Phillies vs. Twins prediction: Why Minnesota is favored to win Thursday's MLB matchup [8/13/2026]
Get Philadelphia Phillies vs Minnesota Twins predictions for MLB Thursday.
The Minnesota Twins will take on the Philadelphia Phillies, in what is expected to be a tight MLB game, at Field of Dreams on Thursday, starting at 7:30 PM ET.
Taj Bradley (9-4, 3.76 ERA) will be on the bump for the Twins, while the Phillies will counter with Aaron Nola (3-9, 5.47 ERA).
Dimers' advanced MLB model gives the Twins a slight edge with a 50.5% win probability over the Phillies.
This article offers an expanded analysis of Thursday's Phillies vs. Twins matchup, including best bets and picks.
Phillies vs. Twins prediction: Who will win and cover?
Our famous predictive model gives the Twins a 50.5% chance of beating the Phillies.
According to our model, the Phillies (+1.5) have a 65.4% chance of covering the run line, while the over/under total of 8.5 runs has a 54.9% chance of going over,.
Phillies vs. Twins odds [8/13/2026]
We have sourced the best MLB odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
- Run Line: Phillies +1.5 (-220) / Twins -1.5 (+180)
- Moneyline: Phillies +100, Twins +100
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Phillies vs. Twins picks and best bet
After matching our predictions against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets in this matchup. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
- Run line: Twins -1.5 @ +180 via DraftKings
- Moneyline: Twins @ +100 via Polymarket
- Total: Over 8.5 @ -104 via Novig
According to our best MLB bets, the top play to make on this game is Over 8.5 total runs.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.
Phillies vs. Twins game-day updates and essential details
Thursday's MLB game between the Twins and Phillies at Field of Dreams is scheduled to begin at 7:30 PM ET.
- Who: Philadelphia Phillies vs. Minnesota Twins
- Date: Thursday, August 13, 2026
- Time: 7:30 PM ET/4:30PM PT
- Venue: Field of Dreams
Conclusion
We predict the Twins, with a 50.5% win probability, will likely beat the Phillies in Thursday's MLB matchup.
Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.
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Jason Bevilacqua, an expert in MLB, NHL, NBA, MLS, and NFL, delivers game previews, best bets, and props. Since 2020, as Head of Social and Community at Dimers, he has contributed insightful articles utilizing data-driven models and simulations.
