MLB picks today: Sunday's MLB best bets include Athletics vs. Guardians play [9/20/2026]

Athletics vs. Guardians Over 7.5 runs (+111)

• Edge: 7.6%
• Probability: 55%
• Matchup: Athletics vs. Guardians (1:40PM ET)

Our model has identified value on Over 7.5 runs in Athletics vs. Guardians at 47¢ odds. A 55% probability produces an edge of 7.6%, making this the strongest play for today's MLB slate.

Brewers vs. Orioles Over 7.5 runs (-110)

• Edge: 5.8%
• Probability: 58.2%
• Matchup: Brewers vs. Orioles (7:20PM ET)

Brewers vs. Orioles over 7.5 runs carries a 5.8% edge and a probability of 58.2% at -110 odds, according to our model.

Athletics ML (+217)

• Edge: 5.8%
• Probability: 37.3%
• Matchup: Athletics vs. Guardians (1:40PM ET)

Athletics ML at 32¢ odds shows a 5.8% edge, supported by a 37.3% probability in simulations.

Yankees vs. Diamondbacks over 8.5 runs (+104)

• Edge: 5.8%
• Probability: 54.8%
• Matchup: Yankees vs. Diamondbacks (4:10PM ET)

A 5.8% edge and 54.8% probability make Yankees vs. Diamondbacks over 8.5 runs a value play in the Yankees vs. Diamondbacks matchup, per our model.

Braves vs. Astros Over 8.5 runs (+108)

• Edge: 5.3%
• Probability: 53.4%
• Matchup: Braves vs. Astros (2:10PM ET)

Braves vs. Astros Over 8.5 runs at 48¢ presents a 5.3% edge, with simulations resulting in a probability of 53.4%.

Marlins vs. Padres Over 8.5 runs (+117)

• Edge: 4.4%
• Probability: 50.4%
• Matchup: Marlins vs. Padres (4:10PM ET)

Our model finds value on Over 8.5 runs in Marlins vs. Padres at 46¢, supported by an edge of 4.4%.

Orioles ML (+180)

• Edge: 4.2%
• Probability: 39.9%
• Matchup: Brewers vs. Orioles (7:20PM ET)

Our model has uncovered value on Brewers-Orioles to finish as a tie after 90 minutes at +180. A 39.9% probability produces a 4.2% edge, making this a strong play for today's MLB action.

Orioles +1.5 (+108)

• Edge: 3.8%
• Probability: 51.9%
• Matchup: Brewers vs. Orioles (7:20PM ET)

A 3.8% edge on a 51.9% probability makes Orioles +1.5 at 48¢a solid value play in today's Brewers vs. Orioles matchup.

Mets ML (+150)

• Edge: 3.6%
• Probability: 43.6%
• Matchup: Phillies vs. Mets (1:10PM ET)

Our model projects value on Mets to win at 40¢. A 43.6% probability produces a 3.6% edge, making Mets the favorable ML play in today's matchup.

Mets +1.5 (-113)

• Edge: 3.5%
• Probability: 56.5%
• Matchup: Phillies vs. Mets (1:10PM ET)

Rounding out our top 10 bets, Mets +1.5 at 53¢ shows a 56.5% probability and a 3.5% edge.

MLB best bets summary: Sunday, 9/20/2026

As of 2:40AM ET, here are our top MLB bets by edge recommended by our model:

List of upcoming MLB games to bet on [9/20/2026]

• Phillies vs. Mets (1:10PM ET, Sunday)
• Royals vs. Pirates (1:35PM ET, Sunday)
• Athletics vs. Guardians (1:40PM ET, Sunday)
• Red Sox vs. Rays (1:40PM ET, Sunday)
• Cubs vs. Reds (1:40PM ET, Sunday)
• Tigers vs. White Sox (2:10PM ET, Sunday)
• Braves vs. Astros (2:10PM ET, Sunday)
• Nationals vs. Cardinals (2:15PM ET, Sunday)
• Blue Jays vs. Rangers (2:35PM ET, Sunday)
• Mariners vs. Rockies (3:10PM ET, Sunday)
• Twins vs. Angels (4:07PM ET, Sunday)
• Marlins vs. Padres (4:10PM ET, Sunday)
• Yankees vs. D-Backs (4:10PM ET, Sunday)
• Brewers vs. Orioles (7:20PM ET, Sunday)

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Conclusion

Our MLB best bets are locked and loaded for September 20, 2026, featuring plays such as over 7.5 runs in the Athletics vs. Guardians matchup and over 7.5 runs in the Brewers vs. Orioles matchup. Powered by advanced simulations, these picks are here to boost your betting game.

Our predictions are grounded in current data to help you make informed decisions. For additional resources and advice, head to our Responsible Gambling hub.

All odds and probabilities in this article are correct and accurate at the time of publication.