Sep 21, 2026
Nationals vs. Tigers prediction: Detroit favored to win Monday's MLB matchup [9/21/2026]
Read Article Blue Jays vs. Orioles prediction: Toronto favored to win Monday's MLB matchup [9/21/2026]
Updated: | First published:
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Written by Jason Bevilacqua, Head of Content and Communities
Dimers' simulation model projects a 51.5% win probability for the Blue Jays at Oriole Park at Camden Yards.
The Baltimore Orioles will take on the Toronto Blue Jays, in what is expected to be a close MLB game, at Oriole Park at Camden Yards on Monday, starting at 6:35 PM ET.
Shane Baz (6-15, 4.11 ERA) will be the starting pitcher for the Orioles, while the Blue Jays are going with Trey Yesavage (5-5, 3.65 ERA).
Dimers' proven MLB model gives the Blue Jays a slight edge with a 51.5% win probability over the Orioles.
This article offers a complete Blue Jays vs. Orioles prediction, including best bets and picks.
Blue Jays vs. Orioles prediction and odds
Using innovative machine learning and statistical analysis, we have re-simulated the outcome of Monday's MLB matchup between the Blue Jays and Orioles, forming part of our MLB predictions coverage.
Our leading predictive model currently gives the Blue Jays a 51.5% chance of beating the Orioles. According to our model, the Orioles (+1.5) have a 61.0% chance of covering the run line, while the 7.5-run over/under has a 58.7% chance of going over.
Latest betting odds
We have sourced the best MLB odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
- Run Line: Blue Jays -1.5 (+170) / Orioles +1.5 (-178)
- Moneyline: Blue Jays -102, Orioles +100
- Total: Over/Under 7.5 (-106/+104)
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Model picks and best bet
After matching our predictions against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets in this matchup. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
- Run line: Blue Jays -1.5 @ 37¢ via Novig
- Moneyline: Blue Jays @ 50¢ via Novig
- Total: Over 7.5 @ 51¢ via Novig
According to our best MLB bets, the top play to make on this game is Over 7.5 total runs.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the current available odds.
Game info & first pitch details
Monday's MLB matchup between the Orioles and Blue Jays at Oriole Park at Camden Yards is scheduled to start at 6:35 PM ET.
- Who: Toronto Blue Jays vs. Baltimore Orioles
- Date: Monday, September 21, 2026
- Time: 6:35 PM ET/3:35PM PT
- Venue: Oriole Park at Camden Yards
Conclusion
We predict the Blue Jays, with a 51.5% win probability, will likely beat the Orioles in Monday's MLB matchup.
Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.
This article's predictions and probabilities are generated by Dimers' proprietary MLB prediction model. Our editorial team reviews the resulting content for accuracy and presentation before publication.
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Jason Bevilacqua, an expert in MLB, NHL, NBA, MLS, and NFL, delivers game previews, best bets, and props. Since 2020, as Head of Social and Community at Dimers, he has contributed insightful articles utilizing data-driven models and simulations.
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