Marlins vs. Padres prediction: San Diego favored to win Sunday's MLB matchup [9/20/2026]

Using powerful machine learning and data, we have re-simulated the result of Sunday's MLB matchup between the Marlins and Padres, forming part of our MLB predictions coverage.

Our famous predictive model currently gives the Padres a 55.5% chance of beating the Marlins. According to our model, the Marlins (+1.5) have a 62.4% chance of covering the run line, while the 8.5-run over/under has a 50.1% chance of staying under.

Latest betting odds

We have sourced the best MLB odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

• Run Line: Marlins +1.5 (-170) / Padres -1.5 (+167)
• Moneyline: Marlins +125, Padres -127
• Total: Over/Under 8.5 (+117/-120)

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Model picks and best bet

After matching our predictions against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets in this matchup. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

• Run line: Padres -1.5 @ 37¢ via Novig
• Moneyline: Marlins @ 44¢ via Novig
• Total: Over 8.5 @ 46¢ via Polymarket

According to our MLB best bets, the top play to make on this game is Over 8.5 total runs.

These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the current available odds.

Game info & first pitch details

Sunday's MLB matchup between the Padres and Marlins at Petco Park is scheduled to start at 4:10 PM ET.

• Who: Miami Marlins vs. San Diego Padres
• Date: Sunday, September 20, 2026
• Time: 4:10 PM ET/1:10PM PT
• Venue: Petco Park

Conclusion

We predict the Padres, with a 55.5% win probability, will likely beat the Marlins in Sunday's MLB matchup.

Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.

This article's predictions and probabilities are generated by Dimers' proprietary MLB prediction model. Our editorial team reviews the resulting content for accuracy and presentation before publication.