MLB player props today: Wednesday's best props include Chris Bassitt [8/19/2026]

Chris Bassitt over 4.5 hits allowed (-161)

• Edge: 9.9%
• Probability: 71.6%
• Game: Yankees vs. Orioles (6:35PM ET)

Our model has flagged value on Baltimore's Chris Bassitt over 4.5 hits allowed. A probability of 71.6% gives this play an edge of 9.9% at -161 odds.

Drew Rasmussen under 5.5 strikeouts (-160)

• Edge: 9.7%
• Probability: 71.2%
• Game: Blue Jays vs. Rays (6:40PM ET)

Drew Rasmussen’s strikeouts prop shows a 71.2% probability and an 9.7% edge at -160 odds, according to our model.

Parker Messick under 5.5 hits allowed (-156)

• Edge: 9.9%
• Probability: 70.9%
• Game: Giants vs. Guardians (6:40PM ET)

The data highlights value on Parker Messick under 5.5 hits allowed, with simulations showing a 70.9% probability and a 9.9% edge at -156.

Parker Messick under 18.5 outs recorded (-186)

• Edge: 3.0%
• Probability: 68.0%
• Game: Giants vs. Guardians (6:40PM ET)

Our model finds value on Parker Messick under 18.5 outs recorded, with a 68.0% probability and an edge of 3.0% at -186 odds.

Matthew Liberatore over 4.5 hits allowed (-134)

• Edge: 8.0%
• Probability: 65.3%
• Game: Cardinals vs. Reds (6:40PM ET)

Simulations indicate value on Matthew Liberatore over 4.5 hits allowed for St. Louis, showing an edge of 8.0% at -134 odds.

Dustin May over 1.5 earned runs (-137)

• Edge: 6.9%
• Probability: 64.7%
• Game: Mariners vs. Brewers (7:40PM ET)

Dustin May’s earned runs prop shows an edge of 6.9% at -137 odds, supported by a 64.7% probability according to our model.

Max Scherzer under 5.5 hits allowed (-146)

• Edge: 5.1%
• Probability: 64.4%
• Game: Blue Jays vs. Rays (6:40PM ET)

Our model highlights value on Max Scherzer under 5.5 hits allowed for Toronto, with a 64.4% probability and a 5.1% edge at -146 odds.

Michael King over 4.5 strikeouts (-130)

• Edge: 6.5%
• Probability: 63.1%
• Game: Padres vs. Mets (1:10PM ET)

The data shows value on Michael King over 4.5 strikeouts, supported by a 63.1% probability at -130 odds and an edge of 6.5%.

Logan Gilbert under 6.5 strikeouts (-113)

• Edge: 9.2%
• Probability: 62.2%
• Game: Mariners vs. Brewers (7:40PM ET)

A 9.2% edge on the under 4.5 strikeouts line makes Logan Gilbert a value play in Mariners vs. Brewers, supported by a 62.2% probability at -113 odds.

Clay Holmes over 1.5 earned runs (-142)

• Edge: 2.5%
• Probability: 61.2%
• Game: White Sox vs. Cubs (2:20PM ET)

Simulations show value on Clay Holmes over 1.5 earned runs here, with a 61.2% probability and 2.5% edge at -142 odds.

MLB player prop summary: Wednesday, August 19, 2026

A quick summary of today’s top props by probability according to our model as of 6:20AM ET:

Conclusion

For August 19, 2026, our MLB prop bets feature players such as Chris Bassitt, Drew Rasmussen and Parker Messick. Each pick is grounded in real-time data and advanced simulations to help you bet with clarity and purpose.

Built using automation and human oversight, this article draws on the latest data to deliver accurate, timely insights. If using this article for betting, Dimers promotes responsible gambling.