Philadelphia vs. Sporting KC Prediction, Picks and Odds

Dimers' prediction and analysis for the Philadelphia vs. Sporting KC MLS match on September 19, 2026 includes win probabilities and picks for the biggest betting markets. Get Dimers Pro for full access.
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FINAL
MLS
FINAL
MLS sport icon
MLS
Philadelphia
4
3
Sporting KC
Sporting KCSKC
Score Summary
PhiladelphiaPHI
Andre Luiz (5')
Soccer ball icon
Andre Luiz (10')
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W. Meyer (16')
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B. Damiani (64')
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C. Sullivan (66')
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M. Iloski (68')
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Z. Bassong (o.g.) (73')
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Live Probabilities
Win %
  • Sporting KC
    0.0%
  • Draw
    0.0%
  • Philadelphia
    100.0%
Win Probability
Match Timeline
  1. 90'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Philadelphia Union: A. Anello replaces B. Damiani
  2. 90'
    Yellow Card
    D. Jean Jacques (Philadelphia Union) cautioned
  3. 90'
    Yellow Card
    Z. Bassong (Sporting Kansas City) cautioned
  4. 83'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Sporting Kansas City: R. Ramos replaces C. Harris
  5. 83'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Philadelphia Union: J. Bueno replaces J. Lukic
  6. 83'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Philadelphia Union: E. Alladoh replaces M. Iloski
  7. 82'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Philadelphia Union: A. Bedoya replaces C. Sullivan
  8. 80'
    Yellow Card
    K. Wagner (Philadelphia Union) cautioned
  9. 73'
    Soccer ball icon
    Goal scored for Philadelphia Union by Z. Bassong (o.g.)
    4-3
  10. 71'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Sporting Kansas City: O. Wolff replaces S. Afrifa
  11. 71'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Sporting Kansas City: Z. Bassong replaces L. Johnsen
  12. 70'
    Yellow Card
    C. Sullivan (Philadelphia Union) cautioned
  13. 68'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Sporting Kansas City: J. Reid replaces T. Calheira
  14. 68'
    Soccer ball icon
    Goal scored for Philadelphia Union by M. Iloski, assisted by Q. Sullivan
    3-3
  15. 66'
    Soccer ball icon
    Goal scored for Philadelphia Union by C. Sullivan, assisted by D. Jean Jacques
    2-3
  16. 64'
    Soccer ball icon
    Goal scored for Philadelphia Union by B. Damiani, assisted by F. Westfield
    1-3
  17. 53'
    Yellow Card
    L. Johnsen (Sporting Kansas City) cautioned
  18. 46'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Philadelphia Union: Q. Sullivan replaces I. Vassilev
  19. 46'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Sporting Kansas City: J. Bartlett replaces K. Agyabeng
  20. 45'
    Yellow Card
    K. Agyabeng (Sporting Kansas City) cautioned
  21. 16'
    Soccer ball icon
    Goal scored for Sporting Kansas City by W. Meyer, assisted by E. Karic
    0-3
  22. 10'
    Soccer ball icon
    Goal scored for Sporting Kansas City by Andre Luiz, assisted by C. Harris
    0-2
  23. 5'
    Soccer ball icon
    Goal scored for Sporting Kansas City by Andre Luiz, assisted by L. Johnsen
    0-1

Philadelphia vs. Sporting KC: Match prediction & analysis

Match overview

  • Teams: Philadelphia vs. Sporting KC
  • Date: Saturday, September 19, 2026
  • Time: 8:30 PM ET

Current betting odds

  • Moneyline: Philadelphia 64¢, Sporting KC 18¢, draw 20¢
  • Total (Over/Under): 2.5 goals (-265/28¢)

Dimers' win & correct score probabilities

  • Philadelphia: 61.7%
  • Sporting KC: 19.2%
  • Draw: 19.1%

These probabilities are generated using Dimers' MLS data model, which predicts the most likely outcomes for all major betting markets.

Most likely correct score: Philadelphia 2-1 Sporting KC (9.5%)

Correct score projections are based on expected scoring patterns. A team can have a higher chance of winning overall, even if the single most likely scoreline is a draw or narrow result.

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Who will win Philadelphia vs. Sporting KC? Prediction & correct score

Philadelphia is the most likely winner of this match with a win probability of 61.7%.

The most likely correct score is Philadelphia 2-1 Sporting KC.

But the most likely outcomes aren't always the best betting opportunities.

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