MLB picks today: Friday's MLB best bets include Rays vs. Phillies play [9/25/2026]

Rays vs. Phillies Over 6.5 runs (-104)

• Edge: 6.7%
• Probability: 57.7%
• Matchup: Rays vs. Phillies (6:40PM ET)

Our model has identified value on Over 6.5 runs in Rays vs. Phillies at 51¢ odds. A 57.7% probability produces an edge of 6.7%, making this the strongest play for today's MLB slate.

Dodgers vs. Giants Over 7.5 runs (+113)

• Edge: 6.6%
• Probability: 53.6%
• Matchup: Dodgers vs. Giants (10:15PM ET)

Dodgers vs. Giants over 7.5 runs carries a 6.6% edge and a probability of 53.6% at 47¢ odds, according to our model.

Reds vs. Blue Jays Over 7.5 runs (-104)

• Edge: 6.2%
• Probability: 57.2%
• Matchup: Reds vs. Blue Jays (7:07PM ET)

Reds vs. Blue Jays Over 7.5 runs at 51¢ odds shows a 6.2% edge, supported by a 57.2% probability in simulations.

Guardians vs. Royals over 7.5 runs (-104)

• Edge: 5.3%
• Probability: 56.2%
• Matchup: Guardians vs. Royals (7:40PM ET)

A 5.3% edge and 56.2% probability make Guardians vs. Royals over 7.5 runs a value play in the Guardians vs. Royals matchup, per our model.

Angels vs. Mariners Over 6.5 runs (-122)

• Edge: 5.1%
• Probability: 60.1%
• Matchup: Angels vs. Mariners (10:10PM ET)

Angels vs. Mariners Over 6.5 runs at 55¢ presents a 5.1% edge, with simulations resulting in a probability of 60.1%.

Rangers vs. Twins Over 7.5 runs (-104)

• Edge: 5.1%
• Probability: 56.1%
• Matchup: Rangers vs. Twins (8:10PM ET)

Our model finds value on Over 7.5 runs in Rangers vs. Twins at 51¢, supported by an edge of 5.1%.

Diamondbacks vs. Padres Over 7.5 runs (+108)

• Edge: 5.1%
• Probability: 53.1%
• Matchup: Diamondbacks vs. Padres (9:40PM ET)

Our model has uncovered value on Diamondbacks vs. Padres Over 7.5 runs at 48¢. A 53.1% probability produces a 5.1% edge, making this a strong play for today's MLB action.

Rockies vs. White Sox Over 8.5 runs (+108)

• Edge: 4.6%
• Probability: 52.7%
• Matchup: Rockies vs. White Sox (7:40PM ET)

A 4.6% edge on a 52.7% probability makes Over 8.5 runs at 48¢a solid value play in today's Rockies vs. White Sox matchup.

Pirates vs. TigersOver 7.5 runs (-113)

• Edge: 4.4%
• Probability: 57.5%
• Matchup: Pirates vs. Tigers (6:40PM ET)

Our model projects value on Over 7.5 runs at 53¢. A 57.5% probability produces a 4.4% edge, making the Over the favorable side in today's matchup.

Royals ML (+122)

• Edge: 3.1%
• Probability: 48.2%
• Matchup: Guardians vs. Royals (7:40PM ET)

Rounding out our top 10 bets, Royals to defeat Guardians at 45¢ shows a 48.2% probability and a 3.1% edge.

MLB best bets summary: Friday, 9/25/2026

As of 1:03AM ET, here are our top MLB bets by edge recommended by our model:

List of upcoming MLB games to bet on [9/25/2026]

• Pirates vs. Tigers (6:40PM ET, Friday)
• Rays vs. Phillies (6:40PM ET, Friday)
• Reds vs. Blue Jays (7:07PM ET, Friday)
• Braves vs. Marlins (7:10PM ET, Friday)
• Cardinals vs. Brewers (7:40PM ET, Friday)
• Rockies vs. White Sox (7:40PM ET, Friday)
• Guardians vs. Royals (7:40PM ET, Friday)
• Rangers vs. Twins (8:10PM ET, Friday)
• D-Backs vs. Padres (9:40PM ET, Friday)
• Angels vs. Mariners (10:10PM ET, Friday)
• Dodgers vs. Giants (10:15PM ET, Friday)

Conclusion

Our MLB best bets are locked and loaded for September 25, 2026, featuring plays such as over 6.5 runs in the Rays vs. Phillies matchup and over 7.5 runs in the Dodgers vs. Giants matchup. Powered by advanced simulations, these picks are here to boost your betting game.

Our predictions are drawn from current data to help you make informed decisions. For additional resources and advice, head to our Responsible Gambling hub.

All odds and probabilities in this article are correct and accurate at the time of publication.