Cavaliers vs. Heat NBA Cup prediction, odds, pick for Nov. 13, 2026

The Miami Heat are favored to beat the Cleveland Cavaliers at Kaseya Center on Friday (8:00 PM ET), according to Dimers' NBA model.

Our Cavaliers vs. Heat prediction gives Miami a 60.1% chance of winning, and the latest odds suggest there's betting value on the Heat moneyline, too.

This game is part of Group Play in the 2026 NBA Cup, with the New York Knicks entering as defending champions and the final set for Hinkle Fieldhouse in Indianapolis on Dec. 11.

Cavaliers vs. Heat key predictions

• Predicted score: Heat 118-115 Cavaliers
• Heat win probability: 60.1%
• Cavaliers win probability: 39.9%
• Heat -3.5 spread: 53.2% cover probability
• Under 235.5 points: 53.4% probability

Our NBA predictions project each team's score based on player performance, expected minutes, matchups, availability, and home-court advantage.

We calculate win, spread, and total probabilities from these projections, comparing them against current odds to find betting value.

Cavaliers vs. Heat odds

Below are the best available odds across the moneyline, spread, and total points markets we track.

• Cavaliers moneyline: 44¢ (Polymarket)
• Heat moneyline: 57¢ (Novig)
• Cavaliers +3.5: -130 (Caesars Sportsbook)
• Heat -3.5: +100 (Caesars Sportsbook)
• Over 235.5 points: 50¢ (Polymarket)
• Under 235.5 points: 50¢ (Novig)

Odds are subject to change and may vary by location.

Cavaliers vs. Heat pick: Heat ML (57¢)

Our model makes the Heat the more likely winner, and our best value bet is the Heat moneyline at 57¢ on Novig, too.

Those odds give Heat an implied win probability of 56.5%, while our model puts it at 60.1%.

That's a 3.6% edge, the biggest across the moneyline, spread, and total points markets for this matchup.

Cavaliers vs. Heat player projections

Dimers' NBA player projections cover points, rebounds, assists, and more, accounting for recent performance, expected minutes, lineup changes, and defensive matchups.

Heat star Giannis Antetokounmpo leads the scoring projections for this matchup with 32.0 points, plus 11.8 rebounds and 6.9 assists. The Cavaliers have three players among the top five projected scorers, compared to the Heat's two.

Top 5 projected scorers

1. Giannis Antetokounmpo (Heat): 32.0 points
2. Donovan Mitchell (Cavaliers): 25.9
3. Bam Adebayo (Heat): 19.7
4. James Harden (Cavaliers): 18.7
5. Jarrett Allen (Cavaliers): 14.9

Projections are estimates, not betting recommendations. Compare them with available odds to judge value.

Get every Cavaliers vs. Heat prediction with Dimers Pro

Dimers Pro members get full access to our Cavaliers vs. Heat predictions, including:

• Best bets across the moneyline, spread, and total points markets
• Points, rebounds, and assists projections for players on both teams
• Player prop edges for points, rebounds, assists, three-pointers, steals, and blocks

Cavaliers vs. Heat game details

• Matchup: Cleveland Cavaliers vs. Miami Heat
• Date: Friday, November 13, 2026
• Time: 8:00 PM ET
• Venue: Kaseya Center
• Tournament details: 2026 NBA Cup

About this prediction

This preview uses predictions from our NBA models, presented through a template written by our editorial team. Matchup details fill in automatically.

Predictions are estimates, not guarantees, and can change as new information comes in, such as injury news or lineup changes. Learn how our predictions work.

Dimers encourages responsible gambling.