MLB player props today: Monday's best props include Blade Tidwell [9/21/2026]

Blade Tidwell over 3.5 strikeouts (-140)

• Edge: 9.2%
• Probability: 67.5%
• Game: Twins vs. Giants (9:45PM ET)

Our model has flagged value on Giants' Blade Tidwell over 3.5 strikeouts. A probability of 67.5% gives this play an edge of 9.2% at -140 odds.

Blade Tidwell over 1.5 walks allowed (-145)

• Edge: 7.5%
• Probability: 66.7%
• Game: Twins vs. Giants (9:45PM ET)

Blade Tidwell’s walks allowed prop shows a 66.7% probability and an 7.5% edge at -145 odds, according to our model.

Blade Tidwell over 4.5 hits allowed (-123)

• Edge: 8.3%
• Probability: 63.4%
• Game: Twins vs. Giants (9:45PM ET)

The data highlights value on Blade Tidwell over 4.5 hits allowed, with simulations showing a 63.4% probability and an 8.3% edge at -123.

Zebby Matthews under 15.5 outs recorded (-101)

• Edge: 5.2%
• Probability: 55.4%
• Game: Twins vs. Giants (9:45PM ET)

Our model finds value on Zebby Matthews under 15.5 outs recorded, with a 55.4% probability and an edge of 5.2% at -101 odds.

Blade Tidwell over 15.5 outs recorded (+111)

• Edge: 6.1%
• Probability: 53.5%
• Game: Twins vs. Giants (9:45PM ET)

Simulations indicate value on Blade Tidwell over 15.5 outs recorded for Giants, showing an edge of 6.1% at +111 odds.

Blade Tidwell over 2.5 earned runs (+130)

• Edge: 6.7%
• Probability: 50.1%
• Game: Twins vs. Giants (9:45PM ET)

Blade Tidwell’s earned runs prop shows an edge of 6.7% at +130 odds, supported by a 50.1% probability according to our model.

Ryan Kreidler over 0.5 to steal a base (+1200)

• Edge: 8.8%
• Probability: 16.5%
• Game: Twins vs. Giants (9:45PM ET)

Our model highlights value on Ryan Kreidler over 0.5 to steal a base for Twins, with a 16.5% probability and a 8.8% edge at +1200 odds.

Walker Jenkins over 0.5 to steal a base (+640)

• Edge: 2.7%
• Probability: 16.2%
• Game: Twins vs. Giants (9:45PM ET)

The data shows value on Walker Jenkins over 0.5 to steal a base, supported by a 16.2% probability at +640 odds and an edge of 2.7%.

Emmanuel Rodriguez over 0.5 to steal a base (+1140)

• Edge: 5.7%
• Probability: 13.8%
• Game: Twins vs. Giants (9:45PM ET)

A 5.7% edge on the over 0.5 to steal a base line makes Emmanuel Rodriguez a value play in Twins vs. Giants, supported by a 13.8% probability at +1140 odds.

Osleivis Basabe over 0.5 to steal a base (+1700)

• Edge: 3.7%
• Probability: 9.3%
• Game: Twins vs. Giants (9:45PM ET)

Simulations show value on Osleivis Basabe over 0.5 to steal a base here, with a 9.3% probability and 3.7% edge at +1700 odds.

MLB player prop summary: Monday, September 21, 2026

A quick summary of today’s top props by probability according to our model as of 8:56PM ET:

Conclusion

For September 21, 2026, our MLB prop bets feature players such as Blade Tidwell, Zebby Matthews and Ryan Kreidler. Each pick is grounded in real-time data and advanced simulations to help you bet with clarity and purpose.

Built using automation and human oversight, this article draws on the latest data to deliver accurate, timely insights. If using this article for betting, Dimers promotes responsible gambling.