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Read Article Cubs vs. Pirates prediction: Why Pittsburgh is favored to win Friday's MLB matchup [7/24/2026]
Updated: | First published:
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Written by Dave Garofolo, Content Producer
Get Chicago Cubs vs Pittsburgh Pirates predictions for MLB Friday.
The Pittsburgh Pirates and Chicago Cubs will lock horns in MLB action at PNC Park on Friday, starting at 6:40 PM ET.
The Pirates will send Jared Jones (2-1, 4.05 ERA) to the mound, pitting him against Matthew Boyd (6-1, 4.15 ERA) for the Cubs.
Based on updated simulation results, Dimers' proven MLB model gives the Pirates a slight edge with a 50.5% win probability over the Cubs.
This article offers a closer look at Friday's Cubs vs. Pirates matchup, including best bets and picks.
Cubs vs. Pirates prediction: Who will win and cover?
Using trusted machine learning and data, we have simulated the result of Friday's MLB game between the Cubs and Pirates, forming part of our MLB predictions coverage.
Our independent predictive model currently gives the Pirates a 50.5% chance of beating the Cubs.
According to our model, the Cubs (+1.5) have a 65.3% chance of covering the run line, while the 7.5-run over/under has a 58.1% chance of going over,.
Cubs vs. Pirates odds [7/24/2026]
We have researched the best MLB odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | Cubs | Pirates |
|---|---|---|
| Run Line | +1.5 (-220) | -1.5 (+180) |
| Moneyline | +100 | -102 |
| Total | o7.5 (-117) | u7.5 (+115) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Cubs vs. Pirates picks and best bet
After matching our predictions against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets in this matchup. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Run Line | Pirates -1.5 | +180 |
| Moneyline | Pirates | -102 |
| Total | Over 7.5 | -117 |
According to our MLB best bets, the top play to make on this game is Over 7.5 total runs.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.
Cubs vs. Pirates game-day updates and essential details
Friday's MLB matchup between the Pirates and Cubs at PNC Park is scheduled to commence at 6:40 PM ET.
- Who: Chicago Cubs vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
- Date: Friday, July 24, 2026
- Time: 6:40 PM ET/3:40PM PT
- Venue: PNC Park
Conclusion
We predict the Pirates, with a 50.5% win probability, will likely beat the Cubs in Friday's MLB matchup.
Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.
Dave Garofolo uses sophisticated AI-driven analytics to make predictions and evaluate player performances in the NBA, MLB, NFL, NHL, NCAAM, and PGA TOUR tournaments, crafting insightful game and prop previews.
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