Today’s top 10 most likely home run hitters, plus +780 pick for Sunday [8/2/2026]

Our analysis shows Kurtz leads today's MLB home run predictions with a 23.6% chance to go deep, followed by Yordan Alvarez (20.1%) and Shohei Ohtani (20.0%).

Riley Greene and Cal Raleigh are among several other sluggers to crack the top 10.

Want the full list of home run props today—including every player's HR prediction for Sunday? Check out today's HR and hitter projections and sort by “To Hit HR” to see every player’s probability of going deep.

Sunday's home run picks [8/2/2026]

After running 10,000 simulations per matchup and assessing key variables like weather and pitching form, Dimers Pro’s data highlights today’s top home run prop.

Spencer Jones (Yankees) to hit a home run

• Probability: 13.4%
• Odds: +780
• Edge: 2.0%
• Game: Yankees vs. Cubs (2:20 PM EDT)
• Pitching matchup: Colin Rea

Though outside today’s top 10 home run projections, New York slugger Spencer Jones rates as a value play at +780 with DraftKings Sportsbook, showing a 2.0% edge.

Against Cubs starter Colin Rea, the data supports Jones as one of Sunday’s strongest value spots among available home run props.

Pro users have access to all of our home run predictions today, plus hit and RBI projections, pitcher props, and more—perfect for building smarter MLB parlays and round robins.

Conclusion

For August 2, 2026, our MLB home run predictions are locked in, with sluggers like Nick Kurtz, Yordan Alvarez and Shohei Ohtani projected to be among the most powerful bats in today’s games. But it's Spencer Jones who emerges with the day’s strongest model-backed value, supported by a 2.0% edge at +780 odds.

Dive into more MLB player projections with our list of Sunday's top 10 pitchers by projected strikeouts

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