Yankees vs. Diamondbacks prediction: Why Arizona is favored to win Sunday's MLB matchup [9/20/2026]

The Arizona Diamondbacks will square off with the New York Yankees, in what is expected to be a close MLB game, at Chase Field on Sunday, commencing at 4:10 PM ET.

The Diamondbacks will send Corbin Burnes (0-0, 5.87 ERA) to the mound, pitting him against Will Warren (10-6, 3.89 ERA) for the Yankees.

Dimers' advanced MLB model gives the Diamondbacks a slight edge with a 53.6% win probability over the Yankees.

This article offers a complete Yankees vs. Diamondbacks prediction, including best bets and picks.

Yankees vs. Diamondbacks prediction and odds

Using innovative machine learning and statistical analysis, we have re-simulated the result of Sunday's MLB game between the Yankees and Diamondbacks, forming part of our MLB predictions coverage.

Our leading predictive model currently gives the Diamondbacks a 53.6% chance of defeating the Yankees. According to our model, the Yankees (+1.5) have a 62.6% chance of covering the run line, while the 8.5-run over/under has a 55.6% chance of going over.

Latest betting odds

We have sourced the best MLB odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

• Run Line: Yankees +1.5 (-203) / Diamondbacks -1.5 (+168)
• Moneyline: Yankees +113, Diamondbacks -115
• Total: Over/Under 8.5 (+113/-117)

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Model picks and best bet

After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets in this matchup. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

• Run line: Diamondbacks -1.5 @ +168 via FanDuel
• Moneyline: Diamondbacks @ -115 via bet365
• Total: Over 8.5 @ 47¢ via Novig

According to our best MLB bets, the top play to make on this game is Over 8.5 total runs.

These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the current available odds.

Game info & first pitch details

Sunday's MLB game between the Diamondbacks and Yankees at Chase Field is scheduled to start at 4:10 PM ET.

• Who: New York Yankees vs. Arizona Diamondbacks
• Date: Sunday, September 20, 2026
• Time: 4:10 PM ET/1:10PM PT
• Venue: Chase Field

Conclusion

We predict the Diamondbacks, with a 53.6% win probability, will likely beat the Yankees in Sunday's MLB matchup.

Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.

This article's predictions and probabilities are generated by Dimers' proprietary MLB prediction model. Our editorial team reviews the resulting content for accuracy and presentation before publication.