NBA first basket predictions and picks for Thursday, November 12, 2026

Anthony Davis leads Dimers' NBA first basket predictions for Thursday, November 12, 2026, with a 16.2% chance of scoring the opening basket when his Wizards host the Pistons.

But the player most likely to score first isn't always the best bet. We compare our projections with available sportsbook and prediction market odds to identify where Thursday's first basket betting value lies.

NBA first basket predictions today: Top 10 players

Here are Thursday's 10 most likely first basket scorers, based on our NBA player projections.

• Anthony Davis (Wizards vs. Pistons): 16.2% probability
• Kyrie Irving (Mavericks @ Timberwolves): 14.4%
• Cooper Flagg (Mavericks @ Timberwolves): 14.0%
• Cade Cunningham (Pistons @ Wizards): 13.7%
• LaMelo Ball (Timberwolves vs. Mavericks): 12.9%
• Tyrese Maxey (76ers vs. Raptors): 12.7%
• Ayo Dosunmu (Timberwolves vs. Mavericks): 12.5%
• RJ Barrett (Raptors @ 76ers): 12.1%
• Jaylen Brown (76ers vs. Raptors): 11.8%
• Kyshawn George (Wizards vs. Pistons): 11.5%

Best NBA first basket bet tonight: Kyrie Irving (+1100)

While Anthony Davis is Thursday's likeliest first basket scorer, the Mavericks' Kyrie Irving offers the best betting value when comparing our in-house probabilities with available odds.

• Matchup: Mavericks vs. Timberwolves (8:00 PM ET)
• Odds: +1100 (FanDuel)
• Implied probability: 8.3%
• Dimers' probability: 14.4%
• Edge: 6.1%

Our model gives Irving a 14.4% chance of scoring the opening basket against the Timberwolves, compared with the 8.3% implied by FanDuel's +1100 odds.

That's a 6.1% edge, the largest identified across Thursday's first basket markets.

More NBA first basket picks, projections and offer

Our NBA player props page features our full list of first basket bets, while our NBA player projections show first basket probabilities for every expected starter.

Want the full picture? Unlock our full range of NBA projections and player props with Dimers Pro.

If you’re placing a first basket bet tonight, here’s the latest offer from bet365.

How we project NBA first baskets

Dimers' NBA first basket model estimates each projected starter's chance of scoring the opening basket using shot frequency, scoring efficiency, and each player's share of their team's scoring opportunities.

Predictions may change as starting lineups are confirmed or new injury information becomes available. Learn how our predictions work.

This article uses a human-written template, with player projections, matchups, and odds populated automatically.

Dimers encourages responsible gambling.