Oct 1, 2026
MLB postseason player props today: Thursday's best props include Aaron Nola [10/1/2026]
Read Article Phillies vs. Braves prediction: Why Atlanta is favored to win Game 3 of 2026 Wild Card Series
Updated: | First published:
Written by Dave Garofolo, Content Producer
Dimers' simulation model projects a 54.6% win probability for the Braves at Truist Park.
The Atlanta Braves will face the Philadelphia Phillies in Game 3 of their Wild Card Series at Truist Park on Thursday, starting at 8:00 PM ET.
Ray Kerr (0-0, 0.00 ERA) will be the starting pitcher for the Braves, up against Aaron Nola (0-0, 0.00 ERA) for the Phillies.
Dimers' proven MLB model gives the Braves a slight edge with a 54.6% win probability over the Phillies.
This article offers a complete Phillies vs. Braves prediction, including best bets and picks.
Phillies vs. Braves prediction and odds
Using trusted machine learning and data, we have re-simulated the result of Thursday's MLB matchup between the Phillies and Braves, forming part of our MLB predictions coverage.
Our independent predictive model gives the Braves a 54.6% chance of beating the Phillies. According to our model, the Braves (+1.5) have a 67.0% chance of covering the run line, while the over/under total of 7.5 runs has a 55.2% chance of going over.
Latest betting odds
We have sourced the best MLB odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
- Run Line: Phillies -1.5 (+178) / Braves +1.5 (-182)
- Moneyline: Phillies +104, Braves -108
- Total: Over/Under 7.5 (+104/-104)
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Model picks and best bet
After matching our probabilities against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets in this matchup. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
- Run line: Braves +1.5 @ 65¢ via Novig
- Moneyline: Braves @ 52¢ via Novig
- Total: Over 7.5 @ 49¢ via Novig
According to our MLB best bets, the top play to make on this game is Over 7.5 total runs.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the current available odds.
Game info & first pitch details
Thursday's MLB game between the Braves and Phillies at Truist Park is scheduled to commence at 8:00 PM ET.
- Who: Philadelphia Phillies vs. Atlanta Braves
- Date: Thursday, October 1, 2026
- Time: 8:00 PM ET/5:00PM PT
- Venue: Truist Park
Conclusion
We predict the Braves, with a 54.6% win probability, will likely beat the Phillies in Thursday's MLB matchup.
Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.
This article's predictions and probabilities are generated by Dimers' proprietary MLB prediction model. Our editorial team reviews the resulting content for accuracy and presentation before publication.
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Dave Garofolo uses sophisticated AI-driven analytics to make predictions and evaluate player performances in the NBA, MLB, NFL, NHL, NCAAM, and PGA TOUR tournaments, crafting insightful game and prop previews.
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