Philadelphia Union vs. Toronto FC prediction, odds, MLS Cup first round picks [11/7/2026]

Philadelphia will take on Toronto in the MLS Cup first round at Subaru Park on Saturday, commencing at 4:00 PM ET.

Dimers' proven MLS model projects Philadelphia as the most likely winner in this Philadelphia vs. Toronto prediction.

This article offers further insights into Saturday's match, including best bets and picks.

Philadelphia Union vs. Toronto FC prediction and odds

Using innovative machine learning and data, we have re-simulated the outcome of Saturday's MLS matchup between Philadelphia and Toronto, forming part of our MLS predictions coverage.

Our leading predictive model currently indicates a 70.2% chance of Philadelphia winning, a 13.2% chance for Toronto, and a 16.5% chance of a draw. Additionally, the over/under total of 2.5 goals has a 69.9% chance of going over., according to our model.

Latest betting odds

We have sourced the best MLS odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

• Moneyline: Toronto +614, Philadelphia -220
• Total Goals: Over/Under 2.5 (-233/+223)

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Model picks and best bet for MLS Cup first round

After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets in this matchup. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

• Moneyline: Philadelphia @ -220 via BetMGM
• Total Goals: Over 2.5 @ -233 via Novig

According to our MLS best bets, the top play to make on this game is Philadelphia to win.

These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the current available odds.

Correct score projections

Here are the top three most likely final scores according to our model, with a 2-1 Philadelphia win being the most probable:

• Philadelphia 2-1 Toronto (9.3% probability)
• Philadelphia 2-0 Toronto (8.9%)
• Philadelphia 3-1 Toronto (8%)

Game info & kickoff details

Saturday's MLS matchup between Philadelphia and Toronto in MLS at Subaru Park is scheduled to begin at 4:00 PM ET.

• Who: Philadelphia Union vs. Toronto FC
• Date: Saturday, November 7, 2026
• Time: 4:00 PM ET/1:00 PM PT
• Venue: Subaru Park

Conclusion

According to our computer model, Philadelphia has a 70.2% win probability on Saturday, Toronto has a 13.2% win probability, and there is a 16.5% chance that the game will end in a draw.

Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.

This article's predictions and probabilities are generated by Dimers' proprietary MLS prediction model. Our editorial team reviews the resulting content for accuracy and presentation before publication.