Houston Dynamo vs. St Louis City prediction, odds, MLS Cup first round picks [11/7/2026]

Houston and St Louis City will meet in the MLS Cup first round at Shell Energy Stadium on Saturday, starting at 7:00 PM ET.

Dimers' advanced MLS model projects Houston as the most likely winner in this Houston vs. St Louis City prediction.

This article offers further insights into Saturday's match, including best bets and picks.

Houston Dynamo vs. St Louis City prediction and odds

Using innovative machine learning and statistical analysis, we have re-simulated the result of Saturday's MLS matchup between Houston and St Louis City, forming part of our MLS predictions coverage.

Our famous predictive model suggests a 39.6% chance of Houston winning, a 35.1% chance for St Louis City, and a 25.4% chance of a draw. Additionally, the 2.5-goal over/under has a 52.5% chance of going over., according to our model.

Latest betting odds

We have researched the best MLS odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

• Moneyline: St Louis City +170, Houston +170
• Total Goals: Over/Under 2.5 (-144/+138)

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Model picks and best bet for MLS Cup first round

After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets in this matchup. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

• Moneyline: Houston @ +170 via Novig
• Total Goals: Under 2.5 @ +138 via Polymarket

According to our best MLS bets, the top play to make on this game is Under 2.5 total goals.

These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the current available odds.

Correct score projections

The top three most likely final scores, according to our model, are listed below, with a 1-1 draw being the most probable:

• Houston 1-1 St Louis City (12% probability)
• Houston 1-0 St Louis City (9%)
• Houston 2-1 St Louis City (8.6%)

These predictions are based on each team's average score according to our machine learning model, meaning the most likely correct score can differ from our predicted winner.

Game info & kickoff details

Saturday's MLS game between Houston and St Louis City in MLS at Shell Energy Stadium is scheduled to begin at 7:00 PM ET.

• Who: Houston Dynamo vs. St Louis City
• Date: Saturday, November 7, 2026
• Time: 7:00 PM ET/4:00 PM PT
• Venue: Shell Energy Stadium

Conclusion

According to our computer model, Houston has a 39.6% win probability on Saturday, St Louis City has a 35.1% win probability, and there is a 25.4% chance that the game will end in a draw.

Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.

This article's predictions and probabilities are generated by Dimers' proprietary MLS prediction model. Our editorial team reviews the resulting content for accuracy and presentation before publication.