Home run predictions and picks: Top bet for Wednesday has +1100 odds [9/30/2026]

• Kyle Schwarber (Phillies): 20.4% probability
• Yordan Alvarez (Astros): 17.4%
• Ben Rice (Yankees): 15.0%
• Christian Walker (Astros): 14.7%
• Bryce Harper (Phillies): 14.7%
• Fernando Tatis (Padres): 14.1%
• Jazz Chisholm (Yankees): 14.0%
• Isaac Paredes (Astros): 13.9%
• Spencer Jones (Yankees): 13.7%
• Trent Grisham (Yankees): 13.0%

Our analysis shows Schwarber leads today's MLB home run predictions with a 20.4% chance to go yard, followed by Yordan Alvarez (17.4%) and Ben Rice (15.0%).

Christian Walker and Bryce Harper are among several other sluggers to rank inside the top 10.

Want the full list of home run props today—including every player's HR probability for Wednesday? Check out today's HR and hitter projections and sort by “To Hit HR” to see every player’s probability of going deep.

Wednesday's home run picks [9/30/2026]

After running 10,000 simulations per matchup and weighing key variables like weather and pitching form, Dimers Pro’s data highlights today’s top home run prop.

Sean Murphy (Braves) to hit a home run

• Probability: 11%
• Odds: +1100
• Edge: 2.7%
• Pitching matchup: Cristopher Sánchez
• More game projections: Phillies vs. Braves prediction (2:00 PM EDT)

Though outside today’s top 10 home run projections, Atlanta slugger Sean Murphy rates as a value play at +1100 with BetRivers, showing a 2.7% edge.

Against Phillies starter Cristopher Sánchez, the data supports Murphy as one of Wednesday’s strongest value spots among available home run props.

Pro users have access to a total of seven home run betting edges today, plus hit and RBI projections, pitcher props, and more—perfect for building smarter MLB parlays and round robins.

Conclusion

For September 30, 2026, our MLB home run predictions are locked in, with sluggers like Kyle Schwarber, Yordan Alvarez and Ben Rice projected to be among the most powerful bats in today’s games. But it's Sean Murphy who emerges with the day’s strongest model-backed value, supported by a 2.7% edge at +1100 odds.

Dive into more MLB player projections with our list of Wednesday's top 10 pitchers by projected strikeouts

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