12.2%
• Bam Adebayo (Heat vs. Pistons): 11.2%

Best NBA first basket bet tonight: Kyrie Irving (+1100)

While Giannis Antetokounmpo is Saturday's likeliest first basket scorer, the Mavericks' Kyrie Irving offers the best betting value when comparing our in-house probabilities with available odds.

• Matchup: Mavericks vs. Cavaliers (7:30 PM ET)
• Odds: +1100 (FanDuel)
• Implied probability: 8.3%
• Dimers' probability: 14.2%
• Edge: 5.9%

Our model gives Irving a 14.2% chance of scoring the opening basket against the Cavaliers, compared with the 8.3% implied by FanDuel's +1100 odds.

That's a 5.9% edge, the largest identified across Saturday's first basket markets.

More NBA first basket picks, projections and offer

Our NBA player props page features our full list of first basket bets, while our NBA player projections show first basket probabilities for every expected starter.

Want the full picture? Unlock our full range of NBA projections and player props with Dimers Pro.

If you’re placing a first basket bet tonight, here’s the latest offer from bet365.

How we project NBA first baskets

Dimers' NBA first basket model estimates each projected starter's chance of scoring the opening basket using shot frequency, scoring efficiency, and each player's share of their team's scoring opportunities.

Predictions may change as starting lineups are confirmed or new injury information becomes available. Learn how our predictions work.

This article uses a human-written template, with player projections, matchups, and odds populated automatically.

Dimers encourages responsible gambling.