Toronto vs. NY City Prediction, Picks and Odds

Dimers' prediction and analysis for the Toronto vs. NY City MLS match on July 31, 2026 includes win probabilities and picks for the biggest betting markets. Get Dimers Pro for full access.
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Toronto
1
:
1
Yankee Stadium
NY City
Yankee Stadium
NY CityNYC
Score Summary
TorontoTOR
N. Mercau (pen.) (8')
Soccer ball icon
D. Mihailovic (45')
Soccer ball icon
Live Probabilities
Win %
  • NY City
    0.0%
  • Draw
    100.0%
  • Toronto
    0.0%
Win Probability
Match Timeline
  1. 87'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Toronto FC: M. Henry replaces T. Corbeanu
  2. 86'
    Substitution
    Substitution for New York City: S. Reid replaces N. Mercau
  3. 86'
    Substitution
    Substitution for New York City: M. Ilenic replaces Thiago Martins
  4. 72'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Toronto FC: D. Etienne replaces D. Mihailovic
  5. 72'
    Substitution
    Substitution for New York City: M. Carrizo replaces Talles Magno
  6. 71'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Toronto FC: A. Coello replaces N. Dorsch
  7. 71'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Toronto FC: D. Kerr replaces J. Sargent
  8. 61'
    Yellow Card
    J. Gilman (Toronto FC) cautioned
  9. 59'
    Substitution
    Substitution for New York City: M. Jones replaces B. Traore
  10. 59'
    Substitution
    Substitution for New York City: H. Wolf replaces A. Ojeda
  11. 56'
    Yellow Card
    N. Dorsch (Toronto FC) cautioned
  12. 45'
    Yellow Card
    J. Osorio (Toronto FC) cautioned
  13. 45'
    Soccer ball icon
    Goal scored for Toronto FC by D. Mihailovic
    1-1
  14. 18'
    Yellow Card
    N. Mercau (New York City) cautioned
  15. 11'
    Yellow Card
    Talles Magno (New York City) cautioned
  16. 8'
    Soccer ball icon
    Goal scored for New York City by N. Mercau (pen.)
    0-1
  17. 6'
    Yellow Card
    R. Laryea (Toronto FC) cautioned

Toronto vs. NY City: Match prediction & analysis

Match overview

  • Teams: Toronto vs. NY City
  • Date: Friday, July 31, 2026
  • Time: 7:30 PM ET
  • Venue: Yankee Stadium

Current betting odds

  • Moneyline: Toronto +400, NY City -138, draw +310
  • Total (Over/Under): 2.5 goals (-157/+135)

Dimers' win & correct score probabilities

  • Toronto: 17.7%
  • NY City: 61.8%
  • Draw: 20.5%

These probabilities are generated using Dimers' MLS data model, which predicts the most likely outcomes for all major betting markets.

Most likely correct score: Toronto 1-2 NY City (9.9%)

Correct score projections are based on expected scoring patterns. A team can have a higher chance of winning overall, even if the single most likely scoreline is a draw or narrow result.

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The Dimers betting model calculates probabilities for all match outcomes to identify where it sees the strongest value across the betting markets, ranking every opportunity by model edge.

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  • Moneyline probabilities
  • Total goals probabilities
  • Correct score probabilities

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Who will win Toronto vs. NY City? Prediction & correct score

NY City is the most likely winner of this match with a win probability of 61.8%.

The most likely correct score is Toronto 1-2 NY City.

But the most likely outcomes aren't always the best betting opportunities.

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