Chicago vs. Houston Prediction, Picks and Odds

Dimers' prediction and analysis for the Chicago vs. Houston MLS match on February 21, 2026 includes win probabilities and picks for the biggest betting markets. Get Dimers Pro for full access.
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Chicago
1
2
Shell Energy Stadium
Houston
Shell Energy Stadium
HoustonHOU
Score Summary
ChicagoCHI
Guilherme (67')
Soccer ball icon
Guilherme (78')
Soccer ball icon
H. Cuypers (31')
Soccer ball icon
Live Probabilities
Win %
  • Houston
    100.0%
  • Draw
    0.0%
  • Chicago
    0.0%
Win Probability
Match Timeline
  1. 90'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Houston Dynamo: N. Markanich replaces L. Ennali
  2. 88'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Chicago Fire: S. Oregel replaces D. D'Avilla
  3. 88'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Chicago Fire: P. Dithejane replaces M. Mbokazi
  4. 87'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Houston Dynamo: D. Samassekou replaces J. McGlynn
  5. 87'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Houston Dynamo: F. Negri replaces Guilherme
  6. 85'
    Yellow Card
    E. Sviatchenko (Houston Dynamo) cautioned
  7. 84'
    Yellow Card
    C. Mueller (Chicago Fire) cautioned
  8. 79'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Houston Dynamo: O. Lingr replaces D. Holmes
  9. 78'
    Soccer ball icon
    Goal scored for Houston Dynamo by Guilherme
    1-2
  10. 76'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Chicago Fire: C. Mueller replaces R. Lod
  11. 76'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Chicago Fire: C. Cupps replaces S. Rogers
  12. 75'
    Yellow Card
    Lucas Halter (Houston Dynamo) cautioned
  13. 67'
    Soccer ball icon
    Goal scored for Houston Dynamo by Guilherme
    1-1
  14. 31'
    Soccer ball icon
    Goal scored for Chicago Fire by H. Cuypers
    1-0
  15. 26'
    Yellow Card
    J. Waterman (Chicago Fire) cautioned
  16. 13'
    Yellow Card
    D. Holmes (Houston Dynamo) cautioned

Chicago vs. Houston: Match prediction & analysis

Match overview

  • Teams: Chicago vs. Houston
  • Date: Saturday, February 21, 2026
  • Time: 8:30 PM ET
  • Venue: Shell Energy Stadium

Current betting odds

  • Moneyline: Chicago +200, Houston +135, draw +260
  • Total (Over/Under): 2.5 goals (-140/+115)

Dimers' win & correct score probabilities

  • Chicago: 34.3%
  • Houston: 42.2%
  • Draw: 23.5%

These probabilities are generated using Dimers' MLS data model, which predicts the most likely outcomes for all major betting markets.

Most likely correct score: Chicago 1-1 Houston (10.6%)

Correct score projections are based on expected scoring patterns. A team can have a higher chance of winning overall, even if the single most likely scoreline is a draw or narrow result.

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  • Moneyline probabilities
  • Total goals probabilities
  • Correct score probabilities

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Who will win Chicago vs. Houston? Prediction & correct score

Houston is the most likely winner of this match with a win probability of 42.2%.

The most likely correct score is Chicago 1-1 Houston.

But the most likely outcomes aren't always the best betting opportunities.

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