Mets vs. Guardians prediction: Why Cleveland is favored to win Tuesday's MLB matchup [8/4/2026]
Get New York Mets vs Cleveland Guardians predictions for MLB Tuesday.
MLB action continues on Tuesday at 6:40 PM ET as the New York Mets square off with the Cleveland Guardians at Progressive Field.
The Guardians will have Joey Cantillo (8-6, 3.88 ERA) as their starting pitcher, pitting him against Sean Manaea (2-5, 4.42 ERA) for the Mets.
Dimers' proven MLB model gives the Guardians a slight edge with a 53.0% win probability over the Mets.
This article offers an expanded analysis of Tuesday's Mets vs. Guardians matchup, including best bets and picks.
Mets vs. Guardians prediction: Who will win and cover?
Our independent predictive model currently gives the Guardians a 53.0% chance of beating the Mets.
According to our model, the Mets (+1.5) have a 63.8% chance of covering the run line, while the over/under total of 7.5 runs has a 55.5% chance of going over,.
Mets vs. Guardians odds [8/4/2026]
We have sourced the best MLB odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | Mets | Guardians |
|---|---|---|
| Run Line | +1.5 (-156) | -1.5 (+150) |
| Moneyline | +141 | -142 |
| Total | o7.5 (-108) | u7.5 (+104) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Mets vs. Guardians picks and best bet
After matching our predictions against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets in this matchup. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Run Line | Mets +1.5 | -156 |
| Moneyline | Mets | +141 |
| Total | Over 7.5 | -108 |
According to our best MLB bets, the top play to make on this game is Mets to win.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.
Mets vs. Guardians game-day updates and essential details
Tuesday's MLB action between the Guardians and Mets at Progressive Field is scheduled to begin at 6:40 PM ET.
- Who: New York Mets vs. Cleveland Guardians
- Date: Tuesday, August 4, 2026
- Time: 6:40 PM ET/3:40PM PT
- Venue: Progressive Field
Conclusion
We predict the Guardians, with a 53.0% win probability, will likely beat the Mets in Tuesday's MLB matchup.
Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.
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Jason Bevilacqua, an expert in MLB, NHL, NBA, MLS, and NFL, delivers game previews, best bets, and props. Since 2020, as Head of Social and Community at Dimers, he has contributed insightful articles utilizing data-driven models and simulations.
