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Read Article Warriors vs. Rockets prediction, odds, pick for Nov. 11, 2026
Updated: | First published:
Written by Dimers Data
Our Warriors vs. Rockets predictions include win probabilities, the latest odds, and player projections.
The Houston Rockets are favored to beat the Golden State Warriors at Toyota Center on Wednesday (9:30 PM ET), according to Dimers' NBA model.
Our Warriors vs. Rockets prediction gives Houston a 67.8% chance of winning, but the latest odds suggest there's betting value on Warriors to cover at +6.5.
Warriors vs. Rockets key predictions
- Predicted score: Rockets 112-107 Warriors
- Rockets win probability: 67.8%
- Warriors win probability: 32.2%
- Warriors +6.5 spread: 54.5% cover probability
- Under 220.5 points: 50.8% probability
Our NBA predictions project each team's score based on player performance, expected minutes, matchups, availability, and home-court advantage.
We calculate win, spread, and total probabilities from these projections, comparing them against current odds to find betting value.
Warriors vs. Rockets odds
Here are the best available odds across the moneyline, spread, and total points markets we track.
- Warriors moneyline: 31¢ (Novig)
- Rockets moneyline: 70¢ (Novig)
- Warriors +6.5: -105 (DraftKings)
- Rockets -6.5: 49¢ (Polymarket)
- Over 220.5 points: 50¢ (Novig)
- Under 220.5 points: 51¢ (Kalshi)
Odds are subject to change and may vary by location.
Warriors vs. Rockets pick: Warriors +6.5 (-105)
Our model makes the Rockets the likelier winner, but our best value bet is the Warriors to cover the +6.5 spread at -105 on DraftKings.
Those odds give Warriors an implied cover probability of 51.2%, while our model puts it at 54.5%.
That's a 3.3% edge, the largest across the moneyline, spread, and total points markets for this game.
Warriors vs. Rockets player projections
Dimers' NBA player projections cover points, rebounds, assists, and more, accounting for recent performance, expected minutes, lineup changes, and defensive matchups.
Warriors star Stephen Curry leads the scoring projections for this matchup with 28.0 points, plus 4.2 assists and 3.6 rebounds. The Rockets have three players among the top five projected scorers, compared to the Warriors' two.
Top 5 projected scorers
- Stephen Curry (Warriors): 28.0 points
- Kevin Durant (Rockets): 23.0
- Alperen Sengun (Rockets): 19.7
- Yaxel Lendeborg (Warriors): 19.1
- Amen Thompson (Rockets): 16.5
Projections are estimates, not betting recommendations. Compare them with available odds to judge value.
Get every Warriors vs. Rockets prediction with Dimers Pro
Dimers Pro members get full access to our Warriors vs. Rockets predictions, including:
- Best bets across the moneyline, spread, and total points markets
- Points, rebounds, and assists projections for players on both teams
- Player prop edges for points, rebounds, assists, three-pointers, steals, and blocks
Warriors vs. Rockets game details
- Matchup: Golden State Warriors vs. Houston Rockets
- Date: Wednesday, November 11, 2026
- Time: 9:30 PM ET
- Venue: Toyota Center
About this prediction
This preview uses predictions from our NBA models, presented through a template written by our editorial team. Matchup details fill in automatically.
Predictions are estimates, not guarantees, and can change as new information comes in, such as injury news or lineup changes. Learn how our predictions work.
Dimers encourages responsible gambling.
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Dimers Data Dimers Data publishes sports predictions and betting insights powered by Dimers' proprietary predictive models. The team develops and maintains the automated publishing systems used to deliver consistent, data-driven coverage across major sports.
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