MLB postseason player props today: Wednesday's best props include Kevin Gausman [9/30/2026]

Kevin Gausman over 1.5 earned runs (-140)

• Edge: 5.4%
• Probability: 63.7%
• Game: Cubs vs. Padres (10:00PM ET)

Our model has flagged value on Cubs' Kevin Gausman over 1.5 earned runs. A probability of 63.7% gives this play an edge of 5.4% at -140 odds.

Nick Pivetta over 1.5 earned runs (-115)

• Edge: 8.3%
• Probability: 61.8%
• Game: Cubs vs. Padres (10:00PM ET)

Nick Pivetta’s earned runs prop shows a 61.8% probability and an 8.3% edge at -115 odds, according to our model.

Nick Pivetta over 3.5 hits allowed (-106)

• Edge: 4.2%
• Probability: 55.6%
• Game: Cubs vs. Padres (10:00PM ET)

The data highlights value on Nick Pivetta over 3.5 hits allowed, with simulations showing a 55.6% probability and a 4.2% edge at -106.

Kevin Gausman over 4.5 hits allowed (+117)

• Edge: 2.6%
• Probability: 48.7%
• Game: Cubs vs. Padres (10:00PM ET)

Our model finds value on Kevin Gausman over 4.5 hits allowed, with a 48.7% probability and an edge of 2.6% at +117 odds.

Kevin Gausman over 1.5 walks allowed (+144)

• Edge: 2.8%
• Probability: 43.8%
• Game: Cubs vs. Padres (10:00PM ET)

Simulations indicate value on Kevin Gausman over 1.5 walks allowed for Cubs, showing an edge of 2.8% at +144 odds.

Austin Hays over 1.5 bases (+210)

• Edge: 2.2%
• Probability: 34.5%
• Game: Cubs vs. Padres (10:00PM ET)

Austin Hays’s bases prop shows an edge of 2.2% at +210 odds, supported by a 34.5% probability according to our model.

Jake Cronenworth over 1.5 bases (+280)

• Edge: 2.4%
• Probability: 28.8%
• Game: Cubs vs. Padres (10:00PM ET)

Our model highlights value on Jake Cronenworth over 1.5 bases for Padres, with a 28.8% probability and a 2.4% edge at +280 odds.

Dustin Harris over 0.5 to steal a base (+480)

• Edge: 2.1%
• Probability: 19.3%
• Game: Cubs vs. Padres (10:00PM ET)

The data shows value on Dustin Harris over 0.5 to steal a base, supported by a 19.3% probability at +480 odds and an edge of 2.1%.

Matt Shaw over 0.5 to steal a base (+675)

• Edge: 3.6%
• Probability: 16.5%
• Game: Cubs vs. Padres (10:00PM ET)

A 3.6% edge on the over 0.5 to steal a base line makes Matt Shaw a value play in Cubs vs. Padres, supported by a 16.5% probability at +675 odds.

Ethan Salas over 0.5 to steal a base (+1300)

• Edge: 2.1%
• Probability: 9.2%
• Game: Cubs vs. Padres (10:00PM ET)

Simulations show value on Ethan Salas over 0.5 to steal a base here, with a 9.2% probability and 2.1% edge at +1300 odds.

MLB player prop summary: Wednesday, September 30, 2026

A quick summary of today’s top props by probability according to our model as of 9:56PM ET:

Conclusion

For September 30, 2026, our MLB prop bets feature players such as Kevin Gausman, Nick Pivetta and Austin Hays. Each pick is grounded in real-time data and advanced simulations to help you bet with clarity and purpose.

Built using automation and human oversight, this article draws on the latest data to deliver accurate, timely insights. If using this article for betting, Dimers encourages responsible gambling.