Marlins vs. Padres: MLB Prediction & Analysis

Our detailed prediction and analysis for the Marlins vs. Padres MLB game on Sunday, September 20, 2026 is featured below. Drawing from 10,000 game simulations, we provide expert picks, betting odds, and insights.
FINAL
MLB
FINAL
MLB sport icon
MLB
Marlins
Sandy Alcantara 13-10, 3.85 ERA
3
7
Petco Park
Padres
Walker Buehler 8-6, 4.58 ERA
Petco Park
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 RHE
Marlins
0 0 0 0 0 0 3 0 0 3 4 1
Padres
0 2 0 2 0 0 1 2 X 7 10 0
Live Probabilities
Win %
  • Marlins
    0%
  • Padres
    100%
Win Probability
Baseball infield diamond diagram
Last At Bat
Outs
Jakob Marsee pops out to Ethan Salas.
Quick Box Score
Marlins Hitting
No.PlayerPosABRHRBIHRBBSOAVGOPS
1 K. Stowers DH3010010.3330.833
2 O. Lopez SS4000001.0000.000
3 G. Conine RF4010001.2500.500
4 H. Hernández LF4100001.0000.000
5 J. Marsee CF3100011.0000.250
6 J. Sanoja 3B3113100.3331.666
7 A. Ramírez C0000010.0001.000
8 J. Serna 2B0000000.0000.000
9 D. De Los Santos 1B3000001.0000.000
Padres Hitting
No.PlayerPosABRHRBIHRBBSOAVGOPS
1 F. Tatis RF4111100.2501.250
2 J. Bowen LF0000000.0000.000
3 M. Machado DH4000002.0000.000
4 T. France 1B4000001.0000.000
5 J. Merrill CF4110001.2500.500
6 X. Bogaerts SS3210010.3330.833
7 J. Cronenworth 2B4335201.7503.250
8 S. Song 3B1000000.0000.000
9 E. Salas C2000011.0000.333

Marlins vs. Padres: Detailed Breakdown

Matchup overview: MLB Sunday

  • Teams: Miami Marlins vs. San Diego Padres
  • Date: Sunday, September 20, 2026
  • Time: 4:10PM ET
  • Venue: Petco Park

Current betting odds

  • Spread: Marlins (+1.5, -156), Padres (-1.5, +153)
  • Moneyline: Marlins +138, Padres -144
  • Total (Over/Under): 8.5 runs (+113/-117)

Dimers’ win probabilities

  • Marlins: 42.7%
  • Padres: 57.3%

Dimers' predictive MLB model, renowned for its accuracy, assesses each team's chances by simulating the outcome of the game 10,000 times. This method provides a precise and unbiased view.

Our Prediction: Who Wins?

After extensive simulations, our model gives the Marlins a win probability of 42.7%, while the Padres have a win probability of 57.3%.

Summary

According to our analysis, the Padres are more likely to beat the Marlins in the MLB game at Petco Park on Sunday. Discover the best run line, over/under and moneyline odds, picks and probabilities for the game on this page.

Our Marlins vs. Padres predictions, based on sophisticated simulations and current data, guide you in making informed decisions. Remember to bet responsibly and within your financial limits.

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