Oct 22, 2026
NBA player props today: Thursday's best props include LeBron James [10/22/2026]
Read Article NBA first basket picks and predictions for Thursday, October 22, 2026
Updated: | First published:
Written by Nick Slade, Chief Content Officer
Get first basket predictions today guided by expert analysis of NBA slate on 10/22.
Our NBA first basket picks and predictions for today—Thursday, October 22, 2026—are live with the Cavaliers' Donovan Mitchell projected as the most likely player to score first.
These projections derive insights from key first basket stats, including player efficiency, shot frequency, and expected starting lineups, forming part of our daily NBA player projections.
Mitchell, Nikola Jokic and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander lead Thursday’s most likely first basket scorers, while we also showcase tonight's top first basket value picks by comparing real-time odds to model-generated probabilities.
NBA first basket predictions tonight (October 22, 2026)
- Donovan Mitchell (Cavaliers): 13.9% probability
- Nikola Jokic (Nuggets): 13.9% probability
- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (Thunder): 12.9% probability
- Jalen Williams (Thunder): 12.8% probability
- Jaylen Brown (76ers): 12.7% probability
- Jamal Murray (Nuggets): 11.1% probability
- Peyton Watson (Cavaliers): 10.8% probability
- Joel Embiid (76ers): 10.7% probability
- Tyrese Maxey (76ers): 10.4% probability
- LeBron James (76ers): 10.2% probability
NBA first basket picks today (October 22, 2026)
- Peyton Watson (Cavaliers): 2.5% edge at +1100 odds
- Jalen Williams (Thunder): 1.0% edge at +750 odds
- Jaylen Brown (76ers): 0.9% edge at +750 odds
- LeBron James (76ers): 0.7% edge at +950 odds
- Christian Braun (Nuggets): 0.2% edge at +1400 odds
Edges represent the difference between model probability and implied odds.
For more insights on prop markets and value plays across the league, explore our full list of NBA prop bets for 10/22.
Conclusion: Betting on today's NBA first basket
For Thursday, October 22, 2026, Donovan Mitchell, Nikola Jokic and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander lead our first basket projections, while Jalen Williams shapes as the strongest value play at +750. All picks and predictions are derived from Dimers’ NBA first basket model.
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Nick Slade, with nearly two decades of experience, is the Chief Content Officer at Cipher Sports Technology Group, overseeing content for Dimers. He specializes in soccer, NBA, and NHL betting, leveraging predictive analytics and machine learning to provide accurate betting insights.
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