MLB postseason player props today: Thursday's best props include Aaron Nola [10/1/2026]

Aaron Nola over 0.5 walks allowed (-196)

• Edge: 8.8%
• Probability: 75.0%
• Game: Phillies vs. Braves (8:00PM ET)

Our model has flagged value on Phillies' Aaron Nola over 0.5 walks allowed. A probability of 75.0% gives this play an edge of 8.8% at -196 odds.

Dominic Smith to get a hit (+100)

• Edge: 4.1%
• Probability: 54.1%
• Game: Phillies vs. Braves (8:00PM ET)

Dominic Smith’s to get a hit prop shows a 54.1% probability and an 4.1% edge at +100 odds, according to our model.

Austin Riley over 1.5 bases (+185)

• Edge: 3.4%
• Probability: 38.4%
• Game: Phillies vs. Braves (8:00PM ET)

The data highlights value on Austin Riley over 1.5 bases, with simulations showing a 38.4% probability and a 3.4% edge at +185.

Dominic Smith to get an RBI (+390)

• Edge: 3.1%
• Probability: 23.5%
• Game: Phillies vs. Braves (8:00PM ET)

Our model finds value on Dominic Smith to get an RBI, with a 23.5% probability and an edge of 3.1% at +390 odds.

Justin Crawford over 0.5 to steal a base (+860)

• Edge: 8.8%
• Probability: 19.2%
• Game: Phillies vs. Braves (8:00PM ET)

Simulations indicate value on Justin Crawford over 0.5 to steal a base for Phillies, showing an edge of 8.8% at +860 odds.

Trea Turner over 0.5 to steal a base (+690)

• Edge: 3.2%
• Probability: 15.9%
• Game: Phillies vs. Braves (8:00PM ET)

Trea Turner’s to steal a base prop shows an edge of 3.2% at +690 odds, supported by a 15.9% probability according to our model.

Michael Harris II over 0.5 to steal a base (+1000)

• Edge: 4.5%
• Probability: 13.6%
• Game: Phillies vs. Braves (8:00PM ET)

Our model highlights value on Michael Harris II over 0.5 to steal a base for Braves, with a 13.6% probability and a 4.5% edge at +1000 odds.

Ozzie Albies over 0.5 to steal a base (+2000)

• Edge: 2.4%
• Probability: 7.2%
• Game: Phillies vs. Braves (8:00PM ET)

The data shows value on Ozzie Albies over 0.5 to steal a base, supported by a 7.2% probability at +2000 odds and an edge of 2.4%.

MLB Playoffs player prop summary: Thursday, October 1, 2026

A quick summary of today’s top props by probability according to our model as of 7:51PM ET:

Conclusion

For October 1, 2026, our MLB postseason prop bets feature players such as Aaron Nola, Dominic Smith and Austin Riley. Each pick is grounded in real-time data and advanced simulations to help you bet with clarity and purpose.

Built using automation and human oversight, this article draws on the latest data to deliver accurate, timely insights. If using this article for betting, Dimers promotes responsible gambling.